Burnt Orange Report

We had some fliers at DemFest for our "Texas Progressive Political Blog Directory" (we really need a shorter name!) It is setup on the Lone Star Democracy website at http://www.lonestardemocracy.org/directory.htm. We should have an online form in place for new entries soon, as well as some tools to make using the directory easier.

Most excellent. I heard about this project over the weekend but never got the name down. Thanks for the link!

I asked this a little earlier but it received no response, so I thought I'd ask it again considering you say: "One of the biggest personal projects this weekend" in regards to the John Courage campaign.

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As someone who now lives in CD21, can someone please explain to me why John Courage is "one of the most popular and sought after candidates"?

After looking at the CD21 vote totals, in which Lamar Smith captured 61% in 2004 and 72% to John Courage's measley 25% in 2002 -- why would anyone be excited to talk to him?!?

Could someone please enlighten me?

Matthew - The short answer is that CD21 is very different now than it was in 2002. Lamar Smith got 61% against a perennial candidate in 2004, and nearly lost Travis County. This is a winnable seat, and Courage has experience and a good message.

Well, it's obvious that the district became more Democratic after redistricting (much like Delay's) but Smith *still* received 61% of the vote -- that's a landslide.

And why is it that of Travis Co. straight ticket voters, Democrats earned 57%, John Kerry took 56%, Dems swept the county-wide races, and yet, Lamar Smith still won Travis County? This makes no sense to me; true, he barely won it -- but the fact is, he did "well" considering the "Democratic tide" in Travis county last year.

All I am getting at, I suppose, is I'm tired of the "pie in the sky" dreams of some Texas Democrats -- like those who think Kay Bailey is beatable.

It seems to me, that if Smith pulls 61% and even wins the Democratic bastion of Travis Co. (where he outperformed Bush by 8 points) in a great year for Travis Co. Democrats, there is no way we can even come close to beating him in 2006.

So, convince me I'm wrong and that I should invest time in this race! :-)

On second thought, saying Smith outperformed Bush is really not fair. Smith didn't run in all of Travis County, Bush did -- so you can't really compare the numbers.

Sorry for upsetting you with our "pie in the sky" message, I suppose defeatism and forfeiting seats would be better in your opinion...

Anyways, is John Courage likely to win this seat? Probably not. I like the guy and I'll do what I can to help, but it will be an uphill battle. But making Lamar Smith work his ass off for 54% and eating up a bunch of his money would sure be nice. And Lamar Smith got 61% of the vote against a certifiable nut job-- Rhett Smith, a perennial candidate and security guard who I first met when he was running for President of the United States (no shit). It'd be like saying "Well, Lyndon LaRouche only got 39% of the vote, so he must not have done very well." For a whackjob, Rhett Smith did rather well.

John Courage is no whack job. If he can pick up 12% of the vote-- or about 1 in 5 Lamar Smith voters-- he wins. The guy works as hard as anybody you've ever seen, is a phenomenal public speaker, as a teacher he has education experience, as a veteran he can stand his ground on defense issues and Lamar Smith is now definitively associated with some pretty shady business (DeLay etc.). Courage will put up a fight and he will have enough credibility to do well.

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but we're not going to concede before any races have begun. We can beat Kay Bailey Hutchison, Rick Perry, Tom DeLay and the rest of them. It is just a matter of having the right vision and working our asses off. It is a lot easier to denounce the work of others as "pie in the sky," but if you want to get off your can and stop being a coward, I'm sure some of us hopeless optimists can find a place for you.

Matthew pledges his support for Courage.

...and as do I. Granted Smith might hold on to his seat, but at least he will have had to work for it. He really does not do much and thus he should have to work to keep his seat if he wants it.

I am aganist people just being re-elected, especially when they dont do much. If you want my vote, you had better work for it - ive seen a lack of that from Lamar Smith. I bet Courage would love to have it.

I really have to agree with Andrew here. The only way the Dems can really lose is to assume an attitude of defeatism and make people wonder if there really is a Democratic Party in Texas anymore. As a former member of their staff, I can answer in the affirmative, "Yes, Virginia, there really are Democrats in Texas". And the likes of Lamar Smith, Kay Bailey, Perry, et al, had better get ready, for while we may not win every race, we are going to force the Republicans to actually get out and work, all the while spending money.

I have met John Courage and found him sincere and dedicated. He ran for office in 2002, and he will probably use that experience to run a better, more effective campaign.

We cannot have an attitude of "why bother?" It has to be an attitude of "Why not bother?"

I am glad to hear that John Courage will be running. I know that there are people throughout his district that are committed to working for him.

In a presentation at Democracy Fest this weekend, a speaker provided statistics showing that in the elections of 2000-2004 underchallenged Republicans, those with no or only token opposition, raised $267 million. They then transfered $63 million of that money to challenged Republicans. Putting Smith into a competitive race will force the Rs to spend money on his race and will prevent him from transfering money to other Republican races.

Thanks for all the comments guys. I'll be making a separate post about John and his district soon to address some of the concerns that Matthew has had specifically. CD 21 doesn't include all of Travis County, just half of it, so one would have to compare the Smith v Smith contest to up and down the ballot resutls for that region.

Also, Jeb, I thought that your name seemed familiar when you said hi this weekend. I always have to laugh a bit when I'm more familiar people based upon their blog name than their real one. Had you said Monkey Brained Musings, I probably would have clicked a lot sooner. Sorry if I seemed stand offish.

I think John Courage is the kind of candidate we need in CD21: a real person who cares about the district and is serious about running. I was supposed to volunteer for Mr. Courage at DemFest, but I was unable to make it at the last minute. Karl-T, if any volunteering is needed, just email me.

Hmm...thanks for being so nice about it, Andrew.

No where did I say Texas Democrats must lay down and die and just declare defeat before a race even starts. No where did I say "why bother" when it comes to Democrats opposing Republicans. No where. In fact, what I did say (ask for) were reasons for me to seriously look at this race.

Also, I knew nothing about Rhett Smith -- thanks for educating me in such a nice, civil manner -- it means a lot (gag).

Ya know, attitudes like Andrew's are why I stayed away from blogs in the first place, I found them to be places where one is jumped upon for even thinking of questioning something. But, then I moved to Austin, and I am a friend of Byron's, and I wanted to learn more about Austin politics, and I found BOR to be the best source of information, and I check it regularly.

In response to Andrew's "get off your can and stop being a coward" remark - ha! what gall! You don't know what I've done in the past, and currently, to help elect Democrats. As I've mentioned previously, I worked for Max Sandlin for 2 years, worked my a$$ for him in 2004, believed he had the right vision (the two qualities you state are needed) and guess what! He still lost!

Now Andrew, you could have responded like Jeb did. Tasteful and informative. He pointed out a darn good reason to have a Democratic candidate for CD21 and, gasp -- he did it without sacarcasm or presumption.

Or Andrew could have responded like Karl-T did; Karl-T thank you (seriously) for the nice response to my questions. I look forward to your post on the race and I *really* do appreciate the way you handled yourself in your response, I for one am also sick of self rightous Democrats slamming anyone who is trying to get information on a race/district that doesn't look like we have a true shot at winning.