My Post-DNC Thoughts (and why Julian Castro will be the 46th President)

Your scenario for Castro focuses on Biden (0.00 / 0)

So your scenario for a Castro presidency is to follow Biden as the president. It all hinges on Biden, meaning that's the only path. It's an interesting scenario and probably the most unique out there.

Unfortunately I don't think it's plausible since Clinton seems to be garnering the most attention as the 2016 nominee. Do any of your scenarios take that into account?

Secondly, while that might be interesting for Castro it does create a political gamble for him in furthering his career. One thing you don't take into account is that Castro is a long-game person and would be content to wait it out. Following a Biden bid as VP has a lot of risks, possibly consigning him to reality TV if Biden lost.

It's a neat scenario but it's an outlier, in my opinion.

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by: RBearSAT @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 15:11:19 PM UTC

A Clinton-Castro ticket (0.00 / 0)

Would probably surge Latino voter turnout to heights never before seen. That would be cool, and I could see Texas being in play in 2016 if that was the ticket.


I'm not a player, I just Tweet a lot: @KathTX

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by: Katherine Haenschen @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 15:28:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Castro for SOS... then President (0.00 / 0)

Biden will be 74 in 2016 which would make him the oldest Presidential candidate in US history. That's older than McCain(72)and Reagan (69) when they ran for President. I can't really see Biden until serving until the age of 76 or 80.

Clinton will be 70 in 2016. While she is by far the most qualified and one of the most knowledgeable and respected political figures in the world, I'd be interested in seeing if she's still got the fire she had in 2008 if pitted against someone like Rubio.

On that note, since Clinton is retiring from the SOS after the 2012 election, SOS Julian Castro might be interesting. Following by Presidential candidate Julian Castro.  

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by: PaulR @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 17:01:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Path to president (0.00 / 0)

I did a column in Plaza de Armas about Castro's next big move. In that column, I pointed out that the path to the presidency has been through one or more of three offices - governor, US senator, or Vice President, with the later being the longest shot.

No cabinet member has ascended to president since Herbert Hoover. What's to say this would change, especially with the ferocity we vet candidates with these days.

I think a LOT of people are ignoring reality in living in fantasy situations.

How about we just elect some Democrat to a statewide office. What's wrong with Land Commissioner, Comptroller, or Agriculture Commissioner? After all, that's how Perry started the shift in statewide offices.

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by: RBearSAT @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 19:13:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My example (0.00 / 0)

Takes one of those 3 paths- Vice President. So it is more reality than not right?

My point is that if narrative becomes the "sell" in politics, there is no reason for Castro to waste his time on Texas waking up one of these days and deciding to elect a Democrat. Instead, he could vault up through the Vice Presidency (and sure, that could still happen from something higher than Mayor, I'm not denying that- that's actually more likely in a 2-term Biden with a potential split Vice Presidency opening up the spot in 2020 instead of 2024.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 20:50:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's only happened once (0.00 / 0)

That path has only existed once (notwithstanding a president passing away in office) with George H.W. Bush. It's a far outside chance. Besides, Bush had experience in foreign policy through the CIA which would probably challenge Castro.

Castro needs some other experience before moving into the line-up.

It could happen. Remember, any child born in America can grow up to be president. But there are proven paths and VP is a remote chance.

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by: RBearSAT @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 23:32:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

not as big of a political gamble as you think (5.00 / 1)

Unless Julian Castro is elected to a statewide office in 2014 (and that's surely possible, although its likelihood isn't great), where else does he go? 2016 offers only Railroad Commissioner races on the statewide ballot in Texas, so if he doesn't run in 2014 then he might want to wait until 2018...and waiting to run for something higher would make him stale as a political prospect. Or he runs in 2016 for a low-attention Railroad Commission spot?

Further, if Obama wins a second term, it's not a bad bet that the economy will finally bolster before 2016 and Democrats will be favored to win that presidential election. (This is the reason this 2012 presidential election is so important -- the winner may very well take lots of credit for the economy regardless of their policies.)

So if, once again, Obama wins reelection and Castro isn't a statewide officeholder after the 2014 elections...why wouldn't he accept the VP nom from Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, or anyone else?

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams

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by: Michael Hurta @ Mon Sep 17, 2012 at 05:20:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why wait to Turn Texas Blue? (5.00 / 1)

This was my first national convention and it was truly amazing and a honor to attend. It was the first political event of any sort, where I was able to just truly enjoy myself and soak it all in. It was wonderful to see so many beautiful faces and share this beautiful week with them. The excitement was real, the speeches were great and the tone was that of a campaign marching to re-election. I could not help but feel that the Democrats just knocked the Romney Ryan campaign off their high horse, were kicking them while they were down and then just put a boot on their neck. All while speaking calmly and pointing to simple arithmetic.

Like many other people from Texas, I felt this convention really put some momentum in the step of Texas Democrats, wind in the sails of our collective Turn Texas Blue dream. Maybe it was just because so many of us became famous from being on TV, or maybe because the kool-aid was strong, there is no doubt we all could feel the energy in the air.

However I think there was more to it than kool-aid. I think given the national spotlight the Castro's and other Texans filled so well,  the national discussion began to turn to something we have had brewing in Texas for years. "It might be possible to turn Texas blue. What happens if Texas is a battle ground? What happens if Democrats actually win the war? It will be a game changer. Nothing will ever be the same."

Even Nate Silver could not help but pile on. Fueling the fire nationally about what so many of us have been working on, believing in and fighting for, for so long. Part of me wants to yell, no duh! Why the hell do you think Texas Democrats have been fighting so hard for so long?

Honestly though, I am just excited that the cat is out of the bag. The discussion about winning Texas is now out in the wild nationally and the future is wide open. I  have believed since I was the Field Director for Obama in 2008 that the pieces to the puzzle are on the table, its just a question can we put it together? The answer is simply, YES WE CAN.

I love KT's scenario. And Kath25's is a sure fire ticket to some high octane grassroots excitement. But I am going to dream big for a moment. I don't believe we need a handout, we can build this ourselves. I have always believed that if we can get a Democrat into the Governors office, that Texas Democrat would be on the short list for President. If you are able to win Texas, its hard to argue with front runner status out of the gate.

And I truly believe, we as Texas Democrats can do this. Our math is already there. Our base is already registered and just waiting for someone to come talk to them. Our major county parties are already running coordinated campaigns, we just need to coordinated a campaign statewide. Our rural counties are hungry. Our candidates are already giving the keynotes at the DNC Convention, they are just waiting to see if we can build the infrastructure of political opportunity.

I believed that it was possible for a one term US Senator to jump up and grab the Presidency, why not a one term Texas Governor? A Texas Governor who just took out the longest serving Governor in Texas history. Why should we wait for 2016 for the national organizations to dictate the time to kick the tires and light the fires? I don't want to sit through one more cycle while we wait for the time. I know that we have the people power, I know we have the candidates and walking out of the convention, I felt a little bit of the good ol fashion momentum.  

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by: JD Gins @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 18:00:52 PM UTC

Texas won't turn purple until after 2016 (0.00 / 0)

I hear these comments all the time every time we come to a big election cycle and it's always from the hardcore folks, the ones that attend the conventions. What I don't see is them looking at the reality of the matter.

First of all, the demographics are not there yet but are happening. Hispanic voter growth is increasing and is on a trajectory for 2014 for at least one down ballot statewide office PROVIDED Texas Democrats will field the right candidate AND the party machinery will back that candidate solidly. Urban growth continues to be more progressive and will continue as people move from outside Texas to the state.

But to say we are ready to take the governor's office in 2014 is just plain ridiculous. Abbott's pretty much got that race locked up.

The biggest challenge with Hispanic voters is that they have low turnout, some of the lowest in the nation. If they don't show up to the polls then nothing happens. Democrats are great at registering voters but lousy at turning out when it's time.

KT did put a scenario out there but it's an outlier which shows me no one is really seriously looking at a true build the bench strategy. I thought I'd play along with this scenario game but, once again, it's more of the Hail Mary pass scenario and nothing about long game strategy.

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by: RBearSAT @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 19:10:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2014 GOV race (0.00 / 0)

- I'm not going to doubt Rick Perry and his chances of winning a Texas Republican primary. I'm just not. I'm not going to put his chances at extraordinarily high, but if he wants to run then they are higher than Abbott's.

- While Rick Perry started at a lower office, it's worth remembering that Republicans started their takeover of Texas through the state's top office. First, Governor and Senator are the only two statewide offices that are capable to garner a significant amount of attention on their own. Second, Governor as a political office (unlike Senator) does not rely so much on party politics as it does on charisma and personal policy platforms. While I have often disagreed with the heavy spending trying to swing voters, Governor is the one position where a good campaign is very capable of swinging voters, never the less.

If Rick Perry runs again and looks the slightest bit strong to win the nomination, Democrats would be stupid not to get Julian Castro or Cecile Richards to run and go all out to win.  

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams

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by: Michael Hurta @ Mon Sep 17, 2012 at 05:28:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the feedback Debbie D. (0.00 / 0)

You are right. I am one of the convention attending, hardcore folks, with no clear understanding of reality. I am "just plain ridiculous." I have no perspective on the matter. I have never done any work in the field of statewide organizing in Texas.  Never worked on this math problem before.

"...2014 for at least one down ballot statewide office PROVIDED Texas Democrats will field the right candidate AND the party machinery will back that candidate solidly."

You and I do agree on this. We need a state party based coordinated campaign to make any campaign viable. Does not matter if its for the top of the ticket or down ballot.  I am not sure why it could not be governor? And I think that Abbot might have to talk to Perry about it being locked up. But golly you know whats up, so lets bank it.

Pack it up folks, its clear we have no chance in 2014. Good to know we are throwing in the 2014 towel before the 2012 cycle is even over.

In all honesty our math is not that far off. Our targeting is what is off. We are around 500k votes short in Governor year. We can find those votes already registered in safe democratic house districts.

We just need to go talk to them.

You and I do agree, we need a long term base building strategy. If we want to see increased turnout in base precincts than then we need to spend time talking to voters in base precincts. There is not a magic wand that can be waved and turnout base voters, its just good old fashion organizing.

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by: JD Gins @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 20:37:50 PM UTC

Reality (0.00 / 0)

See, I can already see you're not really following the political movements in TX regarding these races. Let's start with Abbott and the governor's race. Perry has essentially announced but Abbott has already said he'd challenge Perry even if Perry does run. Words coming from a lot of insiders say that Perry may say he'll run but the support just isn't there for him. Expect Perry to pull out and go make some money.

Looking at the numbers, those 500K voters would have been 10% more of the voting population in that race. Finding 10% in a race that historically runs 35% turnout is pretty challenging.  Unless you can accomplish some miracle, it's not going to happen.

But when I mention a down ballot race, it's like that's just absurd. You need to follow the track of how Republicans turned the statewides around for their favor. Perry didn't start out running for governor or lite gov. He started in the Ag Commissioner slot and built statewide name recognition, as well as working with an energized based established by Rove.

This is what frustrates me about the TDP. There is no real strategy. Just a bunch of people nostalgic for the good old days and idealistic that voters are just going to wake up and vote Democratic ("we just need to talk to them"). I'm not throwing in the towel. I'm just saying we're not even in the game to throw a towel in.

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by: RBearSAT @ Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 23:42:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You win buddy. (0.00 / 0)

You have convinced me you know more than I do. About the inside workings of the republican establishment, the game changing math, where to start our comeback and general optimism.

But for the shake of arguing with a know it all...

"Looking at the numbers, those 500K voters would have been 10% more of the voting population in that race. Finding 10% in a race that historically runs 35% turnout is pretty challenging.  Unless you can accomplish some miracle, it's not going to happen."

I do know something, we have never even really tried it. A surge of 500K voters is not impossible it just take a true commitment to organizing.

To be clear, that does not even get us to a win. It just brings our DPI up to the 44-46% range, so that a creditable candidate is even in striking distance. Top of the ballot or further down, either way, this step is important.

"But when I mention a down ballot race, it's like that's just absurd. You need to follow the track of how Republicans turned the statewides around for their favor."

Actually its pretty clear that before the republicans won a statewide race, they spent a lot of time and money winning at the local level, county wide races, etc. They spent a lot of time on a strategy that worked even before they won a statewide race. We can work that strategy or we can come up with our own new strategy.

"This is what frustrates me about the TDP. There is no real strategy. Just a bunch of people nostalgic for the good old days and idealistic that voters are just going to wake up and vote Democratic ("we just need to talk to them"). I'm not throwing in the towel. I'm just saying we're not even in the game to throw a towel in."

I understand your point, and to a degree its true. In general the strategy was a talk to them with a magic message and they will vote democratic again, plan. However the people they were talking about were/are anglo voters in swing precinct in swing house district and rural voters. Most of them with a heavy republican voting history. But the theory was / is some model plus some message means that one time, for that one race, we could make them vote Democratic again.

Clearly that is not the future of the party. Its not a strategy to build a base. I do believe there is movement towards talking to the right people with the new leadership of the party, the methods however are still debatable. Its not clear people in Texas want to to do what the Democratic party does in FL, OH, NV, NM among many other states and run an organizer based system.

I am not against trying to win a down ballot race. No matter what race we win, the time we turn the map blue it will be a victory for everyone who has worked so hard. It will prove what people think is impossible is possible. It will set the stage for bigger and harder fights in the future. But that loser monkey on our collective backs will be gone.

However I am not for writing off the entire Governors race because some dude from SA says we are not even in the game. Sorry brother, we are in the game, lets try to win one huh?

I firmly believe that if we begin the process of organizing a statewide coordinated campaign, begin a real investment in an organizer based strategy, target less than likely voters in under preforming high DPI precincts (majority of which are in safe house districts) and do it before Oct of an election year, we really would be running a new strategy based on doing something you think is impossible, increasing our turnout dramatically is base precincts. Why has it not worked so far? Because we have not done it.

But heck, I still might be drunk on the post convention kool-aid.

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by: JD Gins @ Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 00:43:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's my simplistic synthesis (3.00 / 1)

But I think for argument's sake, it works.  We split the baby with Howard Dean's "run everywhere" exhortation.  You run candidates in down ballot and local races to build the bench, the local infrastructure, building the Democratic narrative at the local level, etc.  At the same time, you still run candidates and commit yourself to contesting every statewide race, so you don't cede ground or the messaging framework while you're waiting for your down ballots to mature, accumulate years in office, etc.  You keep voters used to seeing a D line on every race.  You make the Rs have to spend at least a little money and fight on every race.  And you create a reason for a statewide coordinated.

I think y'all are actually a lot closer to each other than you think.  On voter outreach and turnout, I think you are both supporting the same strategy and criticizing the same older approach.  RBearSAT - JD didn't say just talk to the voters right, and they'll start to vote Democratic.  JD said, "In general the strategy was a talk to them with a magic message and they will vote democratic again, plan. However the people they were talking about were/are anglo voters in swing precinct in swing house district and rural voters. Most of them with a heavy republican voting history. But the theory was / is some model plus some message means that one time, for that one race, we could make them vote Democratic again."  His point here is that we take voters and potential voters that are already with us extremely for granted, that we have NEVER really tried to turn out these new and old base voters, and that we have traditionally piled our resources into communicating that "magic message" to a narrow slice of supposedly swingable "independent" (but really Republican) voters in mostly suburban and rural districts.  We target ourselves into oblivion, as many have said before, and don't even bother with the rest.  We run every race as if we only had the months of that cycle to prepare - there is never any investment in long term growth - cultivating the base voters who are already with us, but can also provide energy, money, labor, ideas, and talking to those who have never participated, and yes, even some of those folks who have always voted against us.  He was talking about a comprehensive outreach and turnout strategy with major Democratic constituencies that we seemed to have been content ignoring in favor of these magical swing Hutchinson voters (and frankly, we never really even bothered to start talking to some of them - we just happen to get their votes, when they vote).

The reality is that the strategies for base building, Hispanic turnout, growing the diversity of the voting bloc, etc. have already been put to effective use by the new organizing models created through Dean and Obama, and used effectively by groups in Nevada, Virginia, California, Colorado, etc.  The reality is that Texas Democrats are the ones that have been lousy at turning out (and frankly, I still think registration is a major problem in heavily minority areas) Hispanics and others, not Democrats generally.  We've never really tried dropping big money into field, rather than TV and mail.  We've never really tried building a Hispanic turnout machine two to four years before a statewide election.  It's always what can we do to just try to swing enough voters to win this one election for this one office, as JD said.

My only other point is that I think people are taking KT's thought experiment here a little too seriously.  KT is an experienced campaign professional - I think he knows the underlying data and contours of our state very well.  But there is still a lot of value in this kind of blue sky musing about possible scenarios, as I believe this type of thinking can reveal potential strategies that don't always emerge when thinking only within very tight, "real world" constraints.  It is the very tendency to get bogged down in the latter type of thinking that I believe drove the party to think so narrowly about winning back offices in the first place.  "This is the hand we were dealt, so we just have to take what limited resources we have and hope we can get John Sharp over the line with a few thousand more moderate Republicans."  As Garek said in DS9, "[I]ndulging in fantasy can keep one's mind creative."

"In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H.L. Mencken

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by: PI Lawyer @ Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 04:25:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah Garak (0.00 / 0)

You knew how to close that comment ever so perfectly.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 17:18:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From now on, talk to my Lawyer. (0.00 / 0)

"The reality is that Texas Democrats are the ones that have been lousy at turning out (and frankly, I still think registration is a major problem in heavily minority areas) Hispanics and others, not Democrats generally.  We've never really tried dropping big money into field, rather than TV and mail.  We've never really tried building a Hispanic turnout machine two to four years before a statewide election.  It's always what can we do to just try to swing enough voters to win this one election for this one office."

I think this is spot on. Its clear everyone wants to blame the voters, but I blame the collective strategy. We just need to actually invest in the infrastructure. And given how big the state is, that is pricey. But when you add up cycle after cycle of not doing it, and what we waste starting from scratch every time it becomes much more cost effective.

Dont get me wrong on voter registration either. While I believe there is plenty of voters already registered but not voting in the base precincts we need to work, voter reg is one of the most effective organizing tool we have. Getting into the neighborhood with an organized voter registration drive in the summer of 2013 is a great way to begin the process of building for GOTV in 2014.

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by: JD Gins @ Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 18:09:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fun Fact (actually a depressing one) (5.00 / 2)

Of the 26 particular safe / safest Democratic state House districts, only 6 turned out at a better rate than the state as a whole in 2008.

Only 3 of those 26 turned out better than average in 2010.  

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams

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by: Michael Hurta @ Mon Sep 17, 2012 at 05:34:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Different paths (0.00 / 0)

We can (and do) disagree about the likelihood of this or that scenario for electing Democrats, but it sounds like we're mostly agreed on Things That Would Help:

1) Better voter registration and voter mobilization, especially in the Hispanic community. Getting Texas Hispanics to vote isn't the same as getting Hispanics in New York or California to vote. The communities here are much older (older than the state) and have their own habits and traditions. For a variety of reasons, Texas Hispanics turn out heavily in the primaries and weakly in the general election. Fixing that requires both a lot of effort from the party and a change in the local culture. Neither one by itself will be enough.

2) Electing a farm team. With no statewide wins in the last eon, we don't have experienced candidates for the top offices. Sometimes you can leapfrog into contention with appointed office or with a brilliant nationwide speech, but most of the time you can't.  We've got some great young stars in the Lege, but most of our congressional heroes are aging. (Joachim Castro is set to be an exception. We need more.) Our current congressmen are not going to be the ones carrying the ball 10 years from now.

3) Blocking and tackling. Running everywhere, registering everywhere, and making a strong case for Democratic values everywhere. That's how you get voters' attention.

4) Taking advantage of freak events. The usual path to higher office is through lower office, but every once in a while somebody does come in from nowhere, through a combination of luck and hard work. We need to push hard for our statewide candidates and hope that lightning strikes, even as we know that it probably won't.  

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by: LSadun @ Sat Sep 15, 2012 at 20:35:54 PM UTC