Polling on Prop 2
By Karl-Thomas Musselman
BlogHouston thinks that if students vote their beliefs on Prop 2 they will vote for it. Considering my generation is one of the demographics that outright favors same-sex marriage, I find that hard to believe. I find it even harder in light of recent UT polling data. Here are some of the early numbers from the UT Student Government Survey on Prop 2. Sample so far, 1,236 students have responded.
Below it is the FOR/AGAINST numbers for Prop 2 when you start looking at responses from just registered voters and then registered voters who plan to actually vote. They get better in each step and I've pulled this info specifically here:
All Students: FOR-22% / AGAINST-65%
Registered: FOR-22% / AGAINST-68%
Registered & Plan to vote (Likely Voters): FOR-20% / AGAINST-75%
If this poll holds true (it is a poll) we could see around 60% student turnout overall, though some of those votes will show up in other counties back home. And may I point out that UT-Austin has cast more votes than all of El Paso.
These 3 questions contain the raw data, below that are sub-samples. Margin of Error is ± 2.7%.
1) Are you currently registered to vote in Texas?
No answer 20 1.62%
Yes (Y) 903 73.06%
No (N) 313 25.32%
2) Do you plan to vote in the Texas Constitutional Amendment Election to be held on November 8th?
No answer 131 10.60%
Yes (Y) 589 47.65%
No (N) 516 41.75%
3) If passed in the November referendum, Texas Constitutional Amendment 2 would restrict the definition of marriage to that of one man and one woman, banning the state's recognition or establishment of same-sex domestic partnerships, civil unions, and marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote FOR or AGAINST Constitutional Amendment 2?
No answer 159 12.86%
For (1) 277 22.41%
Against (2) 800 64.72%
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Responses from those saying they are Registered in Texas (73% of students)
1. Plan to vote
* 64% plan to vote
* 26% do not plan to vote
* 10% no response
2. Prop 2
* 22% for
* 68% against
* 10% no response
Responses from those saying they are Registered & plan to vote (46.4% of students)
1. Prop 2
* 20% for
* 75% against
* 5% no response
-From Regina Dombkowski and Chris Kennedy of the SG Survey Research Agency
Posted by Karl-Thomas Musselman at October 30, 2005 02:47 PM
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