Obama Leads Texas in ARG Poll

Now that's what I call team effort (0.00 / 0)

22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

That is troubling to me.  Hopefully it is just the raw emotion of a lengthy primary and everyone will come together on the back end to vote straight ticket.

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by: colin @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 13:06:44 PM CST

Probably mostly independents (0.00 / 0)

Considering the amount of independents that might have been polled (and how many might actually vote overall), I'm not too worried about this.

I know people who would vote for Obama in the general but not Clinton (based on a blatant hate of Clinton) and people who would vote for Clinton in the general but not Obama (mainly due to the experience issue).

It's normal, I think.

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams

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by: Michael Hurta @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 13:21:58 PM CST

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Speaking of independents (0.00 / 0)

Obama picked up an important endorsement from an Independent - Austin Mayor Will Wynn.

Post from Greg Hauenstein's Blog:
Austin Mayor Will Wynn Endorses Barack Obama

Wynn cited Obama's commitment to uniting Americans behind an energy policy that protects our environment and ensures our long-term national security.

"For too long, we've allowed old divisions to hold us back," Wynn said. "Recently I've had conversations about energy policy with presidential candidates from both parties, and I believe Senator Obama is the only person who can move us forward on this critical issue".

"Barack Obama gets it. He offers a commitment to confront our energy challenges in ways that will unite our country, help our economy flourish and protect our planet and national security for the next generation and beyond."

Wynn has chaired the Energy Committee of the U.S. Conference of Mayors since 2004, and was instrumental in passing energy-efficiency grant legislation as part of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. If fully appropriated, Austin would gain more than $20 million to help fund local efficiency efforts.

Obamanos Austin!

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by: sonia @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 13:32:07 PM CST

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Hillary 2008 (0.00 / 0)

 Suspicious that the Austin mayor endorsed Obama. Yes, because Obama is for the oil company's that are ripping off Americans. That's why Obama voted for Dick Cheney's energy bill. People complain then they vote for the person that voted for the oil company's!

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by: Mestsal @ Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 03:56:01 AM CST

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true (0.00 / 0)

The other factor that I was forgetting is the repub voters that vote in Dem primaries.

The fact remains that in the overwhelming majority of East Texas, South Texas and the RGV, if you want to have some kind of say in your local officials...you better vote in the Dem primary.

Of course, we all know that these folks switch their votes in November and support repubs...particularly at the top of the ticket.

So, when you consider that info, the 20% stuff actually isn't that bad. You talked me off the ledge.

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by: colin @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 13:36:23 PM CST

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Obama the Anti-American (0.00 / 0)

    I'm one of those voters that will absolutely not vote for Obama. So far i have 10,000 democratic voters and counting to vote for Mccain in the general if Obama is the nominee.
   Illegal-aliens should not be given drivers license and be rewarded by the Anti-American. First generation Americans and illegals are the one voting for the actor.
   Why should i vote for someone that voted for the Dick Cheney energy bill that resulted in historic profits for exxon.
   On his stump aired on CNN he said, "Americans are tired of paying higher fuel cost to heat their homes, higher grocery prices, and higher Co-payments. It's fault were paying higher prices because he gave in to the energy lobbiest.
  Finally his wife Michelle has never been proud of her country till now. Well, I always loved my country even if we were the poorest country in the world and these are the people to speak for the American people if ,God forbid, Obama would get the nominee. All his speeches are much ado about nothing!

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by: Mestsal @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 20:17:38 PM CST

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You always have to remember... (0.00 / 0)

That a good 20% of Democratic Primary voters (pulling samples from past Democratic primary voters), are folks who are voting for county commissioners, clerks, and judges.   They always vote a straight Republican ticket in the fall.

The question begged is "Does a General Election Republican who votes in a primary for local folks, vote against the woman or the Black guy.

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by: Glen Maxey @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 15:10:53 PM CST

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Data disambiguation (0.00 / 0)

That Latino number is totally misleading.

Since Latinos tend to be lower income, and lower income tends to be associated with Clinton support, the fact that it's so near equal means that, all else held equal, being Latino makes you MORE likely to support Obama, not less likely.

DailyKos has a good (although far from complete) analysis of this sort of thing here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

Looking at data like ARG reports it is pretty useless, actually, unless they give us coefficients for regressions.  

Politics is not the art of the possible, but of making things possible.

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by: david.broockman @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 13:16:14 PM CST

in reach (0.00 / 0)

I really think that the main thing we learn from this poll is that Obama is definitely in reach of winning Texas with the popular vote.

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams

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by: Michael Hurta @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 13:19:37 PM CST

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Hispanics and polling (0.00 / 0)

From my experience in South Texas and the RGV, Hispanic support is typically difficult to pin down very closely.

As a general rule in Texas, Hispanics are far more likely to co-habitate multiple generations (read: parents, kids, and grandparents/grandkids) in the same address.

Statistically speaking, working Hispanics in Texas are far more likely to be "off the grid" than their white counterparts.  This is due to multiple factors including moving around a lot, the broadening use of cell phones as primary and sole telephone, and the continuing practice of migratory farming (following the growing season to different parts of the country) as a means of employment.

I happen to think that the presence of President Clinton in South Texas will be electrifying and really blow Sen. Clinton's numbers way up.

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by: colin @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 13:26:28 PM CST

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Corpus Christi, Texas (0.00 / 0)

  Not all Hispanics and Hispanics tend to be well informed through their Children and Yes, South-Texas is going to blow Obama away.
 The rally in Robstown for Hillary was huge with white and Hispanic voters. I was there and saw it with my own eyes. we were running every direction just to see my champion!

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by: Mestsal @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 20:23:59 PM CST

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ARG is horrendous. (3.00 / 2)

I am fully, 100% behind Obama.

I have been donating, phonebanking, passing out stickers and yardsigns and I'm signed up as a precinct captain.

But this poll is bad news to me.

First of all: ARG is almost as bad as Zogby.

Second: Clinton is obviously ahead (Rasmussen is no SUSA, but they're a lot better than ARG) and I don't want the steam that this poll suggests to get us Obama supporters overconfident--that would be disastrous.

Obama is down, probably not by 15 or 20.

But we should act like he is and work even harder.

ARG sucks. Don't trust 'em.

-Colin K

"There's nothing new except for the history that you don't know."
-HST

Justice Addict

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by: Colin Kalmbacher @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 13:48:04 PM CST

Yeah (0.00 / 0)

With the release of all these polls today, I think it's clear that Clinton is probably up about 7-9 points in Texas right now as 3 of the 5 polls concur on that point.  

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 15:13:48 PM CST

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Gerrymandering here may benefit Obama (3.00 / 1)

I noticed a piece posted on The Huffington Post that suggests gerrymandering in Texas may play in Obama's favor.  I find this so delightfully ironic where Tom Delay and the other Texas GOP are concerned.  I am sure they must all be popping valium one after another at the very thought of what their 1992 scheme has possibly engendered.

Sweet dreams boys.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

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by: Libby Shaw @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 14:54:39 PM CST

Oh that would be so funny (3.00 / 1)

Tom DeLay and Karl Rove helped us take back the White House in Texas.

Great!

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by: sonia @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 15:36:43 PM CST

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I know! (0.00 / 0)

I can't stop laughing at the very thought.  Sweet justice is a long time in coming for these boys.  

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by: Libby Shaw @ Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 16:22:38 PM CST

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Re: THIS POLL- STILL LOTS OF WORK TO DO... (0.00 / 0)

I'm not back in TX for another week or more, but thought this photo would make a great poster for his TX campaign, with this slogan from a bumper sticker there:

"I wasn't born in Texas, but I got here as fast as I could"

Here's the photo--

http://img.photobucket.com/alb...

I thought someone out there might want to make this into a poster ASAP.

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by: booradley @ Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 09:14:47 AM CST

IGNORE MY POST ABOVE-- (0.00 / 0)

...the link is wrong, and it's now ready for printing w/the caption added.  Print this out; take it to Kinko's, and resize it however you want--

http://my.barackobama.com/page...

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by: booradley @ Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 08:30:32 AM CST

ARG is #1 of all the pollsters in accuracy.. (0.00 / 0)

..and Rasmussen is usually one the worst.  So that's great new for Obama.  Wisconsin will also be a good indicator.

As an Arizona gal and an avid Obama supporter, I wondered about the effect of Clinton trolling the border for specifically Latino voters -on all the other voters?  
Some of my amigos say there's now more of an anti-Latino attitude in Texas than anti-African American among whites?

I think that's part of the reason neither McCain nor Clinton did better in Arizona.

VIVA OBAMA!

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by: hazmaq @ Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 01:36:44 AM CST

we get along (0.00 / 0)

laughable, because whites and Hispanics have a great relationship. If you don't live in Texas, stay out of our politics!!

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by: Mestsal @ Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 20:29:02 PM CST

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