Travis County Democratic Turnout Analysis (After 2 Days)

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 03:18 AM CST

I will have far more analysis tomorrow looking at the statewide picture but it is 3 AM and this is the best I can do right now.   

Votes cast COUNTYWIDE first 2 days in Democratic primary.

2004: 2,380
2006: 969
2008: 12,872

That's a 440% increase over the 2004 primary. 

Votes cast at UT CAMPUS site first 2 days in Democratic primary.

2004: 261 (11.0% of county)
2006: 66   (6.8% of county)
2008: 1,475  (11.5% of county) 

• The UT CAMPUS is the highest voting location in Travis County so far casting 30% more votes than the next highest early vote location (although plenty of students vote at other EV locations).
  
• Both the UT CAMPUS and COUNTYWIDE vote on the *first day* of EV alone cast more votes than each cast for the *entire* early vote period for the 2006 DEM primary.
  
• The UT CAMPUS has matched in *two days* the entire EV vast on campus in the 2004 DEM primary
• If the vote Thursday matches past patterns, COUNTYWIDE we may cast as many vote in *three days* as the entire EV cast in the 2004 DEM primary.
  
• My projection based upon the past two days of voting compared to the 2004 EV curve of votes cast each day in the 2004 DEM primary estimates that ~97,000 votes could be cast early in Travis County.