Burnt Orange Report

State House Targeting - 2006

By Byron LaMasters

Kuff and Tejano Politico are looking at target lists for 2006 already. It's never too early to start talking, and recruiting candidates. Politico's List is a bit ambitious, however, and also leaves off some races that should be targeted. Politico says that this should be the Dem target list:

State Rep. Joe Nixon, State Rep. Kent Grusendorf, State Rep. David Swinford, State Rep. Geanie Morrison, State Rep. Robert Talton, State Rep. Ray Allen, State Rep. Warren Chisum, State Rep. Tony Goolsby, State Rep. Gene Seaman, State Rep. Todd Baxter, State Rep. Martha Wong, State Rep. Bill Zedler, State Rep. Roy Blake Jr.

Some of these folks such as Allen, Baxter, Nixon, Seaman and Wong ought to be at the top of any Democratic target list in 2006, but others such as Grusendorf, Morrison, Chisum and Swinford are unlikely to have a serious challenge anytime soon.

Kuff elaborates on three GOP targets in Harris County for 2006 - Nixon, Talton and Wong. Nixon and Wong ought to be top priorities, whereas I think that Talton is more likely to be a multiple cycle project. Obviously, defending Hubert Vo's seat and Scott Hochberg's seat (to a lesser extent) should be Harris County Democrats priorities as well.

Moving on, Travis County has Todd Baxter to go after, and Mark Strama to defend. I've always wanted to see Terry Keel challenged in a serious way, but that never seems to happen despite the fact that both Kirk Watson and John Sharp won District 47 in 2002. Travis County Democrats followed that up by defeating not one, but two Keel's last November - Patrick Keel who Rick Perry appointed judge and Thornton Keel who lost a constable race (a Democratic pick-up).

In Dallas County, five seats ought to be targeted. District 102 where Harriet Miller gave Tony Goolsby a surprisingly close race in 2002 will likely see another close race in 2006. I believe that Miller is running again. District 101 is a low 40s DPI district in Mesquite that has not been challenged in several years, but I think a well-funded challenger could give Elvira Reyna a scare.

District 105 out in Irving has similar Democratic performance, and it would be good to see a well funded challenge to Linda Harper-Brown. The most Democratic district in Dallas County held by a Republican is clearly HD 106 held by the ethically challenged Ray Allen. Katy Hubener received 47.4% of the vote against Allen in 2004. I think that there is no doubt that Allen will have another well-funded challenger in 2006.

Finally, there is HD 107, an east Dallas district where Bill Keffer is the incumbent. Theresa Daniel ran a competitive race there in 2002, but Keffer was given a pass in 2004. However, I've looked at the numbers in the district, and the DPI of the district increased from 38 to 43 between 2002 and 2004. It's an uphill battle, but a well-funded Democrat could certainly make a good run in the district. I know that one candidate has announced, and there are others currently looking at the race.

Over in Tarrant County, Toby Goodman and Bill Zedler are the two districts that Democrats would probably have the best luck targeting. Elsewhere, Scott Campbell's personal problems give Democrats a chance in an otherwise hopeless district and near-misses of the past couple cycles such as Roy Blake Jr., Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton and John Otto should have challenges as well. As for Gene Seaman, he had a close call in 2002, but got a pass in 2004. Andrew wrote several months ago, however, that Democrats are working to recruit a candidate to run in 2006.

On the other hand, there are a good number of districts, especially in east Texas where we'll have to play defense - Stephen Frost, Mark Homer, Chuck Hopson, Jim McReynolds, and Robby Cook in addition to David Farabee, Hubert Vo, David Leibowitz and Mark Strama.

Again, this is only a very early look at the 2006 cycle. Democrats will have a good opportunity to make gains in the state house, but candidates need to be recruited now, and especially in these competitive districts which I have named above.