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Hillary's Alamo? 63-63 Delegate Tie in Primary, 102-91 Obama Edge with Caucus


by: MattTX

Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 10:54 AM CST


(This is an amazing piece of analysis that is more than worthy of BOR's front page. Bumped again. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)

(cross posted at Election Inspection)

About a week ago, I projected that Hillary Clinton would beat Barack Obama statewide by about 5%. But because of Texas' Byzantine delegate selection rules, I projected that Obama would come out ahead in the pledged delegate race, 98-95.

But many new polls of Texas have come out in the last few days. I used these polls to improve and update my model and my projections. My new projections, by LoneStarProject (LSP) region:

Click below the fold for much, much more.

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Texas' March 4th Primary, now less than 2 weeks away, looms large. It is widely thought that Texas is make it or break it for Hillary Clinton - it has been called her Alamo. Hillary must stand, fight, and win Texas or basically be out of the race. Even though I am an Obama supporter, and the analogy of Hillary as blue blooded Texan defender of the Alamo I will indulge it. If Texas is Hillary's Alamo, then it is shaping up to be the battle of the titans. On the on hand we have:

Hillary Crockett

And on the other hand we have:

Santa Obama

Click here if you want to see the photoshops of "Hillary Crockett" and "Santa Obama." Some commenters at dailykos didn't like them, so I removed them to make viewing optional.

The reality, though, is that if Hillary Clinton fights to the last and loses, there will in all likelihood be no army left over to whoop and holler "Remember the Alamo!"

Texas Primary 101

Early voting has already started yesterday, and all across Texas, Democratic turnout is already soaring.

I, and many others, have blogged previously about how Texas assigns its 193 pledged delegates (on top of 35 superdelegates).

Briefly:

1) 126 delegates are assigned by 31 separate primary elections held in every State Senate District in Texas.
2) 67 delegates are assigned by caucuses which will take place in 3 successive stages:
a) Precinct Caucuses all across Texas. (March 4th, 7:15 PM - be there at least by 7:00)
b) County/State Senate District Conventions. (March 29th)
c) The State Democratic Convention. (June 6th-7th)

Projection Overview

I now project that Hillary Clinton will beat Barack Obama in the statewide vote (which determines no delegates) by about 3.5%, but that Obama will hold Hillary to a 63-63 draw among the 126 delegates determined by the State Senate District Primaries. My projection (really more of a wild guess) remains that Obama will win the caucuses by about 55%-45%, or 39 delegates to 28. In that scenario, Obama would win Texas by 102 delegates to 91 delegates. For my model, I am assuming that turnout will double to about 7% of all Texans, but given early voting trends, this may well be a conservative estimate of turnout.

What's more, when I ran a scenario through my model in which Hispanic turnout surges, Hillary Clinton gained precisely 0 delegates.

For my model, I assumed that Anglos would make up 52.6% of the Texas Democratic Primary electorate, that African Americans would be 19.5% of voters, and that Hispanics would make up a greater number of primary voters than in 2004, but that the increase would not be really massive, and would only go up to something like 25.3%. I tried to base these numbers off of the 2004 Texas Democratic Primary exit polls, and off of the polls that have some (different degrees of) crosstab data available, SUSA, ARG, TCUL, IVR,  Rasmussen, and ABC/WaPo.

As you can see in the crosstabs, SUSA, Rasmussen, and TCUL allpredict a large increase in Hispanic turnout over the 2004 Democratic primary, and all of those polling organizations have Hillary Clinton ahead, by varying margins. The one polling organization that has Hispanic turnout down or even is ARG, (one can't say which), and that is also the only polling organization that has Obama ahead. ARG is also the only organization that has Obama coming close to even among Hispanics, which brings us to the question of how Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are likely to fare among voters wedged into the racial categories of "White," "African American," "Hispanic," and "Other."

White voters

SUSA, TCUL, ARG, and Rasmussen all have Hillary ahead by roughly the same margin among white voters, which makes it a pretty easy call for me to assume roughly that same 12-14 point margin for Clinton. The only outlier is ABC/WaPo, which has Obama a bit closer among white voters. The striking results in states like Virginia and Wisconsin suggest that Obama might well close gap or even pull ahead among white voters, but if he is going to do that in Texas, the only poll it has shown up in so far is ABC/WaPo.

African American voters

With the one exception of IVR, the polls all generally agree that Clinton does not pass 20% among black voters, but SUSA and ABC/WaPo seemed to push African American leaners more than ARG or TCUL, and those leaners leant towards Obama. This is broadly consistent with Obama's performance among African American voters in other states, where he has often polled under 80%, but taken 80% or more on election day among black voters. Again, the results out of Wisconsin provide Obamafans with the hope that Obama might extend his dominance to 90%, as he did in Wisconsin, but I am not ready to project that Hillary Clinton will be crushed so massively among African American voters.

Hispanic voters

Among Hispanics, both SUSA and TCUL have Hillary up about 2 to 1 over Obama. ARG stands out, with Obama only behind 6% among Latinos. IVR is an outlier in the other direction - IVR has Hillary up among Hispanics by essentially the same margin that it has Obama up among African Americans. ABC/WaPo has Hillary up by a health margin (59%-36%), but one still less than 2 to 1. I would not be surprised if the results are ultimately pretty close to what the ABC/WaPo poll predicts, but as of now it is only one poll. While ARG has had a spotty record this election cycle, there are several reasons to suspect that it (and ABC/WaPo, to a lesser extent) might be on to something.

1) According to Gallup, Obama has pulled ahead nationally among Hispanic voters. Simply put, unless this is entirely attributable to polling error, it is difficult to imagine how Obama could be gaining nationally among Hispanics but not among Texas' large Hispanic population.
2) Hillary only ever really won 2-1 among Hispanics in a couple of states like California and Nevada. In states like Arizona and New Mexico, where more of the Hispanic population is not first (or even second) generation immigrants, Obama held Hillary's margins down. He also has done well in post Super Tuesday states among Hispanics, although because the Hispanic populations in those states has thus far been small, exit poll data is of only questionable validity.
3) Ron Kirk has shown that the idea that Texas Hispanics will not vote for an African American candidate, even against a Hispanic Democrat in a Democratic primary, is false.

Nevertheless, without more polling confirmation, I assumed in these projections that Hillary Clinton wins 2-1 among Hispanics. SUSA and TCUL speak louder than ARG.

Other voters

In Texas, although there are some native Americans and other mixed race persons, "other race" primarily means Asian American. Hillary Clinton won 3-1 among Asian Americans in California, which might lead Hillary supporters to hope that she can repeat that feat in Texas - and who knows, maybe she can. But there is no Asian vote, and there is also little polling data to indicate how either Asian or Other voters in Texas will vote. The only data is from SUSA, which actually has Obama ahead 56-40 among "Other" race voters. But "other race" makes up such a small percentage of the population that the margin of error must be through the roof, and SUSA's crosstabs don't really tell us much about non-white, non-hispanic, non-black voters in Texas.

Modeling Other Demographics

For my model, I assumed that African Americans, Hispanics, and Other race are monolithic blocs statewide, which is untrue but simplifies matters (you would understand if you saw my spreadsheet formulas). Additionally, much less data is available about how voting patterns among African Americans, Hispanics, and Other race voters voting patterns vary by demographic categories like income than for white voters, and less data is available about the distribution of those demographic categories by State Senate District. For example, I assumed that Hispanic voters in McAllen are just as likely to turn out, and just as likely to vote for Hillary Clinton (or Barack Obama), as Hispanic voters in Dallas, or as Hispanic voters in the rural Texas panhandle.

But for white voters, I adjusted the voter totals based on the difference between the State Senate Districts percentage of voters who are over 65, live in an urban area, make greater than $50,000, have a bachelors degree or higher, and who are college students. My model adjusts the totals based on the percentage of the State Senate District compared to the Texas State average for all of these demographic categories. My model adjusts the totals among white voters in Obama's favor when there fewer voters over the age of 65, when there were more urban voters, when there were more voters who have household incomes in excess of $50,000, when more voters hold bachelors degrees or higher, and when more voters are college students. It adjusts the vote totals in favor of Hillary Clinton when the opposite holds. Even though Obama cut into (and in some cases won) those subsets of white voters in recent States like Wisconsin and Virginia, Obama still did better among college graduates than non-college graduates, etc.

For every voter that is part of the % difference from the State average for the demographic categories of over 65, > 50K, bachelors degree or higher, and college student, I gave a 30% chance that their vote would shift from one candidate to the other, explained by that demographic category. For the rural/urban category, I did the same thing, but only shifted the vote by 10%.

Regional Projections

My regional projections are determined by the sums of the vote and delegate totals in the State Senate Districts that make up thatLSP region:

.

My model comes quite close to the limited (and high margin of error) regional crosstab data we have available to us, simply by treating Hispanics, African Americans, and Other race as monolithic blocs and by adjusting white voters based upon the relative commonality of a few demographic categories in their State Senate District.

South Texas

My model agrees pretty well with both SUSA and TCUL on South Texas, but may be a bit more favorable to Hillary than either. A much larger percentage of TCUL's sample (32%) than SUSA's (13%) comes from its "South Texas" region, suggesting that TCUL classifies a larger area, including San Antonio, as part of "South Texas."

West Texas

My model is a bit more favorable to Obama in West Texas than either poll, but this is probably because my data uses a loose definition of the term "urban," which seems to include small West Texas towns. In any case, the difference is not going to shift delegates. District 31, for example, is not really 81.5% Urban, which my data says it is. If you shift the Urban demographic number down to a more realistic level, Hillary gains a few percent.

Houston & East Texas

My model has Hillary ahead in East Texas, as does TCUL. SUSA probably has Obama ahead because it has a broader definition of "East Texas," which seems to include Houston. TCUL has Obama ahead by a fairly similar margin in Houston.

Central Texas

TCUL has Obama up big in its "Central Texas" region, which must include Austin. SUSA has a slightly larger "Central Texas" region, which it has going narrowly for Clinton. My model has Obama up by a bit in Austin, and generally down a bit in the rest of the State Senate Districts that might be considered part of Central Texas. My model may well be underestimating Obama's support in Austin, and I suspect it probably is. A full year ago, an Obama rally in Austin drew 20,000 people, whereas in State Senate District 14, which includes most of Austin, my model has Obama receiving 27452. Austin has a liberal culture unique to Texas which may not be fully explainable by differences in Rural/Urban, income, age, and educational demographics.

Dallas/Fort Worth & North Texas

Both TCUL and SUSA have Clinton up by 1 or 2 points in DFW/North Texas. SUSA seems to have a broader definition of North Texas, which probably includes places outside the DFW metroplex like Wichita Falls. My model has Obama up in the North Texas region. My model may be wrong. Or the polls, which have high margins of error for regional crosstabs, may be wrong. It is hard to say.

The John Edwards Factor

John Edwards is still on the ballot. Edwards received up to 15% of the vote in some Louisiana counties on Feb. 9th, even after dropping out, and also did very well in rural Oklahoma. He will surely get some votes, and likely will do relatively well in rural parts of East and North Texas near the Louisiana and Oklahoma borders, as well as in rural parts of Central Texas. Who knows, maybe the areas of Texas near to the New Mexico border, where Bill Richards did very well fundraising, will give him some love as well. The numbers in my model do not take this into account, and give all votes either to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Edwards' votes, at least in rural areas, are probably more likely to come from Hillary Clinton's total.

State Senate District Projections

District 1

This East Texas GOP district includes the cities of Texarkana, Longview, Part of Tyler, and surrounding rural areas.  All the demographics are unfavorable here to Obama, with the one exception of the African American percentage. The rural, white, over 65, non-college educated demographics all point my model towards showing Hillary winning the popular vote, but the 4 delegates here should split 50/50. It's worth noting here that the data on urban/rural population seems to generously define "urban" to include suburban areas and smaller towns.

District 2


This GOP district includes the Dallas suburb of Rockwall, some East Dallas exurbs, and rural areas.  The above average AA population, the above average > 50K vote (concentrated in the DFW suburbs), and the urban vote should keep Obama close enough to split the delegates evenly. Hillary should carry the popular vote in the rural areas, but have more trouble in the Dallas suburbs.

District 3

This is yet another East Texas GOP district with 4 delegates. It is composed of towns like Nacodoches and Lufkin, along with more than its fair share of rural counties. This is the toughest of the East Texas districts for Obama. It is (often by a wide margin) whiter, older, more rural, poorer, and less well educated than Texas as a whole. The only saving grace for Obama is that the AA population is very slightly higher than the Hispanic population. My model shows Obama holding the delegates even, but Hillary is not all that far away from the 62.5% she would need to split the delegates 3-1. For those who are still wondering why Bill Clinton barnstormed East Texas, that is why - to try and get 3-1 delegate splits.

District 4

The final East Texas GOP district, District 4 includes Beaumont, some Houston exurbs, and rural areas.  This is district is a bit more urban and has more > 50K voters, and somewhat resembles District 2. My model has the popular vote dead even, and we should be surprised if the 4 delegates do not split evenly here.

District 5

District 5 is a GOP district that includes Bryan/College Station (Texas A&M University), North-Austin suburbs around Round Rock, Huntsville, and some parts of rural Central Texas. Although Texas A&M is conservative for a University, it is still a University, and that favors Obama. There are slightly more > 50K voters and slightly more AA voters than the state average. Again, my model basically has this district pegged 50-50, and it is quite unlikely that the delegates here split anything but 2-2, and this district should be competitive in the popular vote, perhaps with a slight Obama edge.

District 6

District 6 is a Democratic, Hispanic majority district in Houston. The fact that 72% of the district is Hispanic simply overwhelms all other demographic factors, and makes it very likely that Hillary wins 2 delegates and Obama wins 1 delegate. All she has to do is win more votes than Obama. The fact that this district has only 3 delegates, while other districts with a greater number of African Americans have more delegates, begins to show us how the delegate system in Texas is working against Hillary.

District 7

District 7 is a GOP district located in the suburbs and exurbs to the north-west of Houston. With the exception of the fact that African American voters are about 4% below the average for TX, the demographics are favorable to Obama. Hillary could potentially make it competitive, but the 60% > 50k and the 41.6% with at least a bachelors tip the scales to Obama. Because there are only 3 delegates, whoever gets the most votes wins 2 of them. That should be Obama.

District 8

District 8 is a GOP district in the northern area of Dallas, centered on Plano. There are plenty of "wine track" voters in Collin County (23rd wealthiest county in the US) who are educated and have a household income of more than 50K, a key part of Obama's base. My model has Obama close enough to the 62.5% threshold that it is possible that he takes District 8 3-1, but probably splits it 2-2.

District 9

District 9 is another suburban GOP district, somewhat similar to district 8, which covers the area between Dallas and Forth Worth, including Grand Prairie and parts of Arlington and Irving. Obama benefits demographically from relatively young, educated, upper middle class voters and an above average percentage of African American voters. Hillary could potentially keep it close with the help of Hispanic voters, but my model has Obama splitting the white vote here, which is all he needs to beat Hillary in the District 9 and take that extra delegate. Should be 2-1 Obama.

District 10

District 10 consists of Fort Worth and much of its southern suburbs. It is slightly more Democratic than Texas as a whole, but nonetheless leans GOP. African American voters will help Obama and Hispanics will help Hillary, but the AA vote can be expected to more than counterbalance the Hispanic vote. Obama should also do well among white voters here, since they skew towards being > 50K and college graduate voters. All of that adds up in my model to Obama most likely receiving 3 delegates and Clinton most likely receiving 2 delegates.

District 11

District 11 sits on the southern suburbs of Houston, and reaches down to Galveston via the Johnson Space Center. That's right, this is one of the only areas of the country where candidates' Space Plans will be a top consideration for a significant number of voters. :) I have no idea whose space plan will be more popular, but Obama generally does well among highly educated voters. The popular vote in District 11 could tilt slightly to Hillary or slightly to Obama, but it doesn't matter which way it tilts. Both candidates will walk away with 2 delegates.

District 12

District 12 is yet another GOP district (we have already went through way too many of those) includes northern Tarrant County (Fort Worth) and the southern part of Denton County. District 12 is heavily white, and more than 50% of households have a > 50K income. The AA vote for Obama and the Hispanic vote for Clinton should roughly cancel out. My model has it razor close, with Obama barely winning in my main projection, and Hillary barely winning in my Hispanic turnout surge scenario. This district could vote either way, but again, it does not matter. Both Hillary and Obama get 2 delegates.

District 13

District 13 is a Democratic district which is half African American. However, African Americans should be overrepresented among Democratic primary voters, and will probably make up about 80% of those who vote in District 13. Combine that with a slightly greater than average percentage of college students and voters with at least a bachelors degree, and you have a recipe for an Obama goldmine. Clinton must rely on Hispanic support, some white voters, her ~15-20% of the AA vote, and a handful of votes from Asian Americans to secure more than a single delegate. My model has Obama taking District 13 5 delegates to 2, but the cutoffs for 6 or 7 Obama delegates, respectively, are 78.58% and 85.01%. Neither is out of reach with exceptional African American turnout and exceptional Obama support among African Americans. On the other hand, my model has Obama perilously close to the 64.30% cutoff that would turn this district 4-3 for Obama, particularly under the increased Hispanic turnout scenario. Hillary might also hope that the fairly substantial "Other race" vote leans her way and helps limit the damage.

District 14

District 14 consists of most of Travis County (Austin), and includes the University of Texas. There is a heavy "creative class" contingent to be found, with tech jobs, > 50K voters, college educated voters, etc. But it also has a substantial Hispanic population, which - if it both turns out and breaks strongly for Hillary, could potentially save her in District 14. Obama drew a crowd of 20,000 people one year ago in Austin, yet my model has him splitting the delegates. I would guess that my model is wrong here, and that Austin's unique liberal culture in the heart of Red Texas cannot be fully explained simply by demographic categories like college degrees and household incomes in excess of $50,000. Still, Obama is close under my model to the 56.26% he would need for a 5-3 split. 68.76% and a 6-2 split seems like a reach, unless I am right to suspect that my model could be particularly off here.

District 15

District 15 is a Democratic leaning swing district centered on the North Houston suburbs. African Americans should make up a bit under half of Democratic primary voters, but even so, Obama and Hillary will probably split the delegates 2-2. If Obama does very well he could conceivably take 3 delegates, but to do this he would have to substantially improve his margins among Hispanic voters and achieve high black turnout.

District 16

District 16 is a GOP district located in North Dallas, which includes the affluent Highland Park area. The African American vote should marginally outweigh the Hispanic vote, while voters will be favorable towards Obama in the > 50k and college graduate demographics. The only question is whether Obama takes 3 delegates or whether the candidates split them 2-2.  My model predicts a 2-2 split, whether or not there is a large increase in Hispanic turnout.

District 17

District 17 is a meandering GOP district that stretches all the way from West Houston and Sugarland down to Galveston, and then over to Port Arthur. Favorable numbers of African American voters, > 50K voters, and College educated voters give Obama the edge and 3 of District 17's 5 delegates. There are not enough Hispanic voters to counter the African American vote, but there are enough to prevent Obama from crossing the 70.01% threshold for 4 delegates.

District 18

District 18 is a large, mostly rural GOP district including Victoria and most of the area between Houston, Austin, and Corpus Christi. All the demographics are favorable to Hillary. Simply put, most every Democrat here that is not an African American is part of Hillary's base. But my model predicts that is enough to stop a 3-1 split, even with minimal support for Obama among whites and Hispanics. Hillary needs to either cut Obama's margins among African Americans or she needs to hope for limited African American turnout here if she wants 3 delegates.

District 19

District 19 covers much the same territory as Ciro Rodriguez's US Congressional District 23. It stretches all the way from San Antonio to the edge of El Paso along the Rio Grande. About half the population of the district lives in San Antonio, and 2/3 are Hispanic. Hillary is very close to taking 3 of 4 delegates under my projected scenario, and even closer in my Hispanic surge scenario. Although my model predicts delegates ultimately split 2-2, she could take 3 delegates.

District 20

District 20 is another heavily Hispanic district, which includes parts of Corpus Christi and McAllen, and a sliver of land connecting the two. It is not so much a question of whether Obama loses in a landslide, but of how big the landslide is. Early voting has been high in both McAllen and Corpus Christi, and that is quite normal in Rio Grande Valley machine politics. The real question is whether Hillary really does take the actual (as opposed to the polled) Hispanic vote by about 2-1. If she does, she probably gets 3 delegates. If not, she gets 2.

District 21

District 21 includes Laredo, a small part of suburban/exurban San Antonio, and a vast rural area in between. Perhaps it is beginning to sound like a broken record, but like 19 and 20, 21 is 2/3 Hispanic and Hillary will blow Obama away, at least in the popular vote. The problem with taking a majority demographic (Hispanic voters) 2 to one is that when there is a 62.5% threshold, it is tough to reach that threshold if one does not do almost as well among the smaller demographics. If I were running the Obama campaign in this district, not only would I reach out to Hispanics, but I would make sure that every registered African American voter got voter contact out the wazoo, just to try and stop Hillary from crossing the magic threshold.

District 22

District 22 is a GOP district that stretches from the DFW suburb cities of Burleson and Waxahachie down Interstate 35 to Waco. With the exception of the average sized African American population, the demographics are simply unfavorable for Obama, and Hillary should have no difficulty beating him and winning 2 of the 3 delegates at stake. Obama's only chance is if his field campaign can reproduce Wisconsin-like numbers by reaching into Hillary's base.

District 23

District 23 is a heavily Democratic district that includes much of urban Dallas. It is about 40% African American and about 40% Hispanic, but African Americans should not only make up a larger percentage of the Democratic primary electorate, but vote more strongly for Obama than Hispanics vote for Clinton. The most likely outcome is 4 delegates for Obama and 2 for Clinton. 3-3 is possible conceivable, but Hillary needs (at least) the Hispanic surge scenario for that to happen.

District 24

District 24 is a strongly GOP district which includes Abilene and Temple/Killeen, as well as much of the rural areas in between. The Demographics here are quite favorable to Clinton. While Obama may do fine in the Abilene and the Killeen area, next to Fort Hood where the Iraq War will be a large issue, Hillary should do very quite well in the rural and small town areas. On the other hand, there are fewer Democrats in those areas. It is possible that my demographic model is wrong due to the existence of Fort Hood, and that military voters in the Killeen area (most people in Killeen are strongly influenced by military & veterans issues) voting on Iraq tip things to Obama. Still, if Hillary can't win 2 of the 3 delegates here, she is in serious trouble.

District 25

The best thing about District 25 is that it is home to the world famous Schlitterbahn water park in New Braunfels. But it also includes San Marcos (home to Texas State University), northern San Antonio, and parts of southern Austin. Obama's biggest problem here is the near total absence of African American voters. On the other hand, he could form a coalition of Texas State University voters, > 50k household income voters, and college educated voters. My model predicts a nearly perfectly even 3-3 split.

District 26

District 26 is an urban, Democratic, Hispanic majority district located in San Antonio. With a 2/3 Hispanic population, this district is all about the Hispanic vote. Hillary needs it to come in even bigger for her than it does under my Hispanic surge scenario for her to take 3 delegates.

District 27

District 27 is a Democratic district in the Rio Grande Valley that includes Brownsville. It has an extraordinarily large Hispanic population, and the Hispanic vote is virtually synonymous with THE vote in this district. This would be perfect for Hillary, but it only has 3 delegates. Unless Hillary suddenly plummets among Hispanics, there is no question that she will get 2 delegates. Unfortunately for her, Obama only has to get 16.68% to get his 1 delegate.

District 28

District 28 is a massive West Texas GOP district. It includes Lubbock, San Angelo, and utterly vast tracts of very sparsely populated West Texas space. With the exception of college students (because of Texas Tech in Lubbock), all the demographic categories are more favorable to Hillary than the State average. West Texas, however, is very different from East Texas, and the further west one moves, the more the voting patterns should start to resemble those seen in New Mexico. Hillary will easily win the delegates 2-1. In fact, my model may well underestimate her support, because it is more than a little bit of a stretch to call small West Texas towns "urban." Unfortunately for Hillary, it doesn't matter that she will win big, as opposed to simply winning. Obama just needs 16.68% for his 1 delegate.

District 29

District 29 is essentially the city of El Paso in the far west corner of Texas, just south of the New Mexico border and a short drive from Las Cruces, New Mexico. Hispanics make up 78% of the population, Hispanics will vote for Hillary, and the delegates should split 2-1 for Hillary. How much she wins by is an intellectual question with no practical consequence. She will get no extra delegates by blowing Obama out.

District 30

District 30 is a North Texas GOP district which includes Wichita falls, some DFW suburbs and exurbs, and surrounding rural areas. It is one of the most heavily white districts in Texas, and it should vote for Hillary by a substantial margin. Edwards may take a fair share of the vote as well just like he did in neighboring Oklahoma, but will take votes from Hillary rather than Obama. Unless Obama really cuts into Hillary's base of working class white voters, to at least the extent seen in Wisconsin, Hillary should easily take 2 delegates, while Obama goes home with 1.

District 31

District 31 is our last district, and also the one with the fewest delegates - 2. It is a GOP district that reaches up from Midland/Odessa in the south all the way along the New Mexico border to Amarillo and the Oklahoma panhandle. Hillary should win the popular vote easily, but Obama only needs a little bit more than 25% to split the delegates. This actually could be a problem for him. But 25% is a very low hurdle, and given that Obama passed that hurdle even in Hillary's best state (Arkansas), one would imagine that he would be able to pass that hurdle in District 31 on the strength of professionals in Midland/Odessa and Amarillo. As with the other West Texas district, my model may underestimate Hillary's support because the district is more rural than its official statistics let on. But that does not matter in terms of delegates at all.

The Texas Caucuses

As mentioned previously, 67 of Texas' delegates will be determined by caucuses. Senator Obama has been doing very well in caucuses with the exception of the Nevada caucus,, in which he won the State delegates but lost the precinct delegates. Nevada has at least two relevant similarities to Texas - it has a high Hispanic population, and both campaigns will have a major presence, have a decent amount of time to set up their organizations, and will be strongly competing. In a great blunder, Hillary basically ignored most of the caucuses that Obama did very well in, which the exception of Maine. But she is not doing that in Texas. She has more than 4000 precinct captains signed up, and while Obama has in excess of 8000 precinct captains who can make calls, print up flyers, and print up canvassing walklists from Texasprecinctcaptains.com,  but 4000 is nothing to sneeze at either, and it really depends on whose precinct captains actually do the work and turn out their voters. So while I would still favor Obama to win the Texas caucuses, don't believe the hype that Hillary has no chance at winning the caucuses. It is possible that she will do so.

So my projection (really more of a wild guess), is still that Obama will win the Texas caucuses 55%-45% The delegate breakdown for that is:

Obama: 55% - 25 At Large delegates - 14 PLEO delegates

Clinton: 45% - 17 At Large delegates - 11 PLEO delegates

In sum, my combined updated 31 State Senate District and Texas Caucuses projection (includes all of Texas' pledged delegates) is as follows:

Total Projected Delegates

Obama: - 102 Delegates

Clinton: - 91 Delegates

Highly Unlikely Best Case Scenario (for Obama)

Finally, as a treat for my fellow Obama supporters, I ran through a best case scenario for Obama. What would happen, according to my model, if Obama took 91% of the African American vote, as he did in Wisconsin? What would happen if he took 50% of the Hispanic vote, as Gallup reports that he is now doing nationally? What would happen if he won among white voters 54-45, as he did in Wisconsin? What would happen if he won other race voters 56-40, as he does in SUSA's sample? What would happen if he repeated his very best caucus performances, and won 3-1?

This is of course all highly unlikely cherry picking of the most favorable possible results for Obama among a wide variety of demographics. Nevertheless, under that scenario, Obama would of course win in a landslide.

130 to 63.

A Texas-sized rout if I have ever seen one.

Do you like that, Obamafans?

What?

If you liked imagining that, try doing something to turn it into reality.

Hope is not being passive, having your head in the clouds, and just waiting for things to happen to you.

So if you enjoyed this post and are an Obama supporter (or even if you are not! :D ), please consider sending Obama a donation to help Turn Texas Bluebama! If you live in Texas, become a Texas precinct captain for Obama. If you don't live in Texas, you can help by phonebankin



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Good job (0.00 / 0)
And matches all of the models I have run, from the very first one I ran several days ago.

Actually, so many models come out close to a 63-63 primary delegate tie, it's kind of weird.


tremendous work! (0.00 / 0)
although I've always that the alamo was a bad metaphor for people to use instead of the more traditional "firewall".  Don't they realize everyone in the alamo was slaughtered?

San Jacinto would have been better (0.00 / 0)
But hey, I only studied Texas History.  

[ Parent ]
KUDOS on all your hard work ... I added a couple of "kickers" (0.00 / 0)
into my model and ended up with a 68 (Obama) to 56 (Clinton). The "weighted" kickers were things like going lighter than usual on Obama draw (SD-29) in the El Paso area if Reyes and Shapleigh's work match their Hillary endorsements; OTOH, I did the opposite for SD-5 and SD-22 where Chet Edwards endorsed Obama in his 17th Cong. District putting action heft behind his words - the same for Cong. Doggett's District. And, then, for added irony - let alone poetic justice - I think that SD-14 will become a blowout favoring Obama behind Kirk Watson's enthusiasm (and Tweety's deserved chagrin for his classless "gotcha" politics). Let's Hook 'Em for Obama. Period.

*drool* (0.00 / 0)
This stuff is gold.

While Senate district 30 is mostly rural, it does include the city of Denton which is kinda hippy-ish and includes 2 large liberal colleges. I don't see district 30 breaking by the projected model because of that.

I also don't see Austin being split evenly. The demographics there screams Obama (liberal white collar educated youth).

We'll see though in a week and a half.


light years ahead of the "media" (0.00 / 0)
"Well, Wolf, we've got a lot of numbers coming in and -- wait, we have a projection to make... CNN projects we just got our ass handed to us by some unknown, unpaid kid in Texas who's probably three years out of college."

Thanks (5.00 / 1)
One correction though, Wolf.

"some unknown, unpaid kid in Texas who's probably three years out of college."

More like .5 years out of college.


[ Parent ]
The real surge in EV, the ABC/WaPost poll, SDs14,25 (5.00 / 1)
Is this a thesis or what? Amazing effort. Thanks. Just a few points to consider.

1. EV totals this week suggest the real surge in EV turnout is urban and suburban more than Hispanic South Texas. Certainly, Hispanic turnout is up, almost double 2004 in Hidalgo and triple in El Paso. But in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant and Travis and their suburban neighbor counties, new voters are swelling EV turnout to as high as 8 to 9 times the 2004 rate. The point here is that the larger turnout surge may be African American, young  and suburban, and that likely awards more popular votes and delegates to Obama.

2. Another way to look at the "white vote" numbers in the ABC/WaPost poll is not that it's an "outlier," but that it's the most recent poll and reflects a trend.

3. No way the eight delegates split in SD14. It's at least 5-3 Obama, and if the 6-2 threshold were just a couple of points lower, that would be in play. This is overwhelmingly Obama country, and SD25 (with the highest D turnout pcts. in South Austin) will be the same, making a 4-2 split likely. Look at Austin this way: Over 36 hours around a debate at UT, Obama rubbed the Horns for luck, sang at the Music Hall, and filled up Congress Ave. on a Friday night, while HRC dissed the popular SD14 Senator on national TV.

With that in mind, what was once considered impossible - a popular vote Obama victory in Texas - looks more possible these days. And some pros are whispering the unthinkable: that Texas could look like Wisconsin by March 4. I think it's way too early to make those kind of assumptions either way, but by this time next week, we'll have a good enough feel for who's been voting early to have a better informed turnout model.


Be careful with the early vote numbers (0.00 / 0)
If I remember right, the early vote totals in El Paso and Hidalgo were already very high in 2004, so doubling there may be as important as multipling by 8 in counties that had hardly any early turnout in 2004.

The big question for delegates is whether Clinton can hit 62.5% in her strongest districts, which mostly have 4 delegates. My guess is that she won't, but right now it's pretty darn close.  


[ Parent ]
dont forget hispanics are all over texas (0.00 / 0)
more in DFW than the valley, more in harris county than probably the valley and west texas combined.

so let's not jump ahead with hidalgo and bexar EV rates as proxies for hillary vote. 1000% in harris just might include some hillary supporters.

Act like an underdog until at least 7:15pm march 4, Obama supporters!

-my comments at BOR are mine, and do not represent anything official from LFT.


Early Democratic voting in my rural Central Texas county (0.00 / 0)
has already surpassed the 2006 totals -- in fact, more early votes were cast in the first two days of early voting last week than in the entire 2006 early voting period! About a hundred Gillespie and Kerr County supporters attended an Obama meet-up last Wednesday evening in Fredericksburg. Four Clinton supporters showed up, and a few Republican trolls.

Gillespie is a 75%+ Republican County. Many Democrats (approximately 200)voted in the 2006 Republican primary, because there were no local contested Democratic races and there was a very hotly contested State House 73 race between Carter Casteel and Nathan Macias. Casteel won Gillespie by 57 votes, and I doubt whether many, if any, of the Democratic crossovers cast their ballots for Macias! (Doug Miller, watch out!)

It is hard to factor such variables into polling numbers and projections. The Gillespie County Democratic chair thinks we will have record turnout in this year's primary election. I tend to agree. I have colleagues who normally vote Republican saying they are going to vote in the Democratic primary - for Obama - in spite of a hotly contested Republican primary battle for the Tax Assessor-Collector's office.

I believe we will see Democratic inroads in heavily Republican rural areas. Personally, I do not feel that Senator Clinton will achieve the 65-67% caucus win she needs to gain the extra delegates in many largely rural Senate districts.

I am so glad the Texas primary actually matters this election.


District 22 (0.00 / 0)
You have Dist 22 (Waco area to southern Fort Worth Suburbs) going heavily to Clinton.  Personally I don't see it.  The Obama folks are way out ahead of Clinton here in Waco.  And they are getting a whole bunch of Baylor kids on board.  

Other than the black areas of Waco, this is a heavily Republican district and the feeling I have is that the Hillary Hatred has been going on so long here and is so deep-seated that  lot of it has unfortunately rubbed off on Democrats as well.  


[ Parent ]
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