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Post-Debate Gubernatorial Poll

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:36 PM CDT

While I'm not one to put too much weight into polls done by the Texans for Insurance Reform PAC, being able to compare two of them side by side from the PAC at the very least gives us a sense of momentum and change.

And boy, there was some change after the one TX-Gov Debate. Prior numbers in (*).

Perry (R)34.4%(32.9)
Bell (D)18.7%(13.6)
Strayhorn (I)18.5%(20)
Friedman (I)8.6%(14.1)

If you don't think the debate (and Kinky's pathetic performance and Bell's very good one) matters, well, it does. There is finally momentum in this race and it's in Bell's favor. If you apply the same shift to other polls were more in line with reality to begin with, this 3 way tie for second would finally be over.

Also note, this poll was before the major new media out there.


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well said, K.T. (0.00 / 0)
and this poll precedes the real impact of Chris' media.

good point (0.00 / 0)
This was before the big mega buck and ads.

[ Parent ]
20.9% undecided then? (0.00 / 0)
I don't really know what this tells us, it's really anybody's race still.  Why such a large number undecided?  Don't they usually include UD's in the poll results?  Or did you just not post the UD% ?  It's a curiously large number, is it not, compared to other polls...

oh no oh no oh no (0.00 / 0)
Kinky lost support! Rationalize! Rationalize!

[ Parent ]
New polls? (0.00 / 0)
Any idea as to when we will see some new polling that's somewhat reputable?  Say, WSJ/Zogby?  I would have thought they would poll after the debate, but I have yet to be able to find mention of any results...

Bell has slightly more traction than my car in snow (0.00 / 0)
but, hopefully he can get over 25% in polls before the election.

based on other polls, (0.00 / 0)
a lot of the undecided's are base Democrats who still don't recognize Bell. If that's the case, now that his media and Perry's both define Bell as the Democratic alternative, should those votes fall to Bell, he naturally moves up to a solid second and rising.

Conisder the fact that Perry's base knows who he is (and know how they feel about him), Grandma is pretty well known, and Kinky is tanking, and it's obvious who has the most to gain from the undecided's.

That said, it is still a steep hill due to Perry's R base unless Grandma or Kinky cut deeply enough into them and not Bell's, but it's not freezing anymore along Bell's route. Just check out Bob Ray Sanders' column in today's Ft. Worth Star Telegram - describing last Sunday's rain-soaked Bell rally in Ft. Worth's African American community, and the possibility of solid base turnout and a close race is evident.

I would like to be optomistic (0.00 / 0)
I'm still a little suspicous, and I think we will need to see another poll or two first.  I would have expected Strayhorn to tank after that debate, not Kinky.  I wouldn't be surprised if they under-represented youth and therefore under-represented both Kinky and Bell supporters.

"I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."- James A. Baldwin

The TIR poll is a traditional telephone pool so it undercounts the (5.00 / 1)
Democratic-leaning demographic of those who have no land line phone service (internet or cell only households). 

Moreover, the TIR polling sample is deliberately skewed to a 40% Republican, 30% Democrat, 30% Independent pool. It cannot hardly be a coincidence that this poll conducted by Strayhorn supporters overselects Independents.  Moreover, even Gene Kelly style no-campaign Democrats traditionally do much better than 30% so the Democratic Party base assumed by the TIR pollster is low.  Hell, in non-presidential elections Texas Democrats generally get almost 23% in straight party vote alone.

If you had access to the internal numbers and could refigure those numbers to shift 5% of the independents (reducing them to 25%) to the Democrats (increasing them to 35%) and gave both Kinky and Bell a tiny boost on grounds that the undersampled cell-only demographic probably skews toward them, I bet you'd see numbers a bit like this:

34% - Perry
21% - Bell
17% - Strayhorn
8% - Kinky

The large undecided vote should break for the non-incumbents.

If Kinky stays where he is and Strayhorn drops to about 12% (which seems entirely probably in light of the fact that Strayhorn's main - only? - appeal has been her supposed electability and that myth seems to be fading), this election would be very winnable.

[ Parent ]
ZOGBY POLL (0.00 / 0)
None of you will be suspicious when you see the Zogby numbers tomorrow. Chris has put an ocean between himsellf and Kinky/Carole.

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