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"New" Democrats Flood the Primary


by: Justice

Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 01:17 PM CST


(I have some additional analysis of the voter file, looking deeper into the data but from 2002 forward, which I'll try to post today. Both are an interesting read and express why no one in Travis County has a real sense of what is going on with their elections.   - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)

Here are some interesting statistics from Dusty Knight, Chief Deputy to Nelda Spears, Tax Collector, about early voting in the Democratic Primary:

96,801 early voted as Democrats in Travis County

47,531 were first time voters in a primary.

    The "first time voters" means it was the first time to vote in a PRIMARY. Of the 47,531 first time primary voters, 34,622 had voted in a previous general or city election, leaving 12,909 (13% of the total)who have never voted at all before).

49,270 had a voting history in Primary elections:.

    37,924 had only voted in Democratic Primary in the past.
     4,768 had only voted in Republican Primary in the past.
     6,578 had voted in either Democratic or Republican Primary in the past.

We've got a Democratic Primary in this Strongly Blue County that (so far) shows that

So:
13% have never voted before at all
36% are what we might call "independent" (i.e., General Election-only voters)
12% are former Republican voters (11,346 of the total)

That's means that 61% of the people voting in the Democratic Primary are not traditional Democratic voters.

"First time" (in a Primary) voters by age:
over 60     5,819
50 - 60     7,174
40 - 50     7,974
30 - 40   11,777
20 - 30   12,662
18 - 20     2,084

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One of those first time voters (5.00 / 1)
may be the 65 year old African American lady I registered to vote that was preparing to vote for the first time ever.   She, and a soldier headed to Iraq, made my day and made the long hours worth it.

Fabulous (0.00 / 0)
Her first vote at 65 - sweet.  I hope she stays engaged and continues to vote.

[ Parent ]
When the full returns come in ... (0.00 / 0)
... it will be interesting to see how many voted in each election (president, senator, etc).

President will undoubtedly have the highest turnout (like the top ballot position always does). My guess is that this year it will be much higher. I think a lot of these first time primary voters will only vote in the Presidential Primary and scroll down, past Andy Brown, and hit submit. I think their will be a very large difference between the Presidential and any other election on the ballot, in total number of votes.

Last Presidential Primary there was about a 200,000 (about 25%) vote difference between total votes for President and the next closest statewide vote. I would assume that number would be much larger this time around. I'll go way out on a limb and say that the Presidential Primary will have twice as many as the next closest statewide election (even though one of those races is the Senate race).


FYI - For Dallas County (0.00 / 0)
There were:

297,000 votes in the Democratice Presidential races;

209,000 in the US Senate race;

177,000 combined votes in the US House races (some of which were not contested and one that had no Democrat);

183,000 votes in the Railroad Commissioner's race;

190-196,000 votes in the contested Supreme Court races;

between 186-184,000 votes in the county-wide contested judge races;

226,000 votes in the hotly contested Sherriff's race; and,

196,000 votes in the hotly contested Tax Assessor's race.

Just interesting numbers and food for thought.  

Thanks,
Eric Roberson
Democratic Candidate for Congress, CD-32
www.ericroberson.org
enroberson@yahoo.com


[ Parent ]
New Democrats (0.00 / 0)
Those 12%"new" Democrats might be like some Republican voters I chatted with in line for early voting last week - voting for Hillary in the Democratic primary. The Texas Two-Step? Maybe it's a three-step.

No three-step (0.00 / 0)
A bunch of us came to vote for Obama, tried of Bushes and Clintons. Get to vote in first real contested DA's race in Travis County for over 30 years, plus get a free shot at Maxey. What a deal. Zimmerman is too off the wall for most moderate R's and independents.

Most will stick with Obama in fall, the R's need a rest. Good government requires a change in the White House party every so often. So this 12% is mostly likely split 60/40 for Obama with Maxey taking a 90/10 beating. No feel for DA's race. Will not even bother to guess.


[ Parent ]
new voters (0.00 / 0)
I saw one election like this before in 1988 in Harris County. Jesse Jackson was running against Dukakis. Literally, thousands of new voters turned out and they were there only for Jackson; it was truly and amazing and awe inspiring sight.  as for down ballot races, most of these new voters paid little attention to traditional endorsements and simply cast a ballot for the first name on their ballots.   To those who follow  polls, however, it is simply impossible to know or predict how they will vote.  Look to those early vote locations in areas that you think will support your favorite presidential candidate.  If you are seeing huge turnouts in areas of African American voters or younger voters, it's a good night for Barack.  

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