The Future of the Presidential Race

The Time Rapidly Approaches (0.00 / 0)

When I think that Clinton needs to step down for the good of the party.  I was glad that things were tight enough for her to stay in the race after Super Tuesday because Obama needed to feel some body blows and we needed to see if he had a glass chin or not.  He survived and kept his momentum but he needs to work on his counter-punching.  But if March 4th goes the way it's looking and Obama wins either Texas or Ohio or draws in both states with no delegate gains for Clinton, the only way she can win is thru the divisive measures described above.  

Dean has talked about bringing the candidates together to reach an agreement and I think he could also lean on the super-d's to tilt them towards a resolution and I hope that he'll be able to pull off one of these strategies to get to a nominee before the convention.  Sure, it'd be a hoot to have a brokered convention--quite seriously it would be very interesting to watch but it would lead to a mad scramble to pull things together for the general election and would give McCain a huge advantage.  I kept saying that the race was Obama's to lose after Super Tuesday--he didn't implode and instead ran off a string of victories.  I hope that Sen. Clinton will prove her critics wrong after March 4th and do what's right for her party and her country.  I guess we'll just see what happens.

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by: morisey @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 20:30:13 PM CST

You're missing a wild card, (3.00 / 1)

namely the superdelegates who commit during the primary season. Lately, they've been flocking to Obama, which is how he's gotten a 100-delegate lead. Since mid-February, he's gained as much among the superdelegates as among the pledged delegates.

Now imagine that Clinton wins Texas by 8% and Ohio by 15%. Throw in a big win in Rhode Island and an upset in Vermont, so she can claim the headlines of a clean sweep. The superdelegates would stop flocking to Obama and would give her a chance to fight in Pennsylvania.

A month is a long time. In that time, if McCain's attacks on Obama stuck, and if Obama started polling badly against McCain, and if national polls put Clinton back on top of Obama, then she'd have a strong case to make in Pennsylvania. A big win in PA would then get the superdelegates flowing her way.

The next step would be to beat a damaged Obama in North Carolina, and to get the press to focus on total delegates rather than pledged delegates. With a blowout win in Puerto Rico to close out the season, the superdelegates would coalesce around her long before the convention, and she'd be able to use the convention to reunite the party.

Will that happen? Probably not (and I hope not). But it's not impossible. As we're seeing for Obama, momentum can be very powerful.

For the record, my prediction is that Clinton will win Ohio by 3-5% (losing on election day but having plenty of margin from the early votes), lose Texas by 5-10% in the primary (more in the caucus), and pull out of the race on March 5 or 6.  

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by: LSadun @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 20:43:53 PM CST

Imagine (0.00 / 0)

I think "imagine" is the key word in your post--and not in a bad way, I'm not slamming you at all because given the March 4th results you hypothesize, it could happen.  It's hard to imagine simply because it goes against the grain of the movement in the polls.  I don't believe the real numbers given by the polls b/c I don't think the pollsters have a basis to create an accurate model this time around.  But as long as their methodology is consistent, they are accurate measures of momentum and it appears to all be going in Obama's direction.  

But, if March 4th does defy my imagination and proves to be the firewall that Clinton is hoping it will be, well, your dominoes could very well fall as you describe.  I too hope that's not the case.  I also think it's more likely that if we wind up with Clinton as our nominee it will be because of something similar to what you've described than the Black Ops version above.  Black Ops version means we lose in November.

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by: morisey @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 21:05:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed (2.00 / 1)

Clinton needs a political miracle bigger than New Hampshire on Tuesday, and if she doesn't get it she needs to drop out.  

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by: LSadun @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:17:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Falling dominoes aren't enough (0.00 / 0)

That's the point. A super delegate reversal of the pledged delegate outcome will destroy the convention and our November chances. I am not, of course, allowing for some major course-reversing Obama mishap of some kind. A run of bad press doesn't count. Clinton cannot catch up in delegates.

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by: Glenn Smith @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:17:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Think of what happened in February (0.00 / 0)

Just 4 weeks ago, everybody but the Obama campaign was counting delegates, not pledged delegates. The Obama campaign did an incredible job of convincing the media, and the country, to look at pledged delegates instead. They also gained so many superdelegates that the difference between pledged and total doesn't seem so important any more.  But those gains for Obama could be reversed. Clinton could significantly narrow the lead in pledged delegates, regain a big lead in superdelegates, get everybody talking about her being ahead, and still have a few months before the convention for people to get used to the idea that total delegates are what matters.

Right now, the thought of having the superdelegates overrule the pledged delegates is frightening, and lots of people are swearing to abandon the party if that happens. But emotions can change quickly, and August is a long way away.

I don't think that will happen, and I don't want it to happen, but it's hardly impossible, and it's not as disastrous as people think. Clinton still has a much better chance of becoming president than Joe Biden ever had. (BTW, Intrade gives her a 9% chance) And if I were Clinton, that small chance would be enough to keep me going all-out for 4 more days.  

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by: LSadun @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:57:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think everyone realizes this except (3.00 / 1)

the Clinton camp.

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by: TheUNTEdge @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:07:06 PM CST

Doing the Math (3.00 / 1)

MSNBC's Chuck Todd did the math after Super Tuesday and his numbers demonstrated that Clinton would have to win Texas and Ohio by 15 to 20 point margins in order to say in the race and take it to the convention floor. Of course at that time, she was favored in those states by 20 points. Now we have a situation where the point difference is in the single digits. Unless Obama gets caught with his pants down in a mens room somewhere, Hillary doesn't have a chance of pulling this thing out of the fire. She's done.

obamavets.com

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by: obamavet @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 06:07:47 AM CST

Glenn... Oh dear... (0.00 / 0)

You're going off the deep end...

>>>And what will the effect of such a strategy be? Does anyone really believe Obama's supporters will return to vote for Clinton in November. Not in great numbers. It will split the Democratic party in half. And it will likely dramatically set back efforts in places like Texas to rebuild the Party.<<<

Oh.Come.On. That's no more valid an argument than saying that Hillary's voters won't come out in November if Obama is the candidate. Face it, BOTH 'sides' need each other regardless of who the candidate is.

Anyone who thinks Obama will have an easier time in the general than Hillary is extraordinarily naive. The R's are going to make this brutal and nasty for the DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE. They don't care who it is.

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by: McBlogger @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 12:14:03 PM CST

Don't follow your logic (0.00 / 0)

Nothing in my analysis suggests the GOP will not be vicious in the general.

I am just suggesting that a strategy that requires overcoming the likely pledged delegate count at the convention will have consequences in November.

What is naive, I believe, is thinking that there won't be a dramatic negative reaction among African American voters, for instance, if Obama goes to the convention with more delegates and leaves without the nomination.

I frankly think a similar reaction would take place if the situation was reversed, and Clinton went to Denver ahead in pledged delegates but came away with the nomination. But we are not facing that circumstance.

I understand that Clinton supporters do not what to contemplate this. But the brute fact is she can't catch up in delegates.

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by: Glenn Smith @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 15:42:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

those are the rules (0.00 / 0)

and we must follow them.  Super delegates are part of the equation and have been for 30 years.  If Obama wins decisively next week, the super delegates will follow, as has been the trend over the last month.  If not, then Hillary has every right and should press every advantage she has.

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 20:44:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Rules? (3.00 / 1)

Will you volunteer to go after the fact and explain to 90 percent of the voting African Americans that the first black person to earn a major party nomination for president had the nomination taken from him by some Democratic insiders they don't know and didn't vote for -- but all of it was done by the book, by the rules?

And young voters who believe they are changing the world? And will be told that some rules and a little ruthlessness say otherwise?

I'm not disputing the rules. I am saying there will be significant consequences to the Clinton strategy should it succeed. We can't pretend there won't be a reaction.

And I would expect that if this situation was different, and Hillary went to Denver with a delegate lead and an older white man took the nomination from her by clever use of "rules" that there would be just such a backlash among her core supporters. I'd be a part of that backlash, too.

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by: Glenn Smith @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 21:24:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

sure (0.00 / 0)

I'm always willing to explain reason and reality to the young 'uns.  They certainly could use some help in that regard (and always have -- I include myself, a 2000 Nader voter to be a great example).  I'll also explain to them how unfair the process was and how they can work to change the system by eliminating super delegates and caucuses altogether from the nomination process.  It's certainly a more responsible approach than advancing a narrative that one candidate "stole" the election from another and trying to incite riots at the convention (as at least one Obama supporter has already done).

Regarding the tables being turned, advocates of a particular candidate will always act in a partisan manner.  No changing that.

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 21:34:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The CW (0.00 / 0)

states that a protracted struggle in the Democratic primary is bad for the party.  It allows McCain to consolidate his forces and it divides the Democrats.

But I wonder if that is true.  This Democratic primary is such a big news story that it has sucked all of the oxygen in the room away from the Republicans (especially after McCain gained a commanding lead).  McCain has launched pot shots at Obama, but they're barely picked up in the press, and when they are they haven't received much air time due to the overly-saturated coverage of the Obama vs. Clinton duel.

The Obama folks love to act like he's a martyr of a relentless Clinton attack machine, but the punches she's sent his way haven't exactly been hard hitting.  Both camps have specialized in the art of faux outrage which makes this race seem dirtier than it actually is.  Obama might be better off facing Hillary's pulled punches the next three months rather than to face "for real" shots from the Republican hit machine.  And if HRC wins a significant victory next week, the Repubs won't have a front-running target to hit anyway.  That seems unlikely now, but it could happen.

Will a protracted race divide the party?  Please.  Where are we gonna go, Nader?  We tried that once and it didn't work out too well.  At the end of the day, we're Democrats and will do the right thing.  If not, then we deserve our just desserts.

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 20:42:46 PM CST