Burnt Orange Report

In the San Antonio elections, I think it's almost guaranteed that the runoff will be between Castro and Hardberger. Schubert had been lagging behind all Spring, even with conservative voters. Although, he may have made a late run in the polls...I haven't been following as closely the last week or so.

I think it's almost guaranteed that the runoff will be between Castro and Hardberger. Schubert, the Republican, hasn't been getting much support, even from conservatives. Although, he may have made a late run in the polls...I haven't been following as much in the last week or so.

Also, I heard a rumor that the Daily Show was sending a correspondent down to cover the Castro twins. I'm guessing they're going to do a piece on the infamous swapout at the River Parade.

Sorry for the double post. Err..triple post now.

I think Kim will have a better showing than you think... but we'll see.

I will more or less be covering the Waco mayoral election to fill the term left by the death of Mae Jackson. I will be at the Waco Trib pulling an extra shift in sports, but I sit next to the City Editors so when they hear something, so do I. Check Common Sense early, check it often.

I'll keep everyone updated on that race, and the ballot measure in my hometown, McGregor, over whether to sale alcohol for off-premises consumption passes.

I agree with most predictions, but I think Gregg Knaupe will get less than Jennifer Kim, and Mandy and Margot's tallies will be closer together. As far as I'm concerned, Knaupe is dead in the water, and it's an estrogenical sprint to the run-off.

In Dallas, I think strong mayor will pass, but it will be close to the margins that the area received. 50.2-49.8 wouldn't surprise me. Marcum in the 14th should escape a run-off, but i wouldn't be surprised if Hunt was in it. Medrano should win in the 2nd.
If Finkelman and Greyson were not term limited, then I would say that strong mayor would fail.

I meant to say AAC arena vote.

Yeah I'll be closely watching 2 and 14 in Dallas. I agree that Medrano should win 2. In 14, I'd be surprised if Marcum escapes a run-off, but I expect her to lead the pack. Either Marcum or Hunt would be good, but Marcum is more experienced - both are Democrats. How well do you think the Republican Kathy Ingle will do in 14?

Knaupe was a huge disappointment. He clearly catered his campagin to the business and republican communities in spite of the initial Democratic endorsements.

Is getting a medical school to Austin really enough of an issue to run on?

But.. his campaign has been run by his wife's company, Public Strategies...

Knaupe is such a closet Republican, he jumped at the opportunity to mention homeland security and terrorism at two forums I went to on a subjct that clearly had nothing to do with either one, and he's very much on the business side of issues such as the smoking ban. Granted, the smoking ban is seen by some to be overkill, but from Knaupe's quotes, he seems to be objecting to the overall concept.

I'm working the phones today for Mandy Dealey and I'm hearing from our field people that a LOT of people are showing up at polling places just to vote against the smoking ban and nothing else. It will fail. I'd put money on it.

my endorsements at http://www.matthardigree.com/blog

Knaupe is going to lead. He's the only candidate that ran a grassroots campaign and he's the only candidate that ran a citywide campaign.

All the polls show him up anyways.

One thing about Jennifer Kim - and one reason why Place 3 is so hard to gauge - is because I have absolutely no idea how well television ads work in a low-turn out city election. Kim's ads have effectively introduced her to much of greater Austin, but I'm unsure how effective it is to spend tens of thousands of dollars on ads. The Knaupe and Dealey campaigns would likely argue that spending money on GOTV resources (phone banks, canvassing, etc) is a more effective use of resources. We shall see in a few hours...

I voted Yes on the Strong Mayor proposal for Dallas. A strong mayor allows for a better organized city and a better understanding on the part of voters as to what a "mayor" can and can't do. When a city votes for an at-large representative, that rep should be empowered to act at-large and then held accountable in the next election. It simply makes zero sense to elect a mayor who has little more than symbolic power. That sets up the office to be ineffective, which breeds voter frustration and ultimately apathy.

Knaupe is going to lead in Place 3. Probably followed by Margot Clarke.

Its hard to say, but I think the smoking ban will pass.

What is he going to lead in, David?

Knaupe was only going to use the City Council position as a springboard to the U.S. Congress.

Isn't it great that the Austin votes can see through that?

Yeah, Knappster didn't quite cut it..

Well, where is that money your betting Andrew? :)