Burnt Orange Report

Baseball Blogging 2005

By Andrew Dobbs

As Hurricane Rita threatens to obliterate half of Texas, I thought that a bit of light-hearted fare would be nice today, so I bring you BOR Baseball. One year ago yesterday I put up a post about my predictions for the end of the season. I predicted Boston in the AL (not even a sure bet at the time), St. Louis in the NL (an easy one) and several other things I was wrong about (like Chicago getting the NL wild card and the Cards winning the series). Still, I love writing about baseball, so here are my thoughts as the season comes towards a close.

The National League is essentially locked up this year. Just a few weeks ago it looked like another free-for-all was to be had with San Francisco gaining serious ground on San Diego in the dismal NL West and several teams clawing their way to a wild card spot. There is still room for some chaos, but every division except for the West is knotted up and next week’s four game series between the Giants and the Padres should decide who gets to be violated by St. Louis in the first round. San Diego could actually have a losing record for the last 11 games of the season and still beat out the surging Giants if they simply win two of the four games at home against San Francisco and only lose three other games. I think that the Padres will pull it out and be dominated by St. Louis in the NLDS.

There are a lot of Houston fans around here, and they have reason to worry. They are two games up in the wild card race, a respectable lead. However, they close out the season with one more game against Pittsburgh, seven games against the Cubs and two in St. Louis. Philly plays one more against Atlanta, then series against Cincinnati, New York and Washington. Houston’s magic number is nine, so assuming they can beat the Pirates today, break just better than even against the Cubs and drop both games to the Cards at Busch Stadium they’ll be 5-5 for the rest of the season. Philly just has to lose four games, which I think is probable. Houston has been playing lights out ball lately, but Philadelphia isn’t too bad either. Still, I think the Astros are going back to the playoffs.

The division leaders in the East and Central are easy—Atlanta (for the 14th year in a row) and St. Louis (who has already locked in a spot) respectively. Houston will start out against Atlanta, a series that will be tough for both teams. However, I see the resurgent Braves with MVP candidate Andruw Jones taking the ‘Stros. St. Louis will manhandle the Padres or the Giants and I think that the pennant belongs to them again. They are too good a baseball team not to be in the Series.

The NL is boring this year, though. I just took three paragraphs to say what everybody knows: St. Louis wins. The AL is where the action is at, as every single division is up in the air and the wild card is also still in flux.

If the Indians can keep their act up and steal the Central from the team who’s had it since April—the Chicago White Sox—then Chicago will be the Wild Card team. This seems to be a real possibility, as Cleveland gets to face off against cellar dwellers in Kansas City and Tampa Bay and then a three game series against Chicago at home. The White Sox, on the other hand, play four games against Minnesota at home and then travel to Detroit for four games before the road trip to Cleveland. If Chicago breaks even against the Twins (a pretty steep order, in fact) and wins three of four against Detroit (shouldn’t be a problem), and Cleveland can simply win their series against KC and the Devil Rays (those are two teams, not a 70s cover band), the three game series will be the deciding factor. Chicago will HAVE to win two of three to win the division. This would be very difficult on the road against a surging Cleveland team. To be honest, I think that Cleveland wins the Central and Chicago settles for the AL Wild Card.

In the West, the gap between one and two is the same, but the Angels are doing better right now than the White Sox and the A’s aren’t as good as the Indians. The Angels get four more games against Texas (one in Anaheim, three in Arlington), three at home versus Tampa Bay and four in Oakland. Oakland gets three at home versus Texas, three in Seattle and that four game series at home versus Anaheim. As long as Oakland wins both of its series against Texas and Seattle and the Angels don’t sweep both Texas and Tampa Bay, the four game series will be the decider. Oakland will need to win at least three games, and possibly all four to have a shot at the playoffs. I think the order is a little steep for Oakland, and while they might still pull it off, I think this division is Anaheim’s for the taking.

Now we come to my division—the East. I am a fan of the Boston Red Sox, and by extension an enemy of all things Yankee. Last night was a bad night. Boston got beat by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the eighth inning while New York eked one out against Baltimore, putting the Yanks atop the division for the first time in two months. Their lead is only a half game, and the season ends with a three game series between the two teams in Boston. As long as Boston can keep the distance between the two a game or less, Boston should be able to take the division, as Fenway is their saving grace. Guys who play for the Sox know that stadium; they know how to win there. New York plays five games against Baltimore (1 at home, four on the road) and three against Toronto in the Bronx. Boston gets three at Baltimore and four versus Toronto. It’s a steep order for Boston, but I think they can do it. Right now, I’d say it is up in the air. New York is playing great baseball, but Boston has tough players. In the end, I’m going to cautiously (and optimistically) choose Boston for the East. I think that the odds of New York pulling away by more than a game or a game and a half and then winning more than one game at Fenway are less than Boston’s keeping up and then taking them out behind the Green Monster.

Boston, Cleveland, Chicago and Anaheim are now in the playoffs. Boston plays Chicago and Cleveland gets Anaheim. I think that Boston’s home field advantage plays well for them, but Chicago’s superior pitching will make that division series tough. Boston went 4-3 in the series this season, hardly a dominating performance. All the stats point to a very even match up, but pitching rules. As much as it kills me to say it, I think that Chicago edges out Boston in the ALDS. Anaheim versus Cleveland will be another tough one, but Cleveland had momentum and better stats almost across the board. I think Cleveland edges them out. The ALCS versus Cleveland and Chicago will be a good one, it will be a tough one, but in the end I think Chicago will edge out the Indians. Better pitching as well as the confidence and momentum from beating out the Red Sox at home should be enough.

The World Series? Easy—St. Louis beats Chicago soundly and finally gets the Championship it deserves. I love writing about this stuff, and hope y’all all get a chance to watch the phenomenal baseball that is going to be on for the next few weeks.