November 08, 2005
Prop 2 Turnout Data
By Karl-Thomas Musselman
I've managed to get ahold of some expanded information on Early Voting numbers beyond the top 15 counties.
Expanded Early Returns (excel)
Trend Chart (excel)
The latter shows something that I wasn't really expecting, which is how much Houston turnout may actually affect the statewide vote. On the last day of early voting, Harris County made a huge bounce and cast over 25,000 votes alone as evident on the "Trend" tab chart. In fact, the top 5 counties (including Dallas and Travis county where Prop 2 is expected to fail) are clearly separated from the rest of the Top 15 pack in that last day turnout bounce.
Posted by Karl-Thomas Musselman at November 8, 2005 02:30 AM
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Bad trend chart. All it really shows is that the biggest county had the most voters.
If you graph each county's percentage of total votes day by day, you see that Harris' next to last day percentage was below average, and Harris' last day was high, but not its highest percent of total. Taken together, five other counties had higher 'last two day' surges.
So, yeah, the biggest county will indeed influence the statewide vote.
This one is hard to guess because it's an off-year election. The strategy I've heard for defeating prop 2 is that Travis County will offset the rest of the state (less Dallas and Harris counties).
As Dallas and Harris go on Prop 2, so goes Texas.
If there were a goober-natorial or preznit election, #2 would surely pass, but this year it's all about which side can get the voters to the polls.
I have no idea where this one is going. No outcome will surprise me. If I had to guess, I'd say #2 passes by a small margin, but I'm doing my best to prevent that.
