Burnt Orange Report

Starting this early shows that Andy Brown knows what he is doing. He will win this race.

Donna Howard is going to run and she will be the Democratic nominee.

Donna has paid her dues by being the nominee for State Board of Education and she has experience as an elected official. She also has the maturity needed.

This is also the old seat of Sherri Greenberg, Ann Kitchen and Sarah Weddington. There are currently no white female Democrats in the Texas House and Donna will help end that travesty.

Let's keep the Ann Kitchen - Sherri Greenberg - Mary Jane Bode - Sarah Weddington - Ann Richards tradition alive by nominating and electing Donna Howard as State Representative!

Have you been in touch with her or campaign people that will be behind her? I remember her when she ran in the SBOE seat in 2002 which included my hometown of Fredericksburg at the time. If you have any actual info on this I'd be very interested. She's also on the Step Up Texas page but there is no one else there behind here so I didn't know what to make of it.

District 48 has changed a lot since Kitchen, Greenberg and Weddington represented it so well in the state House.

It has gone from being a Democratic stronghold to, post 2001 redistricting, a GOP leaning swing district.

Ann Kitchen, a great Democrat and an expert on healthcare issues, was beaten even as an incumbent in 2002.

To win HD48, we need a candidate who can appeal to a broader base of people. Andy Brown can do that best

Ann Kitchen lost in 2002 for the same reason other incumbent Ds did: Republicans spent million of illegal corporate dollars to beat them. Kitchen's opponent, now the incumbent, even pocketed $35K in illegally laundered cash. I don't know who will be the Democratic nominee -- Andy Brown or Donna Howard -- but they won't face te barrage of illegal funds Kitchens did.

Frank,

While that contributed to it, the main reason was that the district changed and it went from safe Dem to a GOP toss up.

It's absurd to call District 48 a "Republican leaning" district. Kelly White lost by a mere 147 votes. Todd axter has the smallest margin of victory for any returning Republican. This district is the biggest toss-up in the state of Texas.

What information on Donna Howard can anyone provide? I've only heard rumors- nothing subtantial.

Jeff,

You took those words out of context completely. What I said was "GOP leaning swing district." And that's exactly what HD48 is. Its not a 50-50 district. Its about 54% GOP. Now tell me how GOP leaning swing district is an absurd description of it again?

David,

Are you using 2002 numbers or 2004 numbers?

I was kind of averaging them together. The statwide index in 02 was 57.9% and, from what I remember, didnt Bush win with about 52 or 53% in the district?

Yeah, something like that. Kerry did better than expected, though- particularly in Northwest Hills. Strictly speaking, you're probably right about the district as a whole, at least in terms of the statistics. But it's mostly moderate Republicans (the district actually polls pro-choice, for example) and the trend is certainly in our favor.

Whatever the overall numbers, though, in terms of the state legislative seat, it really is a toss-up. A lot of Republicans don't like Baxter- in every single precinct there was a subtantial block which voted Bush for Prez and Kelly White for state rep. I was on Kelly's staff, and we met large numbers of people who said, "I'm a loyal Republican, but I can't stand that guy."

Plus, District 48 is a strong public school district. Baxter's votes have raised quite a few eyebrows on that score.

Jeff,

I definitely agree with you. The demographics may say that it is a 55% or so GOP district, but with the failures of the Republicans in TX and Baxter's ethics problems, this SHOULD BE a Democratic seat.