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Old vs new CD10s (3.00 / 2)
CD10 is temporarily competitive. Half of the Harris County anchor of the current CD10 was removed by the court, as the district was way overpopulated. That means that we have a decent chance of winning the district in 2012 and sending McCaul into retirement.  Not a great chance, but a decent chance.

However, McCaul does not need to introduce himself to a lot of new constituents. His new territory in Milam and Burleson Counties is lightly populated. Almost all of his other constituents are already in CD10. Mostly he needs to mobilize what remains of his NE Harris County base and hope that there isn't a Democratic tide.

If the map stays around for more than two years, the seat is likely to go back to the Republicans (unless we elect a Dem in 2012 who really endears himself to the voters). The fastest-growing part of the district is in Harris County, and that's also the most conservative part of the district. In other words, if somebody really charismatic like Mark Strama ran and won, he could probably hold the seat. Dan Grant would be an excellent congressman, but he'd probably only survive one term.

McCaul has been a party-line voter on most issues since 2004. He doesn't have any personal legislative triumphs, but the only legislative disasters that we can pin on him are the same as every other Texas Republican out there. He's as close to being a generic conservative Republican as you can get.  

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Burnt Orange Reporters
Editor and Publisher:
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