Burnt Orange Report

A Close Look at CD 23

By Byron LaMasters

I read Charles Kuffner's post on the looming primary fight in CD 28 (currently held by Henry Cuellar, previously held by Ciro Rodriguez, and eyed by State Rep. Richard Raymond). Kuff (among others) has pointed out that Richard Raymond should take a serious look at running in CD 23 which would be open if Henry Bonilla runs for the U.S. Senate. I started writing a comment, but an hour of typing and research later (yes, I'm a big dork), I developed a detailed analysis of Democratic chances in CD 23.

The DPI (Democratic Performance Index) of CD 23 (based on 2002 data - pdf file) is 43.2, whereas the DPI of CD 28 is 58.9. That begs the question of how much can an intense voter persuasion campaign shift the DPI? I decided to take a look at the 2002 DPI of the six congressional races with well funded Democrats, and compare that with the 2004 election results. Here's what we get:

Data

District 1 (Sandlin)
2002 DPI - 37.0
Sandlin 2004 % - 37.7
Shift: +0.7

District 2 (Lampson)
2002 DPI - 39.4
Lampson 2004 %: 42.9
Shift: +3.5

District 17 (Edwards)
2002 DPI - 36.0
Edwards 2004 %: 51.2
Shift: +15.2

District 19 (Stenholm)
2002 DPI - 31.0%
Stenholm 2004 %: 40.1
Shift: +9.1

District 22 (Morrison)
2002 DPI - 34.1
Morrison 2004 %: 41.1
Shift: +7.0

District 32 (Frost)
2002 DPI - 35.7
Frost 2004 %: 44.0
Shift: +8.3

Analysis

In four of six races, the Democratic candidate ran 7 points or better ahead of the DPI - the margin a Democrat would need in order to win in CD 23. A well-funded Democrat running an intense voter persuasion campaign has a real shot at winning an open CD 23 in 2006.

However, several other factors should be considered as well. First, it is very probable that the DPI of CD 23 decreased in 2004. Webb County (Laredo) turned out very heavily for Tony Sanchez and the Democratic ticket in 2002. The turnout was only slightly higher and decidedly less Democratic in 2004:

2002 U. S. Senator
John Cornyn REP 4,922 13.18%
Ron Kirk DEM 31,714 84.95%
Race Total 37,331

2002 Governor
Rick Perry REP 3,958 10.08%
Tony Sanchez DEM 35,101 89.44%
Race Total 39,241

2004 President/Vice-President
George W. Bush/ Dick Cheney REP 17,753 42.72%
John F. Kerry/ John Edwards DEM 23,654 56.92%
Race Total 41,556

The abortion issue obviously hurt John Kerry in Webb County with the high profile campaign in the Catholic Church made against Kerry. Webb County is overwhelmingly Hispanic and Catholic. Other down-ballot Democrats significantly outperformed Kerry:

2004 Railroad Commissioner
Victor G. Carrillo REP 13,914 35.39%
Bob Scarborough DEM 22,181 56.43%
Anthony Garcia LIB 3,212 8.17%
Race Total 39,307

2004 Justice, Supreme Court, Place 9
Scott Brister REP 12,270 31.98%
David Van Os DEM 26,097 68.01%
Race Total 38,367

2004 Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals Place 6
Michael E. Keasler REP 9,561 24.63%
J.R. Molina DEM 29,243 75.36%
Race Total 38,804

From these numbers it is clear that John Kerry’s performance is an anomaly, and that a generic Democrat can expect to receive a sizeable margin from the county. Hispanic candidates of any party run very well here. Perhaps most instructive is to look at the Supreme Court race where there were two White candidates. If Van Os’s total is what a generic Democrat can expect out of Webb County, then that would peg the DPI in the high sixties – still a nearly 20 point drop from 2002.

Conclusions

Even though only half of Webb County is in CD 23, the massive drop in Democratic performance in 2004 in the county severely reduces the DPI of the district as a whole. Finding the exact DPI of CD 23 in 2004 would take a bit of time and research, but one can reasonably conclude that the DPI decreased in 2004 from the 2002 DPI of 43.2.

Another factor to consider is what kind of candidate would be best for Democrats to run in an open CD 23. Would someone like Richard Raymond – who took a very high profile and partisan role during the 2003 redistricting fight, be the best candidate to run in a GOP-leaning district? Should a more conservative candidate be recruited? The ideology of the candidate didn’t seem to make that big of a difference in the ability of a candidate to run a successful voter persuasion campaign. Martin Frost was a prominent member of the Democratic leadership for many years and had a voting record in the mainstream of the Democratic Party and still ran 8.3 points ahead of the DPI. On the other hand Blue Dog Max Sandlin ran only 0.7 ahead of the DPI. Conservatives Charlie Stenholm and Chet Edwards ran very successful voter persuasion campaigns as well.

I would argue that the candidate mattered less than the campaign. Chet Edwards, Martin Frost, Charlie Stenholm and Richard Morrison all ran campaigns where swing voters were highly targeted and many GOP-leaning voters crossed over to vote for them. Looking at the tactics used by those campaigns should give us insight as to how those efforts could be replicated in a district such as CD 23.