TX Primary: Early Vote Totals, Through Sunday 2/24

I feel giddy - I think it's called hope (3.00 / 1)

I believe that things are going to change, and it starts in Texas.  Texans have been starving and dying of thirst for real Democracy.  It tastes good.  

The Texas Observer says we should thank Robert Duncan for killing the bill that would have moved the Texas primary to Super-Tuesday.  Well thank you Senator Duncan and your 10 Senate colleagues for helping us out.

Royal Masset has a good article in the latest Texas Observer too, called The Republican Conundrum.

If there is a major change in Texas politics in 2008 it will be caused by the Democrats. Even I have been chagrined to learn that my 13-year-old son Ernesto favors Barack Obama. The world is changing.

The whole issue of this The Observer is quite good.  

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by: sonia @ Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 21:11:52 PM CST

I'll take that bet. (0.00 / 0)

I think it's in fact likely that early turnout will top 800,000 voters, just in those 15 counties. In 2006 and 2004 overal early turnout was equal to about 2.5X the first week's early turnout in the Big 15. That gets you to 900,000 votes right there.

The 15 counties account for 62% of the population, but probably more of the state's Democrats. even if it's 80% of them we're talking about 1.125M early voters statewide. And what's the statewide early/election day ratio? I heard 40% of all voters vote early statewide ... that'd put it at 2.8M, which is the high end of what I suggested a few days ago (roughly 90,000 per CD).

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by: nbeaudrot @ Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 21:50:34 PM CST

Request! (0.00 / 0)

Here in Dallas I've had a lot of my GOP friends say they are crossing over to vote for Obama. It really does seem to be a movement. Are these numbers reflective somewhat of that?

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by: mightcan @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 08:29:34 AM CST

Huckabee's collapse will play a role (0.00 / 0)

In the last two weeks, the GOP race in Texas has gone from close (McCain by 4) to a blowout (McCain by 25). That gives independents and moderate Republicans more reason to cross over and vote in our primary. But that's really hard to measure until after the election. You'd have to go through the updated voter files, county by county, and see how many people voted both in the R primary in 2004 and the D primary in 2008.  

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by: LSadun @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 08:49:49 AM CST

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Even with the vote history (0.00 / 0)

With the massive increase in turnout, half the voters will be participating in their first primary. Not only that, a much lower percentage of Bush voters participated in the 2004 R primary than Kerry voters in the 2004 D primary.

I'd estimate that Bush voters make up >25% of the D primary turnout this time. Many will go back to the GOP in November, but more will stay if their candidate is on the ballot. My last poll even had Bush voters voting in the primary for Obama who would vote in the general for Clinton, and vice versa. The GOP will be the heavy favorite to take Texas no matter which candidates, but it's getting closer.

Texas Economics

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by: IVR Polls @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 11:15:01 AM CST

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Some Republicans organize for Obama (0.00 / 0)

Click here:  

http://www.republicansforobama...

Just look at the early voting results in Collin County, which in the past has been the most Republican county in the state.

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by: Tom Blackwell @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 15:19:46 PM CST

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Pro Hope (0.00 / 0)

I joined my extended family in central Texas a few years ago, and am getting ready to vote (and caucus) in the Democratic primary.  

When I was a 12-year-old girl, back in '72 on Long Island, NY, I delivered Newsday every afternoon on my bicycle, en route to the McGovern office, where I volunteered.  Newsday is a highly reputable paper with a large distribution on Long Island, which I read regularly along with the NYT.

This background brought me in frequent contact with Holocaust survivors.  I learned from them that the rationale "I was only doing my job" for doing something immoral or unethical holds very little water indeed.

Perhaps these are the the reasons this Newsday investigative piece has resonated with me so deeply.

I believe it deserves attention of progressive Texans who are still undecided and who have not yet voted.

http://www.newsday.com/service...

Since Newsday saved the most disturbing aspects of the story for page 4, we'll start out with that:

Sometime around midnight, the girl was sleeping over at a friend's house in Springdale when Taylor and his 20-year-old cousin walked in, asking if anyone wanted to take a drive. The sixth-grader, who says she was bored and wanted to buy a soda, jumped into Taylor's beat-up red 1963 Chevrolet pickup truck.

Soon after, they picked up the 15-year-old boy and drove to a liquor store, where Taylor bought a pint of Old Grand-Dad whiskey, which he mixed for the girl in a cup of Coca-Cola, according to the boy, now a 48-year-old Army veteran. (Newsday is withholding the boy's name because he was charged in the case as a juvenile offender.)

Allegedly drove to weedy ravine

After a few hours at a local bowling alley, the foursome crammed into Taylor's truck and drove to a weedy ravine off a busy two-lane highway connecting the sister cities of Fayetteville and Springdale, according the sheriff's department account.

Taylor and the older man went off for a walk, leaving the 12-year-old and the teenager alone in the cab. In a statement to police, the 15-year-old said he removed his pants and admitted to having sex, revealing the encounter only after being pressed by investigators.

Moments later, he said he left and Taylor approached the truck, climbing on top of the girl. The girl let out a scream, according to the police report, and he claims to have seen Taylor hitching up his pants.

The victim, the boy reported, turned to both of them and yelled, "You all planned this, didn't you?"

At 4:50 a.m., the girl walked into a local emergency room, badly shaken. The doctor's report noted that she had injuries consistent with rape. Sgt. Dale Gibson, the department's lead investigator in the case, interviewed her as she huddled with her mother. She offered a chilling detail - a threat from Taylor and his friends. "If I did say anything about it, they would catch me out later," she told the investigator.

What did the then Hillary Rodham do to "fight for children" in this case?

n her 2003 autobiography "Living History," Clinton writes that she initially balked at the assignment, but eventually secured a lenient plea deal for Taylor after a New York-based forensics expert she hired "cast doubt on the evidentiary value of semen and blood samples collected by the sheriff's office."

However, that account leaves out a significant aspect of her defense strategy - attempting to impugn the credibility of the victim, according to a Newsday examination of court and investigative files and interviews with witnesses, law enforcement officials and the victim.

Rodham, records show, questioned the sixth grader's honesty and claimed she had made false accusations in the past. She implied that the girl often fantasized and sought out "older men" like Taylor, according to a July 1975 affidavit signed "Hillary D. Rodham" in compact cursive.

Echoing legal experts, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson says the senator would have been committing professional misconduct if she hadn't given Taylor the best defense possible.

however, later in the piece, we find out something that weakens this "I was only doing my job" excuse:

"She was just a real bulldog - a real bulldog," said former Washington County prosecutor Mahlon Gibson, her opponent in the case

...

During her first few months on the case, Rodham fired off no fewer than 19 subpoenas, affidavits and motions - almost as much paper as was typical for a capital murder case that year, according to case files on microfilm.

She successfully petitioned to obtain Taylor's underwear for independent testing after the state medical examiner found traces of semen and blood. She also secured Taylor's release on $5,000 bond after getting his boss at the factory to vouch for him.

But the record shows that Rodham was also intent on questioning the girl's credibility. That line of defense crystallized in a July 28, 1975, affidavit requesting the girl undergo a psychiatric examination at the university's clinic.

"I have been informed that the complainant is emotionally unstable with a tendency to seek out older men and to engage in fantasizing," wrote Rodham, without referring to the source of that allegation. "I have also been informed that she has in the past made false accusations about persons, claiming they had attacked her body."

Dale Gibson, the investigator, doesn't recall seeing evidence that the girl had fabricated previous attacks.

which paints the picture of an overzealous prosecutor -- of the victim.  While bringing in a forensics expert from New York at great taxpayer expense may have succeded in "casting doubt" on the physical evidence, the fact is, this evidence was so strong that they could not get it thrown out.

Furthermore, there is nothing to support Ms Rodham's Rovian "some people say" attack on this 12-year-old girl's credibility, and ample support for the victim's credibility in the corroborating sworn testimony of the juvenile co-conspirator, not to mention the medical evidence -- which included vaginal injury, and the semen of two different men mixed with her own blood accompanying the injuries.  

What was the victim's response to this affidavit?

The victim was visibly stunned when handed the affidavit by a reporter this fall. "It kind of shocks me - it's not true," she said. "I never said anybody attacked my body before, never in my life."...

..."It's not true, I never sought out older men - I was raped," the woman said in an interview in the fall. Newsday is withholding her name as the victim of a sex crime....

..."I remember a lot of bad things about what he did to me in that pickup of his," said the woman, who says she attempted suicide a year after the incident. "I've had a lot of counseling and saw a psychiatrist for five to ten years ... It really affected me mentally. I was always kind of scared to be alone with a guy afterwards."  

First, I do not believe that the profession of justice requires counsel to savage the victim like this, particularly in an affidavit which was withheld from the victim, who was never given a chance to respond in court.  

Second, it must be remembered that, in addition to representing the client, a lawyer is also an officer of the court, and must not knowingly present evidence which is known to be false.  This affidavit is ethically highly questionable, to say the least.  

Third, the "I was only doing my job" excuse just doesn't hold water -- Hillary Rodham could have argued more vigorously to be recused: expressing once, and not even directly to the judge, that she would "rather not" is not what I would call "fighting for children."  Hillary Rodham could have simply refused -- and suffered unfair censure on principle.  Activists (and even some lawyers) who really do fight are not afraid of censure or even incarceration to promote a just and urgent cause.  

Furthermore, even at this late date, I believe that her publishing and promoting the "I was only doing my job" excuse only digs her in deeper:  apparently, HRC's job is more important to her than the physical injury and psychological destruction of a 12-year-old girl -- whose PTSD is still painfully apparent 35 years later.  Heckuva job, Hillary.  

And, as I understand it, the 14th amendment applies to the entire country, even Arkansas: Hillary Rodham was not in involuntary servitude to perform this filthy, odious task -- and she certainly was not in involuntary servitude to pursue it with such palpable enthusiasm.  If she felt she could not fire this client, she could have said, "Mr. Taylor, the medical evidence and sworn testimony against you is so strong, I have no choice but to advise you to plead guilty."

That would have been both the professional and ethical thing to do.  

At least there is a more positive alternative to vote for in the Texas primary.

Hope in a hopeless world, and, hopefully, Change.

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by: wagwa @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 09:07:01 AM CST

Denton County (0.00 / 0)

I am extremely proud and excited about the Denton County numbers. It just proves that what everyone had said in the past were WRONG.

There ARE Democrats in Denton County. And our voices are being heard.

But the key to victory is continuing this trend into November. We can do it!

www.stonewalldemocratsofdentoncounty.org

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by: John McClelland @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 10:56:01 AM CST

Broke It (4.00 / 2)

Phillip,

Dallas County broke the '06 total vote yesterday, with over 57,000 early votes (not counting the mail ballots).  We've looked at about 55,000 of those, and as best we can tell, virtually half have no '02, '04 or '06 primary history.  Less than 3,000 have previous R primary history over the same period.

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by: Ken Molberg @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 11:33:58 AM CST

Sweet! (0.00 / 0)

I've heard a lot of Statistics, but this is the best one I have heard. It really puts the crossover argument to bed in a way; not being as large as some might assume.

I can't wait until I got home to Galveston County next week to vote and caucus (In Denton now)

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by: trowaman @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 11:39:30 AM CST

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Travis County Crossover... (0.00 / 0)

...is around 5% of the Dem primary being those with Republican history.

Of course, here, there really is nothing to vote in in the GOP primary, lol.  

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 13:17:05 PM CST

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Excellent (0.00 / 0)

Thanks Ken! I'm going to be doing these updates daily, once they are up officially on the SoS site. I'll be sure to include your comment in today's post.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin @ Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 11:39:43 AM CST

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If there were (0.00 / 0)

Republican crossovers to Obama, I'd expect them to be GenElect voters, not primary.  Hard to imagine double and triple R's voting for any Dem.

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 04:22:41 AM CST

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