The Barack Obama Campaign Arrives in Texas

Senator Clinton arrives in El Paso Tuesday, Feb 12 (3.00 / 1)

She is scheduled to appear at Haskins Arena on the UTEP campus and speak at 6:30 (but I'm betting she starts at 7, which is 9 eastern and 8 Texas).

The locals are agog and enthused, both due to her high profile appearance and the fact that Texas hasn't been in play during a national primary in anybody's memory.  While she hasn't typically been filling up arenas on her campaign stops, I have no doubt that when the Potomac primary returns start coming in, the Clinton photo op and sound bite will be at the center of an arena full of enthusiastic (mostly Hispanic) Democrats.

Very shrewd move on her campaign's part, IMO.

Meanwhile, I am hopeful that Obama will make it out our way before month's end (I think he will).  But I also think Obama's going to make it out to places besides Dallas-Austin-Houston-San Antonio-Laredo.  And I think that will be exciting.  I hope he does, anyway.

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by: carmelita @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:09:49 AM CST

This is like South Carolina ... (0.00 / 0)

and Super Tuesday all over again. She is down in the polls and is cutting her losses. So she has moved on to the March 4th primaries.

Rewind to a couple weeks ago. She was down in SC and so she moved on to some Super Tuesday states. Super Tuesday came, though, and she split it with Obama. If history replays itself then it doesn't look good for HRC. If/When Obama wins tonight he'll pick up an extra 50 or so delegates over HRC (that's my prediction for tonight's three primaries). Then they go on to the rest of February which HRC is also writing off and then they come to March 4th and split the delegates and Obama is squarely in the lead.

IMO, it isn't as shrewd as it is desperate, trying to solidify her base and put in a "stop loss" plan.

But, I bet we can both agree on the fact that we're pumped about the upcoming Austin debate!

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by: matthew_lt @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:22:24 AM CST

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Pumped indeed! (0.00 / 0)

And yes, this primary season promises to be exciting, chaotic and intense!  Good fun.  Somewhere, Molly is having a good laugh.

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by: carmelita @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 14:48:41 PM CST

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KT, there are no models for this (5.00 / 1)

I've been doing this since before you, Phil and Matt were born, and we've never seen such a high profile, one on one, competitive race, with so much money and organization poured into a Texas primary. So toss out the turnout models because this really is new.

The turnout record of 2.1 or 2.2 million was set in 1972 in the wake of the Sharpstown scandal - the first year I voted. In 1988, on the first "Southern Super Tuesday," 1.8 million votes were cast. Many of us think a record turnout is possible, even likely. But in any case, a large primary and precinct convention turnout offers the opportunity to expand this list of Texans we can contact to help us win elections all across this state in the fall.

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by: Ed Martin @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:37:04 AM CST

Oi (0.00 / 0)

Tell me about it. So many variables, so many possibilities. My brain hurts.

Texas Economics

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by: IVR Polls @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:27:49 AM CST

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I agree Ed (3.00 / 1)

But I should have clarified that sentence. I'll be able to do a better predictive model of Travis County turnout based upon the first couple of days of early vote. Having the files for every county election since 2004, there is a consistent ration of turnout over the 2 weeks of early vote. The big unknown of course, is the jump in vote share from early vote to election day.

I agree, it's going to be hard as hell to predict, but that's not going to keep me from trying (like predicting 20 of 22 super tuesday results, lol)

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:40:20 PM CST

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Harris County is prepared for (3.00 / 2)

about 100,000 Democratic voters.  But it might be as much as 200,000 or even 250.  (Some are whispering as many as 300,000.  Yikes.)

As Harris is typically about 18% of the statewide tally, extrapolation drives a statewide number of somewhere between 1.11 and 1.68 million Democrats voting in the primary.  I like K-T's numbers, but they may still be a little ambitious.

Whatever the numbers happen to be, this kind of turnout will surely result in long lines, equipment malfunctions, etc. at the polls on Election Day.  So encourage everyone you know to vote early.

Don't let the Blue Dogs getcha down. Primary them.

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by: PDiddie @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:01:23 AM CST

kick up that vote several notches (0.00 / 0)

I would love to see the numbers turn out in Houston.  There are worse things that can happen.

My advice is to push that early voting period.

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by: sonia @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 15:15:22 PM CST

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Thanks for the heads up (0.00 / 0)

I will definitely vote early with that kind of turnout!  

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by: Libby Shaw @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 16:56:04 PM CST

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2.5 - 3 million voters (0.00 / 0)

Trust me -- this is going to be ridiculous.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:33:47 AM CST

vouchers (0.00 / 0)

I read somewhere (cannot remember, possibly MyDD or FDL) that Obama was in favor of vouchers, is this true?  I was curious because I know that ParentPAC has evolved into a pretty strong organization over the last election cycle and if that might sway them to endorse.  Then again, I might be mistaken about his stance on the issue.  I'll definitely go search my usual blogs and see if I can find, but thought someone here might be able to set me straight.  I just remember the article was discussing issues that set Obama and McCain apart from their respective parties (and going into "maverick"-mode and all that) and this was an issue that was listed for Obama.  Any help here?

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by: Leviathan @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:37:03 PM CST

This article says (0.00 / 0)

he supports charter schools and is "open" to vouchers, but I am not an expert on this stuff.

http://thisweekineducation.blo...

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by: David Mauro @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:56:36 PM CST

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funny (0.00 / 0)

I read on mydd that Hillary supported vouchers (in a pro Hillary diary). I made a little comment about how we've been fighting those tooth and nail in TX. Gimme a few and I'll see if I can find the diary.

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by: trowaman @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 13:42:02 PM CST

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found it (0.00 / 0)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008...

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by: trowaman @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 13:43:15 PM CST

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Haha! (0.00 / 0)

Nevermind then, thanks for the info.  Although, I'm curious if that is actually her position, or just one that particular diarist at MyDD holds and is hoping she is in agreement with.  I only wonder that because I know HRC is backed by many teachers unions and orgs and I'm not sure how that would fly.  Thanks again!

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by: Leviathan @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 14:15:39 PM CST

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Not sure if she has ever said that (0.00 / 0)

Can't find a link.

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by: David Mauro @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 15:51:06 PM CST

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Hispanics will vote for ... (0.00 / 0)

The trend to pick up from the California primary race is an interesting one.  Among Hispanics, HRC clearly enjoyed an overwhelming number of support during the early voting period.   As each day of the early voting period progressed, HRC's support diminished somewhat.  Obama more than stood his own ground among election day Hispanic voters.   It seems to me that Hispanics voted for Clinton in bigger numbers early during the campaign because of her high name ID.  But, as Hispanics got to know who Obama is, Clinton's advantage begins to diminish.  Clearly, Obama will not be making the same mistake in Texas as he did in California ... waiting too long to introduce himself to the Hispanic community.  HRC's perceived advantage with the Hispanic community will be trumped, in the end, by Obama's inspiring message and most importantly, by his bigger campaign war chest.  

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by: Emiliano Zapata @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:56:26 PM CST

Out here in the west Texas town of El Paso ... (0.00 / 0)

based primarily on what I've been hearing on local talk radio, Hillary seems to be the solid favorite of older, more moderate, establishment type Hispanics.  But younger Hispanics are virtually unanimous in their support of Obama.  But that's just an impression I have.  I could be wrong ... I guess we'll see.

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by: carmelita @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 14:54:18 PM CST

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Also (3.00 / 1)

(I'm working on a diary on this) but all of South Texas has 4 delegates. In order for Clinton to not tie Obama, she'd have to get 62.51% in those Senate Districts. That's a pretty wide margin...versus Obama needing a smaller "majority" to win a split of some of the bigger senate districts with odd numbers...

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 16:53:31 PM CST

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You make an important point. (0.00 / 0)

If Obama starts to pick up a lead today and the rest of Feb and then only breaks even on March 4, or even comes just a little short in the popular vote, then Clinton has no real back ups.  

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by: matthew_lt @ Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 17:29:42 PM CST

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