Redistricting: Lone Star Project Overview

by: Phillip Martin

Tue Jul 18, 2006 at 00:55 PM CDT

State Defendant Plan - 1418C

This plan was filed by Greg Abbott on behalf of Rick Perry, Tom Craddick and David Dewhurst.  Although the plan involves only four Congressional Districts, CD21 (L Smith), CD23 (Bonilla), CD25 (Doggett) and CD28 (Cuellar), it is highly disruptive and overtly partisan with the duel purposes of removing Lloyd Doggett from Congress and redrawing CD23 as safe for a Republican.

Key Features:

• The plan moves more than half of the residents of the four districts from one district into another.  Over 1.4 million would be disrupted and moved to a new district.
• Webb County is united into CD28 (Cuellar), but the district itself is shifted dramatically westward to El Paso and northward to the border with CD11.  Only part of Webb County, Medina County and part of South San Antonio remain from the current CD28.
• CD23 (Bonilla) is altered dramatically and converted from a border majority Hispanic District to a safe Republican district anchored by suburban areas of Bexar, Travis, and adjacent Hill Country counties.  This configuration of CD23, even though it includes Bonilla's home, creates essentially a new Republican district.
• CD25 (Doggett) is reconfigured as an open majority Hispanic seat for the purpose of "replacing" CD23 as an Hispanic opportunity district, and is anchored by population in Hidalgo County, for the purpose of "replacing" CD23 as an Hispanic opportunity district.  The district absorbs population currently in CD28 (Cuellar) in Zapata County and in counties to the north including Wilson and Gonzalez.  Finally, the district literally splits South San Antonio Hispanic residents with the newly configured CD28.
• In an effort to eliminate Lloyd Doggett, the GOP map grossly divides heavily Democratic Travis County between three Republican districts - CD23 (Bonilla), CD21 (L Smith) and CD 10 (McCaul). 100,000 Hispanics in Southeast and South Austin are "cracked" into both CD23 and CD21, where they will have influence in neither. African American voters in Travis are cracked between all three GOP districts.

Vulnerabilities: The GOP plan seems inconsistent with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, especially because it does not appear to remedy the Voting Rights Act violations in the old Bonilla district.

• The plan moves literally hundreds of thousands of residents from one district to another - far more than necessary to remedy the Voting Rights violation raised by the Supreme Court.
• The plan divides Bexar County and the City of San Antonio into five districts, yet leaves it with only one (CD20) not in a Republican district, and it places Bonilla firmly anchored there.  In particular, the historic Hispanic Southside is literally sheared in two.
• It removes Travis County population as part of CD25, but maintains it as a "replacement district" to CD23 and keeps it as an elongated "bacon strip" district that extends from the Texas/Mexico border to the outskirts of Austin.  In this sense it resembles the configuration of the 25th that the Supreme Court so harshly criticized.
• The plan puts two senior Texas Members of Congress in jeopardy.  It pairs Doggett with Lamar Smith in a new Anglo Republican district with a huge majority of "new" voters who could oust him for an Anglo Republican.
• The State's brief misleads the Court by incorrectly claiming that Doggett currently resides in CD10 when, in fact, he resides in CD25.

Jackson Plaintiff Plan - C1406C (includes Dem. Members of Congress)

This plan was submitted on behalf of various private citizens and several Members of the Democratic Congressional Delegation (contrary to some reports, Sheila Jackson Lee is NOT one of the Plaintiffs).  The plan is narrowly tailored to closely track the language in the Supreme Court opinion.  It affects only four districts and disrupts far fewer residents than the GOP submission.

Key Features:

• Webb County is united and returned to CD23 (Bonilla).  The Hispanic voting age population is increased from 50.9 percent to 67 percent.  Bonilla retains a majority of the population he has represented in the past, giving him a fair opportunity to win re-election. While Henry Cuellar represents CD28, which now includes part of Webb County, he currently lives (and has always lived) in CD23, so this is not a literal "pairing." Cuellar would have the opportunity to seek re-election in either CD23 or in an open CD28.
• CD28 (Cuellar) is shifted east, picking up population in Hidalgo County and other counties to the north currently in CD25 (Doggett), maintaining the district as an effective Hispanic opportunity district.
• CD25 (Doggett) is contracted to the north and picks up all of the Travis County population currently in CD21 (L Smith).  The district is compact, extending south only to Gonzales County, and would be strongly anchored in Travis County, where Lloyd Doggett could expect to be re-elected.
• CD21 (L Smith) shifts out of Travis County and picks up Hill Country population northwest of Bexar County that had always been part of CD21, as well as adjacent Guadalupe and Wilson Counties from the current CD28.  Smith retains his core areas of Bexar County and could expect to be re-elected.

Vulnerabilities:The Plan was offered by Democrats to a three-judge court that includes two Republican appointees.

• Cuellar can be expected to publicly oppose the plan, because it unites Webb into CD23, although several other plans do the same thing.

This plan attempts to salvage the Hispanic influence in current CD25 (Doggett) while also satisfying the Supreme Court by restoring CD23 to a Hispanic opportunity District.

Key Features:

• Webb County is united into CD23 (Bonilla).  CD23 picks up additional population from CD11 (Conaway).  The Hispanic voting age population is increased from 50.9 percent to 63 percent.
• CD28 (Cuellar) shifts east and north to pick up portions of Hidalgo County and areas northward to Caldwell County currently in CD25 (Doggett).
• CD25 is reconstructed to connect Hispanic and surrounding neighborhoods in Travis County by a narrow strip through Hays and Comal Counties into South San Antonio to create a strongly Democratic district with a Hispanic voting age population of just under fifty percent (48.3 percent).
• CD21 (L Smith) gives up most of Blanco County to CD11 (Conaway), while picking up Hill Country counties from CD23 (Bonilla).

Vulnerabilities:

• The plan affects five districts rather than the assumed minimum of four.  The exchanges with CD11 (Conaway) were likely unnecessary to achieve the map's purpose.
• The proposed CD25 connects Travis and Bexar Counties with a narrow land strip along I-35 through Hays and Comal Counties, creating a bizarre appearance.
• While the new CD25 is characterized as a Hispanic "growth" district, it actually excludes most of the Hispanic growth areas in Travis and Bexar Counties and connects older, more established neighborhoods.

LULAC Plans A & B - 1415C, 1416C

Ed. note - click on the plan numbers to view the maps.

These five (and four) district plans attempt to "squeeze" in a seventh majority Hispanic district in the South Texas/Border region.  Two versions are offered to demonstrate that the additional district could be added whether Webb County is united into CD28 as in Plan A or into CD23 as in Plan B.

Key Features:

• In Plan A, the Hispanic voting age population in CD23 (Bonilla) is increased from 50.9 percent to 61.5 percent by picking up additional Hispanic population in Bexar County, particularly South San Antonio from CD28 (Cuellar), CD20 (Gonzalez) and CD 21 (L Smith).
• CD28 is maintained as a majority Hispanic District by picking up additional border area Hispanic Counties Dimmit and Zavala.
• CD25 is maintained as a majority Hispanic District that retains its current configuration of extending from Hispanic neighborhoods in Travis County to the Texas/Mexico border, with changes in Hays and Caldwell Counties in the north.
• CD23 (L Smith) picks up more Hill Country Counties to the far west, such as Edwards and Crockett.
• CD20 (Gonzalez) sees its Hispanic voting age population reduced from 64.3 percent to 58.2 percent.
• In Plan B, the major difference is that Webb County is united into CD23.
• CD28 (Cuellar) is maintained as a bare Hispanic voting age majority district of only 55.4 percent.
• CD20 (Gonzalez) is also reduced to only 57.4 Hispanic voting age population.
• CD25 (Doggett) remains identical to the current plan as an elongated district connecting Hispanics in Travis County with the Hidalgo Co. on the Texas/Mexico border.

Vulnerabilities:

• The Supreme Court specifically ruled that the State was not required to draw seven majority Hispanic border districts.
• The Hispanic voting age population of CD23 is increased only to 61.5%, short of the 63% HVAP in the old Bonilla district and perhaps inadequate to remedy the Voting Rights violation in District 23.
• The plans retain CD25 in its elongated, non-compact configuration.
• The plans unnecessarily redraw CD20 (Gonzalez) and, in doing so, reduced the Hispanic voting age population.
• The plans are not "zeroed out" for equal population, which, when corrected, could affect the number of districts affected and other relevant data.

Travis County Plans 1 & 2 - 1414C, 1413C

Ed. note - click on the plan numbers to view the maps.

These plans demonstrate that the District Court can easily unite Webb County into either CD23 (Bonilla) or CD28 (Cuellar) and also create a compact CD25 (Doggett) that is anchored in Travis County.

Key Features - Plan One:

• Plan One unites Webb into CD23 (Bonilla) raising the Hispanic voting age population from 50.9 percent to 64.7 percent.
• CD28 (Cuellar) moves east to take in Hidalgo County and other population north currently in CD 25 (Doggett).
• CD25 becomes a compact Travis County centered district by picking up population from CD21 (L Smith) and CD10 (McCaul).
• CD21 remains partially in Travis but gives up enough population to move west to pick up Hill Country counties surrendered by CD23 (Bonilla).

Key Features - Plan Two:

• Plan Two unites Webb into CD28 (Cuellar) and increases the Hispanic voting age in CD23 (Bonilla) to 63 percent primarily by capturing Bexar County population currently in CD28.
• Both plans also improve the Hispanic voting age population in CD15 (Hinojosa) by moving some of the Hidalgo County population currently in CD25 to CD15 and then moving northern counties in CD15 into CD10 (McCaul).
• Both plans move all South Texas districts south of I-10 and out of Central Texas to shorten all the elongated districts.

Vulnerabilities:

• The plans affect six districts rather than the assumed minimum of four.
• The plans retain the current Travis County three-way split rather than only two districts.

Bipartisan Congressional Compromise Plan - 1422C/1425C

Ed. note - click on the plan numbers to view the maps.

This is a somewhat bizarre plan that appears cobbled together to satisfy a Henry Cuellar "wish list" and to provide Bonilla and Smith with options they would like much better than the State's proposed GOP plan.  Cuellar, Bonilla and Smith are NOT parties to the lawsuit, so it is unclear whether their motion to intervene will be accepted by the District Court.

Key Features:

• The plan maintains a Webb County and City of Laredo split, giving CD23 (Bonilla) 43 percent of the County and CD28 (Cuellar) 57 percent.
• CD23 (Bonilla) picks up some additional Hispanic population in Bexar County.
• CD28 (Cuellar) moves east into Hidalgo County, where CD 15 is given more population, changing the way the county is divided by making a strange-looking, unexplained cut.
• CD25 (Doggett) is moved north and made more compact, but it is extended south and west into Bexar County and given African American and some Hispanic population there. It also picks up the Bastrop Co. portion of CD15 to facilitate changes in Hidalgo Co.
• The 1422C map makes very slight and unexplained changes in CD11 (Conaway) and CD20 (Gonzalez) which are eliminated in 1425C.

Vulnerabilities:

• The brief supporting the map says it affects only five districts, but 1422C affected seven. The "amended" 1425C affects five. Either way, the plan affects more than the assumed minimum of four districts by making changes in District 15 unrelated to a remedy for the Voting Rights violation.
• It fails to unite Webb County, or even the City of Laredo, into any single district.
• The plan breaks Bexar County into five districts, yet leaves it as the primary anchor to only one (CD20).
• The change in CD15 (Hinojosa) appears to be justified for no reason other than to weaken a potential Cuellar opponent.
• The plan is poorly drafted and would not likely be taken seriously were it not offered as a bipartisan compromise that indicates congressional Republicans do not approve of the State defendants' map.  In fact, the brief accompanying the plan states that ALL congressional Republicans support the compromise plan - a claim NOT made by the State when submitting its plan.

Other Plans

Overstreet - 1421C:  This is a fairly well crafted plan that affects five districts.  It unites Webb into CD23 (Bonilla) bringing its Hispanic voting age population to 66.5 percent, draws a more compact CD25 (Doggett), and CD28 moves into Hidalgo County. The plan remedies the Voting Rights objection in CD23 and is similar in some respects to elements of the Jackson and Travis Co. plans, with the exception of CD21 cut into Travis Co.  The fifth district affected is CD10 (McCaul), but changes are minor, and it remains safely Republican.

Pate & Owens Plans: Pate and Owens are individual citizens who have offered redistricting alternatives since at least 1991.  They are not parties to the suit and are generally not taken seriously.