( - promoted by Matt Glazer)
Here is a bit of the number crunching going on in Austin. It is important to realize that this is an uphill fight that everyone agrees must be fought.
The Numbers
There are roughly 5,800 voters in HD 29 who voted in every one of the following elections: 2005 Constitutional, 2006 General, 2006 Primary, 2004 General and 2002 General.
For simplicity sake, these are the people that will wake up tomorrow and likely vote. Of these likely voters, about 60% are Republicans and 40% Democrats.
One source close to the campaign believes that total turnout could be as high as 7,000 to 9,300 based on the special election in HD 121 and HD 48. I tend to think the number will be closer to 7,000 than 6,000 because of the need to inflate the Democratic base in order to win.
On average, Democrats in statewide elections have received around 34% in HD 29. That means the hardcore voters in the district are slightly more Democratic than average voters, but there would still be a significant partisan hill to climb.
The Pearland Factor
Pearland is the biggest and fastest growing portion of the district. Representing a quarter of the population, the percentage of vote (over half of the Brazoria County vote), Pearland cannot be ignored. New construction over the past decade added over 20,000 voters with little to no voting history and with very shallow community roots.
The Census estimates already indicate 50% growth since 2000 in the total population of Pearland.
The Matagorda Effect
In the General Elections, Matagorda County usually accounts for 11 - 25% of the vote share:
- 2002 - 25.9% of voters in HD29
- 2004 - 11.7% of voters in HD29
- 2006 - 21.0% of voters in HD29
Interestingly, Matagorda makes up close to 90% of the total population of voters that vote in the Democratic Party with 3,668 total votes.
The need now is to ensure that all of these voters are contacted and informed that an election is going on. As one blogger on the ground put it, "voter contact with dems is showing a very low awareness that an election is happening."
There is an easy way to fix that. |
