| I'm a numbers nerd so pardon me for getting all excited about presenting you with some numbers on the early vote for the Austin City Council races.
Keep in mind the following caveats
A) this doesn't include the Austin voters in Williamson county,
B) it undercounts African Americans because they are more difficult to code in the voter file,
C) it doesn't count new voters registered since April 1st (which are few in this election anyways), and
D) were comparing 2008 Early vote to the 2006 Total vote.
Also, the 2006 City of Austin (COA) was when Will Wynn, Mike Martinez, Sheryl Cole, and Brewster McCracken were elected.
2008 Early Vote 2006 Total Voters
Total COA 14949 52073
65+ 4560 30.5% 11837 22.7%
<25 404 2.7% 1475 2.8%
Dem History 10290 68.8% 22600 43.4%
Rep History 2235 15.0% 11810 22.7%
Mixed/None 2424 16.2% 17663 33.9%
3/3 City 5994 40.1% 11138 21.4%
2/3 City 3261 21.8% 14893 28.6%
1/3 City 2396 16.0% 13510 25.9%
Older City 705 4.7% 2901 5.6%
No City 2593 17.3% 9631 18.5%
Male 6831 49.1% 24379 50.4%
Female 7093 50.9% 24037 49.6%
White 13460 90.0% 46774 89.8%
Black 348 2.3% 1444 2.8%
Hispanic 863 5.8% 3038 5.8%
Asian 278 1.9% 817 1.6%
HD 46 (Dukes) 1324 8.9% 5040 9.7%
HD 47 (Bolton) 2945 19.7% 10137 19.5%
HD 48 (Howard) 3401 22.8% 11745 22.6%
HD 49 (Naisht.) 4063 27.2% 13733 26.4%
HD 50 (Strama) 1977 13.2% 7761 14.9%
HD 51 (Rodrig.) 1239 8.3% 3657 7.0%
It's my guess that the percentages in the "previously voted in a city election" categories will even out Saturday as the 3/3C's are the people more likely to vote early. The demographic data is spot on (which says alot about how little minority turnout is driven in the election where the "black and brown" seats are chosen).
Older voter may have a slight tendency to vote early, but I'm guessing they will be a larger chunk this year. The vote seems more Democratic as well though if partisan history is tied to city election voting frequency, we could see that drop as well on Saturday. But it's quite a bit higher so that may benefit Cravey/Morrison in Place 4. |
