McCaul Forms Exploratory Committee for AG

I may have an announcement on that.... (1.00 / 1)

relatively soon.  

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by: McBlogger @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 21:00:37 PM CST

Maybe some real instead of emotional analysis is in order... (0.00 / 0)

This would be a run for a district that will be in place for two years, which has proven very difficult for a Democrat to win. Larry Joe Doherty ran a great campaign and did everything necessary to win in a very good year for Democrats. It just wasn't going to happen and most likely won't happen even if it's an open seat in 2010.  Furthermore, the lines will be redrawn in 2011 and no one knows what the congressional districts are going to look like after that. It would be insane for Mark Strama or any other sitting Democratic office holder to give up his or her seat to make such a foolish run.

We really need to try to learn our lessons from 2008 and decide if we need to be throwing millions of dollars away in these larger district contests where the lines were clearly drawn to elect Republicans.  Obviously, the larger the district, the harder it is to flip.  We've met with some clear success in the state House races but those districts are much smaller and demographic shifts can make a much bigger difference in a shorter period of time.  In three highly competitive larger district contests this past cycle - Doherty (Congress), Michael Skelly (Congress) and Chris Bell (State Senate) - we watched millions of dollars and thousands of volunteer hours spent on races that were most likely never going to be won regardless of what the candidates did or didn't do - it was simply Republican versus Democratic with a strong Republican advantage.

Obviously, if past results are showing a majority shift in a district, it's time to strike. But that's not the case in McCaul's district or most others and it's not asking much to just sit back and wait two years to see what the districts will look like in 2012 after they've been redrawn. That seems like a much smarter way to spend time and money.

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by: politicsforjim @ Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 07:14:27 AM CST

[ Parent ]

This is backwards (0.00 / 0)

You don't flip districts by waiting for them to change. You flip them by running hard, year after year, and getting folks used to hearing a Democratic message. Otherwise, the 60-40 Republican districts become 65-35 districts become 70-30 ... and their voters kill our chances of winning anything statewide.

I agree with you that the chances of winning this seat in 2010 are small, which means that none of the current office-holders will take the plunge. But sometimes you get lucky, and your opponent is found with a freezer full of cash. Maybe somebody young with little to lose will give it a shot. Maybe somebody retired with little to lose will give it a shot. If they do, we need to be ready to help them.

And if not, we need to find a civic-minded candidate like Ted Ankrum who can at least show the flag. Ceding a congressional seat without even giving Democratic voters somebody to vote for is almost criminal.  

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by: LSadun @ Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 17:02:20 PM CST

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GOP (0.00 / 0)

Who might be some Republicans likely to jump in the race?  Kolkhorst?  Who are the Dem state reps within CD-10?

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by: B-Dub @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 21:24:57 PM CST

If Dan Grant decides to run... (5.00 / 3)

I will put on my walking shoes and go door-to-door all over Northeast Austin to get him elected.  His experiences on the ground working for the international team in Iraq (and Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Kosovo) would give him a valuable perspective that Congress needs.  If Obama is going to clean up the Middle East mess that Bush has created, he needs the help of people like Dan who really understand what's happening on the ground.  

In addition to being qualified to run for Congress, Dan is a good friend and a good Democrat.  During the 2008 Travis County coordinated campaign, Dan worked hard to elect Democrats up and down the ballot.  He did everything from knocking on doors to organizing our Luci Baines Johnson rallies.  His selfless commitment to helping others shows that he doesn't just talk the talk, he walks the walk.

It's a complex and personal decision whether or not to seek public office, and Dan should do what's best for him and his family.  But that district is trending blue, and if he decides to run, he's got a good shot to be the second Democratic congressman from Travis County.

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by: Ian @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 21:38:20 PM CST

Northeast Austin, and then some (0.00 / 0)

I'll be right with you in Travis County, and Austin, Bastrop, Burleson, Lee, Waller, Washington, and Harris Counties, too.

We can capitalize on the Democratic gains in Harris County, and make better inroads in the Prairie View section of Waller.  The middle counties can't be ignored--there may not be tons of active Democrats out there, but the more we find, the better our chances.

McCaul is "moderate" enough that the centrist Rs won't shift to a Democrat, no matter how appealing and reasonable he/she might be.  In an open seat, it'll be a different game.  Staunchly conservative Rs tend to be the ones to survive the primary, and they won't fare as well in the General.

I hadn't really thought about this being a potentially open seat.  Hmmmmm.  Time to get out the popcorn (again).

Full Disclosure: Former Political Director for Lee Leffingwell for Mayor of Austin

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by: sccs @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 14:17:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

State Rep. Mark Strama? (0.00 / 0)

His district looks like it greatly intersects McCaul's.

Why not? Other than one of our best state legislators may be out of a job if he fails.

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by: trowaman @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 at 22:34:41 PM CST

Dan Grant (3.00 / 1)

To reflect upon what Ian said, I too would be very excited about Dan Grant getting in a race for this vacated seat. I have had the pleasure of getting to know Dan, and I would be a very excited supporter because I know Dan would run for congress for the right reasons. Its not often someone who has walked the walk actually lines up in a race like that.

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by: JD Gins @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 00:17:45 AM CST

First we need some analysis (0.00 / 0)

Did McCaul win last year win because he's (finally) built up some name recognition and support as an incumbent, or because the demographics in NW Harris County (rapidly increasing population, and very very red) allow a generic Republican to trounce a pretty good Dem?

If the number-crunching says the first, then a lot of people will jump at the open seat. If the second, then only somebody really rich or really ambitious will run in the hope that the Republicans nominate a really lame candidate (Ben Streusand, anyone?)

BTW, the Democratic state reps in the district are Donna Howard, Elliot Naishtat, Mark Strama, and Dawna Dukes. I don't know if any or all of them live in CD10, but their House districts all have a big overlap with CD10. Strama and Naishtat have the biggest, followed by Howard, with Dukes only having a sliver of CD10. I would be very surprised if any of them ran.

I'd like to see Larry Joe run again.  He was a much better candidate than I expected him to be, and he's learned a lot in the process. He'd run a strong race. Dan Grant would make a great congressman, but I think he's a weaker candidate than Larry Joe.  

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by: LSadun @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 01:35:00 AM CST

Those are only the Travis Dem Reps that might be in the district (0.00 / 0)

THere aren't any Dem reps that overlap in the rest of this giant district?

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by: Michael Hurta @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 14:09:13 PM CST

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I checked the map last night (0.00 / 0)

Nothing in the Rural stuff (although maybe we can recruit Bobby Cook).

In Harris, Hubert Vo overlaps. This is a non starter. I think Thiabaut's BARELY had a handful of precinct's but this is a person who hasn't even been sworn in yet and we're talking about 20% of their small state house district. Again, no go.

Naishtat is good, but this is not Minnesota where we'll have two candidates claiming to be the least New York Jew. Howard has very little overlap. Dawna Dukes won't play.

For sitting members, it's Strama or bust. Cook is an option for a retired member.

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by: trowaman @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 16:42:26 PM CST

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Watson? (0.00 / 0)

I wonder if Kirk Watson would be interested?  I was thinking of Robby Cook too, but for some reason I think he lives in Colorado County, but the rest of his old state house district overlaps CD-10.

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by: B-Dub @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 18:43:20 PM CST

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Travis County members in cd 10 (0.00 / 0)

I think Watson wants a statewide seat.  Strama lives in Lamar Smith's district. Naishtat, Dukes and D. Howard live in CD 10.  I am not sure if any of them would be interested in running for U.S. Congress.

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by: AnnElaine @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 14:42:07 PM CST

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Looking to 2012 (0.00 / 0)

It will be important to run a Dem for this seat if it is open in 2010.  The real objective, though, is drawing fair boundaries for the district for the 2012 election.

The Huffington Post featured a clip of McCaul's family from the swearing-in ceremonies in Congress this week where he was identified as being from "Austin, Tomball."  I don't think that I've ever seen another representative identified as being from two places before.  Ain't gerrymandering grand?

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by: Jeb @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 10:42:28 AM CST

CD 10 is tough (0.00 / 0)

I've covered every CD 10 race since the re-redistricting. As I just noted over on our Newsdesk blog, this district might just be impossible. LJD had like 15 or 20 times the budget of Ankrum (and Obama's breeze at his back) and only made a 3% improvement. And the candidate will need to be even richer (or even better at fundraising). LJD told me that despite the million he raised, he needed another million to crack the Houston media market.

Too weird to be a Texan, too Texan to live anywhere else.

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by: ernesttubb @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 at 13:27:11 PM CST

that's the thing... (1.00 / 1)

there wasn't a breeze for Obama in the district, it was a stiff headwind. Sorry, but outside of the Travis County part of the district, Obama drove turnout on the other side.  

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by: McBlogger @ Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 14:25:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Has somebody done the analysis? (0.00 / 0)

How did Obama do compared to Kerry in the non-Travis part of the district?

Also, don't forget the changing demographics. The biggest change from 2004 to now is that the Harris County part of the district has grown from 35% of the vote to 45% of the vote. That's a lot of extra Republican voters, and LJD's Travis-centered campaign never reached them.  

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by: LSadun @ Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 17:07:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

We need a very strong candidate to run against McCaul for AG (0.00 / 0)

I 1st reported that McCaul might be running for AG many months ago, and I blogged about it on BOR on Nov. 26th, 08' shortly after we saw McCaul at Jim Mattox's funeral.

http://www.burntorangereport.c...

McCaul will be a tough candidate.  This is why:

Prior to coming to Congress, Michael McCaul served as Chief of Counter Terrorism and National Security in the U.S. Attorney's office in Texas, and led the Joint Terrorism Task Force charged with detecting, deterring and preventing terrorist activity. Congressman McCaul also served as Texas Deputy Attorney General under current U.S. Senator John Cornyn, and served as a federal prosecutor in the Department of Justice's Public Integrity Section in Washington, D.C.

Again, Democrats must have a very powerful candidate to run against McCaul.

Who do y'all feel is the best candidate to run against McCaul?  I understand Barbara Ann Radnofsky is still looking to run, and I've heard from unofficial sources that Patrick Rose might be interested.  

Best,
David

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by: CleanAir @ Sun Jan 11, 2009 at 19:47:27 PM CST

McCaul will be very hard to beat as AG (0.00 / 0)

He's much more qualified to be Texas AG than to be a congressman, and law enforcement is an area where voters traditionally trust Republicans more than Democrats. Patrick Rose, who is far better qualified to legislate than be AG, has little to counter that. (I'd much prefer Rose to McCaul as AG, of course, but I can't see it happening.)

Radnofsky at least has a state-wide network and a Houston fundraising base to build a run on.  

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by: LSadun @ Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 17:21:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]