A poll by Forensic Economic Data Consulting, Inc. It was a robocall poll of 500 randomly-selected likely voters in TX 10. The statistical margin of error for this number of responders is 4.4%.
Q1. Are you a registered voter who intends to vote in the election? Only "yes" answers continued with the call
Q2. Michael McCaul is your current Representative in Congress. What are your thoughts on his reelection?
34.7% Would you definitely vote to reelect him
39.1% Would you consider other candidates
26.1% Would you definitely vote to replace him
Q3. The three Candidates for Congress are Michael McCaul, the Republican, Ted Ankrum, the Democrat, and Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian.
50.8% Would you vote for Michael McCaul, the Republican
41.6% Would you vote for Ted Ankrum, the Democrat
7.6% Would you vote for Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian
Q4 In times such as these, should a Representative follow the lead of the President or follow the opinion of voters in their District? In a situation where the two do not agree:
23.2% The Representative should follow the President
76.8% The Representative should follow the voters
Q5. What is your opinion of President Bush' job performance on a scale of 1 to 4, where 1 means you strongly approve and 4 means you strongly disapprove?
25.7% Strongly approve
22.8% Somewhat approve
9.4% Some disapproval
42.0% Strong disapproval
Wow. 65.2% of the respondents will consider a different candidate, or definitely replace him. Bush has a 51.4% disapproval rating, with only 23.2% stating strong approval. Combine that with the 3:1 results for "Representatives should follow the voters, rather than the President", and the future does not look bright for Rep. McCaul.
And I've got to say, Ankrum has been all over that district and as a resume that is hard to beat. I know that there hasn't been that much blog attention to the race, but as the coordinated campaign here in Travis heats up, I'm sure we'll have more info as his district overlaps most of Strama's and some of Howard's.
