Democrats Dominate Third Quarter Fundraising

Generally good news (0.00 / 0)

all around, especially for CD 10. Lots of active donors and interested money against McCaul.

But i'm a little disappointed to see no challengers for Sessions, John Carter, or Louis Gohmert. Will Pryor underperformed against Sessions in '06, but I think CD 32 is ripe for the taking; we'd need a strong candidate, but that area is trending Dem from all appearances.

---

by: SouthsideSmoke @ Tue Oct 16, 2007 at 13:17:49 PM CDT

Dallas Has A Problem (0.00 / 0)

As much as the recent numbers show some nice trends, there have been some recent problems including major headlines of an FBI indictment.  I don't know if this has any thing to do with the absence of a challenger for Sessions.  But, the Democratic brand is currently being sullied in Dallas.

---

by: blank @ Tue Oct 16, 2007 at 17:28:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Great diary, Matt! (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for keeping us up-to-date in the "dash-for-cash"!

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

---

by: liberaldemdave @ Tue Oct 16, 2007 at 14:15:52 PM CDT

Strength (3.00 / 1)

I thought that incumbents were supposed to, in a typical race, easily fund raise more than their challengers. The fund raising from this quarter adds legitimacy to the argument that McCaul is vulnerable, and that the right candidate can beat him.

So which candidate is the right one? When the self loan by Larry Joe Doherty is not taken into account, Dan Grant is running neck and neck with him. As for Doherty's ability to self finance, I for one, want to elect in the primary, a candidate which is most preferable because of his qualifications and positions. If Larry Joe Doherty has to "throw money at his problems" to remain competitive, then his strength as a candidate will necessarily be weakened. On the other hand, if Dan Grant continues to garner broader support (Grant has received his donation from a significantly larger number of people than Doherty), then it seems his strength as a candidate would naturally be greater.

These are recognizably speculative scenarios, however, and I look forward to the race ahead. The best news at this point though, is McCaul's characteristically weak performance.

---

by: John Shaw Jr. @ Tue Oct 16, 2007 at 22:37:53 PM CDT

Throw into the equation... (0.00 / 0)

LJD's Jerry Springer-esque persona from his syndicated "courtroom" show (think Judge Judy with an exaggerated Texas twang)and the decision making gets a little easier.

I can just see the attack ads using a snippet of LJD's appearance on Anna Nicole Smith's reality show.

My greatest fear of LJD winning the primary is that the Repukes will make the Democratic nominee look like a buffoon, regardless of his qualifications if the nominee is LJD.

I think that people should factor that issue in when deciding who to support.

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

---

by: liberaldemdave @ Wed Oct 17, 2007 at 14:18:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

that issue... (5.00 / 1)

I agree whole-heartedly. It seems pretty obvious that, were the Dems to for some odd reason not take his TV persona into account, the Republicans would jump all over it.

I know that if the roles were reversed, one of the easiest arguments against that hypothetical Republican would be his past role as a Judge Judy type, Texan spiced TV judge. It is in my opinion, a huge liability.

---

by: John Shaw Jr. @ Wed Oct 17, 2007 at 15:41:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't know what show you guys saw, (0.00 / 0)

but LJD was nothing like Jerry Springer or Judge Judy. At all. You're making far more out of this TV bidness than most voters will. One can just as easily see the GOP smear machine doing a nice hatchet job on Dan's youth & inexperience along with IDing him as a Birkenstock Belt liberal...but the bottom line is that McCaul has nothing positive to run on at this point, and a campaign based only on negatives is destined to fail. LJD is a good candidate for this race, as is Dan. It remains to be seen which of the two will do the best job of connecting with voters across the district, which is what really matters.

---

by: SouthsideSmoke @ Wed Oct 17, 2007 at 16:37:21 PM CDT

I must respectfully disagree with you, Southsidesmoke. (0.00 / 0)

Perception IS reality.

If you don't find it to be a liability then you are incredibly open-minded and I commend you for that open-mindedness.

I'm making more out of this than most voters because MOST voters don't even know who's running at this point. Only political junkies like those of us commenting on the blogs are following this far out. Dan's the only CD10 candidate that's gotten any NATIONAL press at this time. This is going to be a VERY high-profile race in the general election.

In 5 minutes and one Google search I found this:

http://www.slate.com...
http://www.burntoran...
http://www.amazon.co...
http://www.throwmysh...

Those are just the surface because I do have better things to do with my time than surf for this kind of stuff. I'm particularly fond of the publicity shot of LJD in his black robe, black cowboy hat and aiming a pistol at the camera. The NRA will LOVE that one!

Apparently, LJD or someone from his campaign sees it as a liability because his "personal" web site (prior to his candidate site) has been completely "scrubbed" of images and redirected to his campaign site. In fact, all traces of it have now been removed...Long enough ago for the Google cache to not find it (I just tried to find you a link is how I know it's "gone"...more sophisticated computer folks will be able to find it, I'm sure).

The Repubs WILL have a field day. I don't think that Dan, as a man of integrity, will use this against LJD. Dan also has the experience to lead.

Finally, regarding the "age" issue. It isn't one:

Presidents (minimum age 35):
Theodore Roosevelt - Elected at 42
JFK - Elected at 43
Bill Clinton - Elected at 46

Current Senators (minimum age 30):
Joe Biden - Elected at age 30
Edward Kennedy - Elected at age 31
Patrick Leahy - Elected at 35

Congressmen (minimum age 25):
Tim Ryan - Elected at 29
Devin Nunes - Elected at 29
Adam Putnam - Elected at 26*

*Re-elected UNOPOSED at 28.

These Congressmen will make Dan feel downright OLD!

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

---

by: liberaldemdave @ Wed Oct 17, 2007 at 18:08:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What does the NRA have to do with it? (0.00 / 0)

And how exactly will the GOP have a 'field day' with LJD's TV show? What exactly makes it a liability? The fact that he has a sense of humor that appealed to millions of viewers? Newsflash - owning or carrying a gun isn't a liability to a lot of voters in District 10. Do you wanna talk about the issues, the candidates' connections with actual voters, or your personal distaste for Larry Joe's show? I don't think Dan's age is a problem, or his liberal street cred in Austin, but it can just as easily be made into an issue as anything on LJD's resume, for all we know at the moment - but I'm not presuming to know what will play to a majority in District 10, either. 

you're the only one who thus far seems genuinely disturbed by all this. I think both candidates have some appeal, perhaps to different demographics, w/ some crossover, but I'm not seeing either as being more of a liability (as a candidate) than the other. Carry on fussing about whatever you please, Dave, but no reason to make something so trivial into a major issue just to cut off a solid candidate at the knees before the race is even out of the starting gate.

---

by: SouthsideSmoke @ Wed Oct 17, 2007 at 18:44:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If good "humor" was such a political asset (0.00 / 0)

...Kinky Friedman would be in the Governor's mansion.

I'm merely pointing out that it will be used against him if he wins the general and as a candidate, he needs to be prepared to defend it.

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

---

by: liberaldemdave @ Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 10:26:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dan has a sense of humor as well, dave. (0.00 / 0)

You still haven't been able to articulate how 'it' will be used against LJD, or even what segment of voters the GOP would appeal to with such a tactic.

---

by: SouthsideSmoke @ Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 11:08:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Negative politics works, unfortunately. (0.00 / 0)

We don't have to look any further than the Whitehouse to see that. Karl Rove has made a career out of negative politics.

You and I are going to just have to agree to disagree that "Texas Justice" isn't going to be a liability.

If you'll look at the links I posted above, you'll see what "critics" think of the persona that I find irritating. I have no personal axe to grind re: LJD, I just don't think he's the right choice to go up against McCaul.

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

---

by: liberaldemdave @ Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 12:02:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But maybe not as much (3.00 / 1)

as it used to. I don't think I'm being too naive when I say that people really are getting tired of negative advertising, especially the vicious way the Republicans go about it. Sure, it'll still be somewhat effective, but I think if it's overplayed (like the GOP inevitably does it), there'll be a lot of negative blowback on them. People are fed up with the Republicans on a lot of levels.

---

by: davew @ Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 19:53:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Negative politics stink...but... (0.00 / 0)

http://www.scripps.o...

"Effectiveness of Negative Political Advertising

A significant trend in today's political advertising is the increasing use of negative political advertising. In today's political campaign, candidates, either challengers or incumbents, use negative ads from the beginning of a political campaign. After examining more than 1,100 political commercials, Sabato asserted that:

Even when television is used to communicate political truth (at least from one candidate's perspective), the truth can be negatively packaged-attacking the opponent's character and record rather than supporting one's own. If there is a single trend obvious to most American consultants, it is the increasing proportion of negative political advertising.... At least a third of all spot commercials in recent campaigns have been negative, and in a minority of campaigns half or more of the spots are negative in tone or substance."

Fortunately, Dan is above this tactic in the primary.

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

---

by: liberaldemdave @ Thu Oct 18, 2007 at 21:50:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You may have also noticed (0.00 / 0)

How Bonilla's nasty negative campaign against Ciro backfired horribly on him during the runoff last year - questioning Ciro's patriotism and trying to directly link him to terrorist money. Lately I think voters in general have recoiled from nasty attacks and tend to view them as reeking of desperation. For the most part, these ads are geared toward turning out one's own base by angering/inciting them; they don't do a whole lot to turn swing voters and in fact may be turning them off more often than not.

My inclination is that the swing voters in CD 10 will tend to be folks who enjoyed (or would have enjoyed) Larry Joe's show and persona, anchored as it is in a good-natured humanism a la John Henry Faulk, etc. McCaul attacking LJD on this front won't help him with Democrats who are dead set against him, and IO don't see how it will be a big motivator for his own base, as many of them were also part of the Texas Justice audience; he can't really hang something seriously negative on LJD other than perhaps being a trial lawyer, but I don't think that dog's really hunting much anymore for them. Also, LJD's notoriety has the potential to engage and bring out some potential new voters who might not otherwise be interested in the race. Comparing him to kinky is dubious at best.

Anyhow, that's all speculation on my part; remains to be seen who can cobble together enough support to win this primary, and regardless of who wins I'll support them in November.

---

by: SouthsideSmoke @ Fri Oct 19, 2007 at 09:04:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Seriously (5.00 / 1)

Southside Smoke,

I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but do you honestly not see how LJD's TV show would be used against him?  Honestly?


"He that takes truth for his guide, and duty for his end, may safely trust to God's providence to lead him aright." --Blaise Pascal

---

by: Pascalini @ Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 19:23:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sorry Pascalini, but... (0.00 / 0)

Southside has a long history here of attempts to justify the Texas Justice persona as an asset.

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

---

by: liberaldemdave @ Sat Oct 27, 2007 at 12:48:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Inexperience? (5.00 / 1)

I don't see how ten years of foreign policy work in conflict zones overseas can be spun as inexperience.

Full Disclosure: Former Political Director for Lee Leffingwell for Mayor of Austin, and now nonpartisan Executive Director of LWV-TX

---

by: sccs @ Wed Oct 17, 2007 at 22:15:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

IMPRESSIVE! (5.00 / 1)

SCCS,  you are absolutely right.  Dan's qualifications are astounding.

"He that takes truth for his guide, and duty for his end, may safely trust to God's providence to lead him aright." --Blaise Pascal

---

by: Pascalini @ Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 18:37:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Great Candidates in CD 10 (5.00 / 1)

  We had a great candidate last time, but no money.  Now we have Two great candidates AND they have no trouble raising money.  I can't wait for next November!

Don't default to the bastards!

---

by: rwcold @ Wed Oct 17, 2007 at 21:35:26 PM CDT