Viva Las Cruces

By Jim Dallas

I'm on a bad internet connction, on the road here in Dona Ana county, so I'll be brief. When they say NM is a battleground state, believe it. Blockwalking today, we saw EVERY interested group trying to GOTV, and it appears houses are getting knocked many times over. The mission is truly to hunt down every last possible voter.

I thought the Iowa caucuses were crazy, but this right here is the big enchilada.

More thorough after-action reporting when Byron and I get back to Texas.

Early Voting Over

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

The Early Vote is cast in Texas and the results from Travis County are in.

On Friday, an astounding 30,987 votes were cast bringing the total Early Vote draw to 217,428, or 37.17% of 584,949 registered voters.

Early vote has been less than election day voting in Travis County traditionally, so even assuming a 50-50 split, my prediction is that a 70-75% turnout for the Austin area is in the cards. That's huge when you consider that in 2000, Travis county had a turnout of around 51%.

The University of Texas Campus had lines up to 150 at some points this afternoon. There were about 40 in line 15 minues after the polls closed even. There were 1984 votes cast at UT today, the highest daily vote return. All 23 early vote locations in the county cast their early vote record days today.

Here is the full and more or less, final file.

New Mexico Bound

By Byron LaMasters

Heading for New Mexico... I may have some Internet access, but I don't know for sure, so use this as an open thread if you wish. I'll try and post some while I'm out there, but probably not too much. I'll be talking to as many people as I have the chance urging them to go out, and vote for John Kerry for president.

Jiggety-Jog

By Jim Dallas

It's been a few months since I've last been in Austin. I just got here on the bus from Houston and am bumming around the UT campus for a few hours.

Impressions:

First of all, I would like to thank Capitol Metro for your wonderful bus service. Yes, we have buses in Houston, and indeed we have a very spiffy-but-somewhat-accident-prone light rail. But you could get married and divorced - twice! - waiting for a bus to come in Houston.

Second, I saw lots of Kerry signs and that is good. I also saw some signs put out by the TCDP saying, among other things, "Republican Redistricting tore Austin Apart", "Tell Baxter and Stick to Return the Illegal Money", and "Women make the difference!"

Except, this being Austin, I'd have had the sign say:

"Women and men-who-dress-like-women make the difference!"

But there's only so much you can hope for.

As usual, there aren't too many smiling faces on the Duval #7 bus. There never were. But in positive news, I hear that some dudes up in Hyde Park are very close to building the world's first angst-powered automobile.

They finally finished some new buildings at UT. Unfortunately, they've started new useless construction projects. I think there is a univesal principle known as the "Conservation of Construction."

Whoever decided to pick that new type-face for the Daily Texan headlines made a mistake; by this I mean that skinny, curvy, sans serif font they're using. I think it's called "Lame-O Condensed" or maybe "Weenie Extra Weak."

People vote here like it's going out of style. There is a massive line here at the UGL (where I'm dropping by to make some e-mails on the public internet terminal). I voted here at the UGL in 2000. There was NOT a line four years ago.

Burnt orange-colored everything. The number one reason I love Austin.

More Predictions

By Byron LaMasters

Greg's Opinion has some here.

Chris Elam is too good for predictions -- or maybe too smart. Or maybe just too much of a pussy. Just kidding. It depends who you ask, I guess.

George Strong says Vo and Hochberg look good -- if only he could spell Vo's name right as Rob Booth notes -- who is also too good, too smart, or... well, you know :-) to make any predictions other than that he'll be tired on Tuesday night.

Feel free to compare everything above to the predictions that Andrew and I made however wrong / stupid / smart we might end up being.

Republicans Gay-Baiting in Dallas Sheriff's Race

By Byron LaMasters

If Republican Danny Chandler is elected Dallas County Sheriff, will he be comitted to being serving the GLBT community in Dallas? His latest attacks bring that into question. The Dallas Morning News reports:

With just days left in the Dallas County sheriff's race, Republican candidate Danny Chandler on Thursday attacked Democratic opponent Lupe Valdez's endorsement by a national organization promoting gay and lesbian candidates. Mr. Chandler and the Texas Eagle Forum, a Republican woman's group, said their complaint was not about Ms. Valdez's sexual orientation, but that endorsement from the group calls for Ms. Valdez to promote a political agenda espousing goals such as federal gay and lesbian civil-rights legislation.

Ms. Valdez received an endorsement from The Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, which identifies, trains and supports openly lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender candidates and officials.

Mr. Chandler also has issued a new promotional mailer noting Ms. Valdez's endorsement.

[...]

Ms. Valdez, who is openly gay, said Thursday that her sexual orientation has no relevance to how she would carry out the duties of sheriff.

Her campaign coordinator, Barry Hanley, said, "her only agenda is to run the jail professionally and respond to the needs of Dallas County residents. She has no other agenda. This is not a legislative position."

In a statement Thursday, Mr. Chandler said: "Ms. Valdez's personal lifestyle is her own business and should not enter into the race. The difference here is that she is promoting the endorsement of the Victory Fund," which supports gay and lesbian issues.

The Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund is a unique organization. It basically has no agenda other seeing the election of openly gay and lesbian candidates:

The Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund is recognized as the leading national political organization that identifies, trains and supports open lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender candidates and officials. We are the only national organization committed to increasing the number of openly gay and lesbian public officials at federal, state and local levels of government.

Lupe Valdez hasn't signed on to any "agenda" other than that of serving the people of Dallas County as sheriff. Her sexual orientation is well-known, especially among the GLBT community, but she has not made it an issue in her campaign.

The real issue here though, is that Danny Chandler is trying to distract people from reports that he has violated federal election law:

On Monday, News 8 first reported on allegations that Chandler is violating federal election law. But even as the Chandler campaign dismisses the allegations as dirty politics, more evidence against their candidate continues to trickle out.

Chandler is now being investigated by the U.S. Office of Special Counsel for allegedly violating the federal Hatch Act. The complaint was filed by attorneys representing outgoing Sheriff Jim Bowles, whom Chandler defeated last March.

The Hatch Act prohibits government employees who handle federal grants from running for elected office. As Director of Homeland Security for Dallas County, Chandler comes in frequent contact with the administration of federal grants.

Last June, a federal grant coordinator notified Chandler he was "registered as the Jurisdiction Point of Contact for Dallas County." What followed were, instructions for Chandler "to utilize your 2003 UASI-2 sub grant."

Jim Badgett, who used to work for Chandler, said Chandler once asked him to help make recommendations on how to spend a federal grant.

"He just told me to survey the department that made a request to him, and to come up with a cost and submit that back to him," Badgett said.

That, according to Dallas Democratic Party Chairman Susan Hays, is why Chandler is under investigation.

"That is precisely what the Hatch Act is intended to prevent," Hays said. "It's intended to prevent people from running for partisan office while using the power to dispense federal pork."

Maybe it's just me, but federal election law violations seem more relevant to the race for sheriff than Lupe Valdez's endorsement by the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund. Dallas County might not be the most progressive place in the world, but Dallas County does have three openly gay elected officials: Dallas City Councilmen John Loza and Ed Oakley, along with Constable Mike Dupree. Their sexual orientation has come up occasionally in their campaigns, but in general it does not seem to have been a major issue for most voters.

Update: Also via Josh Marshall is news that the Jim Bunning campaign is implying that Democratic senate candidate Dan Mongiardo is gay. (He's not).

More on the CR's Fundraising Scam

By Byron LaMasters

This out of North Carolina:

An 86-year-old widow who lives on a fixed income in Burlington and reads her mail with a magnifying glass has little understanding that she's given the College Republican National Committee 40 donations since January worth $1,789.

In Chapel Hill, an 82-year-old widower living in a retirement community is surprised to learn he's given to the same group 52 times for a total of $2,266, all since January.

North of Winston-Salem, a 79-year-old woman can hardly believe that she's made 72 donations this year totaling $1,533, frequently writing checks every few days.

"Great day, they'd think I was rich if I could give that much to them," said the woman, Jacqueline Hall, recalling only a few gifts of $15 or $25. "I'm on a limited income. I'm a widow. I don't have money like that to spend. ... I wouldn't even think about sending $900."

The next day, though, after going through her records, she realized the total is accurate.

"It's amazing the mail that I get from Washington, D.C.," she said, seemingly confused as to how she had racked up such a sum.

Across the state and country, the CRNC, a century-old Republican youth organization, has aggressively solicited money from elderly people, writing "urgent," high-pressure pitch letters that often touch on senior citizens' fears.

According to IRS records analyzed by The Herald-Sun, at least 87 percent of the group's North Carolina donations came from people who listed their occupation as retired, a much higher rate than that of similar groups. Most of the donors reached by The Herald-Sun were in their 80s.

Scamming seniors... just what Republicans do best (among many other things). The Brown University Democrats Blog was on this yesterday and I posted on it based on this Seattle Times article. We'll see what comes out next...

Heard on the blogs

By Jim Dallas

Now around here we love consultants, and in fact some of us aspire to be consultants. But I found the following joke posted in one of the comment threads over at Pandagon.com to be painfully on-target.

A cowboy was herding his herd in a remote pasture when suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced out of a dust cloud towards him. The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses, YSL tie, leans out the window and asks the cowboy, "If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your herd, will you give me a calf?"

The cowboy looks at the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, "Sure. Why not?"

The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer, conects it to his AT&T cell phone, surfs to a NASA page on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite navigation system to get an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo. The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg, Germany.

Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the image has been processed and the data stored. He then accesses a MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel spreadsheet with hundreds of complex formula. He uploads all of this data via an email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes, receives a response. Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-tech, a miniaturized HP LaserJet printer and finally turns to the cowboy and says, "You have exactly 1586 cows and calves."

"That's right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves," says the cowboy.

He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on amused as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car. Then the cowboy says to the young man, "Hey, if I can tell you exactly what your business is, will you give me back my calf?"

The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, "Okay, why not?"

"You're a consultant for the Democratic party," says the cowboy.

"Wow! That's correct," says the yuppie, "but how did you guess that?"

"No guessing required." answered the cowboy. "You showed up here even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked; and you don't know anything about my business.

........ "Now give me back my dog."

Byron's Predictions

By Byron LaMasters

Well, it's that time in an election year. Bloggers wear a lot of hats. We're part-time party activists, part-time news regurgitaters and members of the notorious blog echo chamber. Most importantly, we're full time political news junkies and probably have just as good of a read on the election as anyone, so there comes a time where we ought to stick out our necks, put our names and reputations on the line, and make a prediction or two.

So, without any further disclaimers, check out the extended entry for my predictions on the Presidential race (popular vote and electoral college) and races here in Texas (and make your own predictions on this thread). The winner of each category will win their choice among several books that I have to give away.

President: John Kerry 277, George W. Bush 261 (Popular vote: Kerry 51%, George W. Bush 48%, Others 1%).

Kerry wins all Gore states except Iowa + Ohio and New Hampshire.

I think that Iowa and Florida are extremely close, but I'll give them to Bush. I think that it's certainly possible that both go for Kerry, giving him 311 electoral votes. If Bush wins, I predict that he'll win without Ohio. Ohio has been trending Kerry in the past week, and I think it goes for Kerry either way. I think a likely scenario is a Bush win with 280 electoral votes by winning the states he won in 2000 minus Ohio plus New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa.

My prediction for Kerry is based on two assumptions. First, minority voters turn out in very large numbers. Republican pollster Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates basically say that the race is dead even, but when adjusting poll results for a large minority turnout, Kerry's lead grows to several points. Also suggesting a very large minority turnout is the well known and unprecidented level of organization, coordination and funding of Get Out the Vote organization of Democrats and left-leaning groups.

Second, undecided voters will break for the challenger as they traditionally do in the final weekend. There's some doubt as to whether the tradition will hold in this election, because of the focus in this election on national security. I think the tradition does hold for several reasons. Polls of undecided voters show very low approval and reelect numbers for President Bush. The question of these voters is not whether they like President Bush or not. They've already decided that they don't. The question is whether John Kerry has met the threashold of acceptability on the issue of national security. It's taken a long campaign, and most importantly three debates for John Kerry to reach that threashold, but I think he's finally reached it among the type of voters who will decide this election. These voters are people who might have voted for Bush or Gore in 2000, they rallied to Bush after 9/11, they supported the war in Iraq from the begining, but they have deep reservations about how Bush has handled the war. While Kerry's lead in newspaper endorsements is unlikely to swing many votes, I believe that its reflective of the thought process of many undecided Americans in this election cycle. In recent days, I think Andrew Sullivan and The Economist well articulate the reasons why John Kerry is the best choice on national security issues, despite the flaws that some find in him. The only question in my mind, is whether the views of the Economist and Andrew Sullivan are widespread among undecided voters making up their minds this weekend, or if their views simply represent the pundit class elites who quick to overthink and overanalyse. I honestly don't know.

Texas Congressional Races:

CD 1: Sandlin 51, Gohmert 48
CD 2: Poe 51, Lampson 48
CD 17: Edwards 53, Wohlgemuth 46
CD 19: Neugebauer 54, Stenholm 45
CD 22: DeLay 52, Morrison 44
CD 32: Frost 50, Sessions 49

Sandlin has run a strong campaign, and has the NRA endorsement. He's running very strong in rural areas -- strong enough, I belive to offset Gohmert's margin from Tyler/Longview.

Lampson has a shot, esspecially if he gets a huge turnout from Jefferson County (Beaumont), but in recent weeks, it does look as if Democrats are less confident about Lampson than they are about Frost, Edwards and Sandlin. I don't have recent polling from the race, so its basically a gut feeling.

Edwards is in the best position of any Texas Democrat. He won't win in a landslide, but I think he'll win with a solid margin.

Meanwhile, Charlie Stenholm is in the worst shape of any Texas Democrat. Like Edwards, I think Neugebauer will win by a solid, but not overwhelming margin.

I hate Tom DeLay, but I do have a hard time seeing him lose in his overwhelmingly Republican district. I think the race is in the single digits as Tom DeLay has gone negative in recent days, but I still see DeLay winning.

Frost / Sessions is going down to the wire. It could go either way, so I decided to be optimistic and give Frost a one-point win.

State Representative Races

Democratic Pick-ups: Strama (Stick), Vo (Heflin), Liebowitz (Mercer).
Republican Pick-ups: Anderson (Mabry).

I'm not very confident about these picks. State Rep races are hard to peg, but this is my best shot. There's a lot of races I think could go either way: Snow / Frost in TX-1, Hughes / Glaze in TX-5, Rose / Askew in TX-45, Baxter / White in TX-48 and Allen / Hubener in TX-106. All those races will likely be decided by five points or less, so its hard to make an educated guess when I'm much less knowledgable about those races than I am about the congressional races. I could easily just call all of those races toss-ups to various degrees, however, for the purposes of my contest, which I'm asking you guys to tell me your picks, I figure that I'd give incumbents the benefit of the doubt and only pick the four challengers that I believe have the best chances of victory. I actually think that Democrats do pick up 3-4 seats in the state house, but I'm just not sure which ones they'll be. I expect to be wrong on at least several of these.

Here's the challenge. I have a bunch of books that I need to give away -- Students for John Kerry got a shipment of free books from Bill Press's publisher when he had to cancel his visit to the University of Texas. So, here's the deal. Post your predictions by the time the polls open on Tuesday (7 AM CST) in this comment thread for two categories:

Congress: Post your predictions for the six congressional races that I posted on. Then, post the margin for the winning candidate. The winner will be the person that gets the most winners right. In the case of a tie, the winner will be the person who's average margin is closest to the actual margin.

State House: Post your predictions for the races in which the challenger defeats the incumbent party. You get a point for each race you call correctly, and lose a point for every race you either 1) fail to call correctly or 2) call incorrectly. Whoever has the most points wins.

What do you get for winning?

I'll send you your choice of three books:

The President of Good & Evil by Peter Singer.
Lies, and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them by Al Franken.
Bush Must Go by Bill Press.

More Dallas Morning News Layoffs

By Byron LaMasters

According to several emails today there was apparently another round of layoffs at the Dallas Morning News today. Of note is the fact that the pictures and contact information of three of the more progressive members of the editorial board - Jim Frisinger, John Chamless, and Tim O'Leary are missing from the Editorial Board Blog as of this morning. I don't have confirmation that they've been laid off, but the evidence I've seen suggests that this is the case.

Update: Here's what Rob Dreher, probably the most conservative member of a very conservative editorial board had to say this morning on the DMN blog:

Today's a bad day

As many people outside this building know, there are layoffs coming down today, all over the paper. Our little editorial board band has been hit hard. We'll tell you more when we can.

posted by Rod Dreher @ Oct 27, 9:48 AM

And more:

You can see by looking at the photo roster which of our colleagues are no longer with us. My sense is that we're simply not going to discuss any of this on this blog, not because anybody has told us to clam up, but because we want to respect the privacy of our friends. We hope you faithful readers and correspondents will understand. And we thank you for the expressions of concern and loyalty you have e-mailed to us since yesterday morning.

posted by Rod Dreher @ Oct 28, 10:40 AM

And more:

re: a bad day

As Rod said, yesterday was a very tough day here. We lost not only colleagues, but friends. A number of people have sent emails expressing their sense of appreciation for those who lost their jobs, and we greatly value those responses. We will make sure the departed know of your kind notes. To pay tribute to their sense of mission, we blog on!

posted by Bill McKenzie @ Oct 28, 11:14 AM

Sorry to hear it...

Another Update: More at Super Awesome Good Analysis and The Frontburner.

Are you Whoring for Kerry?

By Byron LaMasters

Chris is.... in Florida.

College Republicans Fundraising Scam?

By Byron LaMasters

The Seattle Times has the details:

The College Republican National Committee has raised $6.3 million this year through an aggressive and misleading fund-raising campaign that collected money from senior citizens who thought they were giving to the election efforts of President Bush and other top Republicans. Many of the top donors were in their 80s and 90s. The donors wrote checks — sometimes hundreds and, in at least one case, totaling more than $100,000 — to groups with official sounding-names such as "Republican Headquarters 2004," "Republican Elections Committee" and the "National Republican Campaign Fund."

More at the Brown University Democrats blog.

Washington Times Pessimistic About Republican Chances in Texas Congressional Races

By Byron LaMasters

The conservative Washington Times reports that Democrats are running much beter than expected in the Texas Congressional races:

The redistricting plan adopted this year by the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature was expected to help elect a half-dozen more Republicans to the U.S. House this fall, but strongly contested races have put the exact number of gains in question.

Political observers say the Republican Party may gain only two or three seats.

Technically, Republicans have already picked up two seats -- TX-4 where Ralph Hall switched parties (although he was a Democrat-in-name-only), and TX-10 which Mike McCaul will give Republicans a seat previously held by Lloyd Doggett (Doggett will win the 25th District, the old 25th -- represented by Chris Bell will be won by Al Green in the new 9th District, the old 9th represented by Nick Lampson is now the 2nd district which will be represented by Lampson or Ted Poe, and the old 2nd district held by Jim Turner no longer exists. Turner did not seek reelection, so essentially the old 2nd was replaced by the new 10th - a net gain of a GOP seat before any election was held). Back to the article.

On the Frost / Sessions race:

Mr. Frost has tried to project himself as a moderate a man who voted with President Bush on various key issues (homeland security, in particular). Mr. Sessions, meanwhile, has told small-business owners that he will ensure they are not "taxed to death."

"[Frost] is so well-known. I think that is the main thing here. And he never, ever stops working," said Allan Saxe, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington.

Cal Jillson, Southern Methodist University political science professor, said the race is closer than he had anticipated.

"And I know it's much closer that Pete Sessions ever thought it would be or Tom DeLay expected when he re-did these districts," Mr. Jillson said.

On Sandlin:

In District 1, four-term incumbent Mr. Sandlin is leading in several polls against Republican Louie Gohmert of Tyler. [...]

Mr. Gohmert, a former district and state appeals judge, is expected to carry Smith County (Tyler) handily, but Mr. Sandlin's support in the rural areas is formidable.

On Edwards:

In the District 11 race, Waco Democrat Mr. Edwards, appears to be leading his Republican opponent, Arlene Wohlgemuth despite her attempts to portray him as an archliberal.

Mrs. Wohlgemuth, a state representative who worked with Mr. Bush when he was governor to pass the state's largest tax cut, has aligned herself with the president on all issues.

On Lampson:

In Beaumont, four-term Democrat Lampson, faces a high-profile opponent in former district judge Ted Poe from Houston in the reconstructed District 2. [...]

"I think a lot here depends on whether or not Mr. Poe is swept in by a huge Bush turnout. I don't think he can win it on his own," Mr. Jillson said.

Only in the Stenholm / Neugebauer race is the Washington Times confident that the Republican will win:

In District 17, Mr. Stenholm faces Republican Randy Neugebauer of Lubbock. The general consensus seems to be that Mr. Neugebauer will prevail.

How can you help? Donate to the DCCC's Defend Texas Campaign.

Coburn: Blacks have "Genetic Predisposition" to Die Young

By Byron LaMasters

Chalk this up as another Coburnism from tonight's debate with Brad Carson:

COBURN: [35:54] If you die... If you're an African American male in this country, you die before the average... your average life expectancy is less than the retirement age of social security. How, what kind of plan is that that we're gonna take from those because they had a genetic predisposition to have less of a life expectancy. You're gonna steal from them and give it to somebody else. The fact is that we can solve the problem. We can't solve it if we won't talk about it. And we can do with what Albert Einstein said was the most powerful force on earth, which is compound interest. Get it out of the hands of the politicians. [36:29

I'd like to find an African American that would agree with Tom Coburn -- that the Social Security system discriminates againt Black people. Wow.

Update: Well, it looks like Kos got the same press release that I did.

Bloggers Make Suggestions, the DCCC Listens

By Byron LaMasters

I was on a conference call with the DCCC last month where several of us recommended that in order to get grassroots activists and blog readers to contribute to national committees, they ought to allow people to earmark their contributions to races they care about. I know that a lot of us in Texas have been reluctant to give to the national committees because they take millions of dollars from Texans, but rarely spend much money in the state. So, the DCCC has listened. Now, you can contribute to the DCCC's effort to Defend Texas.

Red Sox Win!!

By Andrew Dobbs

For the first time in 86 years...

THE BOSTON RED SOX ARE THE WORLD CHAMPIONS

The curse does not exist. Yankees suck. John Kerry will be President.

The last time this happened we were in a relatively unpopular war... World War I.

Though it was not a presidential election year, an internationalist intellectual Democrat- Woodrow Wilson- was president (much like the man we will soon elect).

God, I am so excited I can barely breathe.

Congratulations to all of the guys that made this possible- Curt Schilling and Manny Ramirez (my two favorite players) especially. This is absolutely amazing.

I'll stop now, but go Sox!

Daily Kos is a lot of things...

By Byron LaMasters

Liberal. Provacative. Progressive. Perhaps "far-left" or "left-wing". I'm sure Markos wouldn't have too much of a problem with any of those labels. But, the Daily Kos is not raising money for terrorists. That's the libelous campaign rhetoric in Tom DeLay's latest attack on Richard Morrison's association with Daily Kos:

"LaRouche is a con felon and all I can tell you is that Mr. Morrison has supported and campaigned with LaRouche followers and Mr. Morrison also has taken money and is working with the Daily Kos, which is an organization that raises money for fighters against the U.S. in Iraq," said DeLay.

In response, the Morrison campaign issued the following statement:

RICHARD MORRISON STATEMENT ON DELAY’S LIBELOUS CAMPAIGN RHETORIC

(Houston, October 27, 2004) Richard Morrison, Democratic candidate for
District 22 issued the following statement today.

“Tom DeLay has crossed the line many times before but this time he’s gone beyond the pale…even for Tom DeLay. In a desperate attempt to shore up his support by making outrageous claims about me he has libeled an American veteran. He claims Daily Kos is an organization that raises money for anti-American Iraqi fighters. This is a bald-faced lie. The Daily Kos is not an organization. It is a blog written by Markos Moulitsas Zuniga a veteran of the U.S. Army. Daily Kos doesn’t shy away from pointing out DeLay’s ethical and legal problems but that doesn’t make Markos a terrorist sympathizer. This is the United States of America and freedom of speech is a right that Tom DeLay can’t over ride just because he doesn’t like what you’re saying…even if he thinks he is the federal government.”

Markos made an unfortunate remark about the deaths of American contractors in Iraq this spring, but to suggest that Daily Kos is "raising money for fighters against the U.S. in Iraq" is a blatant lie. As for the Morrison / LaRouche connection, I'm just perplexed.

More at the Stakeholder, Kuff and Kos.

New Early Vote File

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

I just received the early vote chart by location in Travis County good through yesterday. One thing to note, the turnout figure is high because there are more registered voters than the number used in the spreadsheet. In fact, if you look at this site you can see that it's nearing 585,000 registered. Also, precincts 147 and 148 are the two on campus here. The active registrations before this fall for each was about 700 and 900 respectivly. They are now as of today, 1803 and 2634. You can thank University Democrats for that.

Here is the file.

While you were in Iraq...

By Zach Neumann

North Korea has still not come to the table to discuss their growing nuclear armaments program. The NY Times reports that:

A trip to East Asia by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell aimed at forging a united front on North Korea ended Tuesday on a discordant note, with Mr. Powell rebuffing a suggestion by China and South Korea that they all show greater flexibility in pressing for an end to the North's nuclear program.

The disagreement appeared to reinforce the diplomatic impasse over North Korea's nuclear activities and to make it unlikely that the North would end its boycott of regional talks on the issue anytime soon.

Standing by Mr. Powell at a news conference, the South Korean foreign minister, Ban Ki Moon, said in response to a question that the United States and other partners in talks on nuclear issues "must come up with a more creative and realistic proposal so that North Korea can come to the negotiating table as soon as possible."

Earlier, the official New Chinese News Agency released a similar comment from China's foreign minister, Li Zhaoxing.

"We wish the U.S. side would go further to adopt a flexible and practical attitude on the issue," the press agency quoted Mr. Li as telling Mr. Powell during a meeting in Beijing on Monday. "China will make efforts to push for a new round of six-party talks at the earliest date in a bid to carry on the hard-earned peaceful discussion process."

I find it ironic that President Bush talks big about disarming dictators but turns a blind eye to Kim-Jung Il’s unabashed pursuit of a nuclear arsenal. While North Korea has openly sought to improve payload and delivery capacities, Bush has responded by withdrawing a considerable number of troops from South Korea. It seems that the President only supports wars that get rid of weak dictators who pose no imminent threat to the United States.

Before I get ten angry comments calling me an idiot allow me to clarify… I’m not saying we should invade North Korea here, I’m saying the President is a hypocrite.

Early Vote still Fast and Furious

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

The Secretary of State has new numbers good as of yesterday. 1,534,963 total votes cast among the top 15 counties with an 18.87% turnout. When you count in the rest of the state, I would be willing to guess that actual turnout is a bit higher as the smaller counties in Texas have had a history of higher turnout than the Urban ones (like sad Harris County and Hidalgo County).

Travis County here isn't slacking at all, yesterday there were about 18,000 cast, today around 20,000 cast when you add in the by-mail votes. I expect it to climb here over the next three days. On campus, yesterday's vote, 1350, was 1 shy of the highest which was the first day of voting.

Early vote surge continues

By Jim Dallas

1,294,409 votes as of yesterday; twice as many votes as this time in 2000.

UPDATE: A slight clarification was in order.

Burnt Orange Report from the Floor

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

:: Final Report ::

Yes, I know that it has been a couple of weeks since I've submitted one of these reports, after Pride Week I took a bit of a break (as we all did) and haven’t been at the SG meetings. But I am back this week.

Apparently while I've been gone, much of the discussion has been about the Proposed Diversity Symposium for the SG Assembly which was tabled and then rewritten as new legislation for this week creating a committee instead. (SG and Committees, we love them!)

President Chaney gave his report discussing progress on the Student on the UT Board of Regents. Two more system school (Dallas and either Permian Basin or PanAmerica) passed them with 100% of the vote and the LBJ School Student Council (GPAC) here at UT also passed it. In discussions with the Governor not the Governor, possibly chairman of some type, their stance was that 'it's the legislature’s decision'. Goodness, leaving policy to the Texas legislature, could be scary! Just kidding, there is more momentum for it this cycle than in previous ones but whether it is a priority, we shall see. I know that Andrew has some thoughts on SG's "obsession" with the issue; I'll let him chime in on that one.

Bill for SG to sponsor the Muslim Student Association Fast-A-Thon passes.

Bill to increase UT E-mail storage space has been revived and passed. Thank goodness as I'm always in need of more UT space, even though I have g-mail, because I divide my accounts and which type of mail goes where.

In the middle of debate over the Vending Machine Bevo Bucks Bill President Chaney's laptop suddenly burst out in a rousing chorus of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles soundtrack. As to why? No idea......

Charges were exchanged over the possibility that costs would increase anyways by implementing the system which would hurt returns to student organizations. Another charge was that those in communication with administrative officials (Dr. Harkins) had left him a bit flustered/in the dark claiming that he had first read about the effort to expand the service in the Daily Texan last week.

Personally, I didn't think this was all that much of a controversial issue, and I believe that it should be passed because the question really comes down to whether or not SG reps want to expand this service. Without the show of student support, it likely won't happen. SG resolutions tend to push issues in general, the specifics usually work themselves out (but of course, there are always Reps that love to bury themselves in endless debate over the wording but alas, I don't enjoy such privileges...)

The bill calls for a test run, it likely would be lower in costs of implementation since many of the network lines already exist on campus (the high cost the last time around). Grant Stannis, one of the authors of the legislation, swept in in the middle of the debate as he just made it to the SG meeting, and has been trying to calm the fears. Then an Instant Messenger conversation was read in support of the resolution that had happened just minutes before.

It's true; most students would be in support of expanded Bevo Bucks service on campus. It's highly irritating to be at other building on campus that isn't a dorm and not be able to use the UT IDs and Bevo Bucks. Most students don't understand it's because of a divide in contracts. But they don't really care; they would just like to see some action.

Oh heavens, the debate over this bill is going far beyond where it should be and reached a personal level when one of the Representatives questioned the student who sits on the committee that deals with this issue and commented "unless you're that stupid." I'm surprised that the SG Attorney General did not pipe up to declare anyone out of line.

Then there were a series of motions to move in and out of a Commiitte of the Whole in order to conduct a "straw poll" which found that when it came down to it, people wanted to pass the bill.

And in the final vote, after a friendly amendment to address concerns with scholarship money, the bill passed 29-0. Yea.

OK, so the music earlier was explained. Three costumed Teenage Ninja Mutant Turtles appeared in the SG meeting, interrupting things and taking the mike with the following demands.

The turtle pond is too small, they want their pizza mobile back ("you don't see Michaelangelo here do you?"), they wanted some of hair gel Chaney used, urging Chaney to never wear khakis again. And then they left. I am quite confused.

And that is all I have for tonight, as my battery is dead.

Bush Flip-Flops on Civil Unions within a 24-hour Period

By Byron LaMasters

This morning, on Good Morning America, Bush said he wouldn't mind if a state decided to offer Civil Unions to gay and lesbian couples.

Yesterday, he praised a congresswoman (Marilyn Musgrave) at a rally in Colorado:

I know you're proud of the Congresswoman from this district, Marilyn Musgrave. We're proud you're here, Marilyn. [...] We will protect marriage and family, which are the foundations of our society.

Musgrave is the sponsor of the Hate Amendment, which Bush supports, that would not only prevent a state from allowing marriage equality for gays and lesbians, but would also prevent Civil Unions:

Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution, nor the Constitution of any State, nor State or Federal law, shall be construed to require that marital status or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon unmarried couples or groups.

More at Brutal Hugs via Talk Left.

No comment yet from Boi From Troy, but here's a picture of some self-hating gay in Los Angeles.

Republican Race Baiting In Colorado

By Byron LaMasters

Looks like Republicans are trying to scare people in Colorado - attacking Colorado Congressional candidate John Salazar on Immigration. Watch the ad to see the shadowy figures in the background, trying to tie a Hispanic candidate to illegal immigration. Pretty shady. Rick Perry ran similar ads against Tony Sanchez two years ago, attempting to tie Sanchez to drug dealers and the murder of DEA agents.

Via Colorado Luis.

Bush-Cheney Suppressing Vote in FL

By Andrew Dobbs

I don't know if you've seen georgewbush.org, but it is an anti-Bush site with almost the same domain and the same layout as the real Bush site and is really quite funny. Something even funnier is that a lot of Bush-Cheney employees and other GOP types accidently sent things to their friends with "@georgewbush.com" email domains to "@georgewbush.org" thus sending them to the "catch-all" account for this website. The site's creator then felt compelled to post all of these emails online at their Dead Letter Office. Really funny, right?

Excpet when it is scary. A BBC reporter found two emails referencing a "caging list." The list can be found here and here. I saw these and didn't think anything of it before I read a story on Kos that explained what "caging" is: keeping Black folks from voting. From the BBC:

A secret document obtained from inside Bush campaign headquarters in Florida suggests a plan - possibly in violation of US law - to disrupt voting in the state's African-American voting districts, a BBC Newsnight investigation reveals. Election supervisor Ion Sancho believes some voters are being intimidated

Two e-mails, prepared for the executive director of the Bush campaign in Florida and the campaign's national research director in Washington DC, contain a 15-page so-called "caging list".

It lists 1,886 names and addresses of voters in predominantly black and traditionally Democrat areas of Jacksonville, Florida.

An elections supervisor in Tallahassee, when shown the list, told Newsnight: "The only possible reason why they would keep such a thing is to challenge voters on election day." [...]

In Jacksonville, to determine if Republicans were using the lists or other means of intimidating voters, we filmed a private detective filming every "early voter" - the majority of whom are black - from behind a vehicle with blacked-out windows.

The private detective claimed not to know who was paying for his all-day services.

On the scene, Democratic Congresswoman Corinne Brown said the surveillance operation was part of a campaign of intimidation tactics used by the Republican Party to intimate and scare off African American voters, almost all of whom are registered Democrats.

Around these parts I'm starting to drift closer and closer to the tin foil hat crowd. I covered the phones here at the TDP Headquarters for about an hour today while our receptionist was out to lunch. In that time I answered 3 calls with serious voting irregularities/campaign suppression. At other times I have answered to hear tales of election judges wearing GOP buttons and GOP candidates standing behind the clerks' table shaking hands, computers marking Republican boxes when the voter attempted to vote Democratic, ballots being put into cardboard boxes and on and on. Something shady is going on.

I am starting to worry that traditional voter suppression is giving way to outright election fraud. I think I am probably just a little worried about things in general but we definitely need to make sure the light is shed on everything we read/hear about. If the light is on their activities it will infinitely harder for them to get away with it, so let's keep up the heat.

Andrew Sullivan Comes to His Senses

By Byron LaMasters

Not a shocker, but here's his endorsement of Kerry. Not a glowing endorsement, but one nonetheless from a Bush supporter in 2000. I do fear not only for America, but for both parties should Bush win next Tuesday. I fear an inevitable, bloody, gut-wrenching fight for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, and I also fear a Republican Party out of control - with no regard for our budget deficit, and highly reliant upon religious conservative voters who will shape a dangerous social and foreign policy. Andrew Sullivan shares my concern:

And when you think of what is happening in the two major parties, the case for a Kerry presidency strengthens. If Bush wins, the religious right, already dominant in Republican circles, will move the GOP even further toward becoming a sectarian, religious grouping. If Kerry loses, the antiwar left will move the party back into the purist, hate-filled wilderness, ceding untrammeled power to a resurgent, religious Republicanism--a development that will prove as polarizing abroad as it is divisive at home. But if Bush loses, the fight to recapture Republicanism from Big Government moralism will be given new energy; and if Kerry wins, the center of the Democratic party will gain new life. That, at least, is the hope. We cannot know for sure.

Finally, I think that Sullivan makes a compelling case for voters who supported attacking Iraq from the begining. Even if you believe that Bush was the right man for responding to 9/11 and dealing with Saddam Hussein, a clear arguement can be made for a Kerry presidency. The next four years will likely present America with complex foreign policy problems where a nuanced, rather than an absolutist approach is necessary. In this ever-changing world, John Kerry is best prepared for the task. Sullivan writes:

In the essential tasks of building support for greater international help in Iraq--financially, militarily, diplomatically--Kerry is the better choice. No, other countries cannot bail us out or even contribute much in the way of an effective military presence. But within Iraq, the impact of a more international stamp on the occupation and on the elections could help us win the battle for the hearts and minds of Iraqis. That battle--as much as the one on the battlefield itself--is crucial for success. I fear Bush is too polarizing, too controversial, too loathed a figure even within his own country, to pull this off.

[...]

Kerry has said again and again that he will not hesitate to defend this country and go on the offensive against Al Qaeda. I see no reason whatsoever why he shouldn't. What is there to gain from failure in this task? He knows that if he lets his guard down and if terrorists strike or succeed anywhere, he runs the risk of discrediting the Democrats as a party of national security for a generation. He has said quite clearly that he will not "cut and run" in Iraq. And the truth is: He cannot. There is no alternative to seeing the war through in Iraq. And Kerry's new mandate and fresh administration will increase the options available to us for winning. He has every incentive to be tough enough but far more leeway to be flexible than the incumbent.

For once (on a non-GLBT issue), I completely agree with Andrew Sullivan.

Texas Tuesdays: Charlie Stenholm

By Byron LaMasters

It's the last Texas Tuesday before Election Day, and Charlie Stenholm is our feature. Stenholm's a Blue Dog and a Boll Weevil, but despite my policy disagreements with him, he's been a damn good congressman for west Texas for the past couple of decades. It will be sad to see him lose, as I fear he will next Tuesday.

Philadelphia Be Damned!!

By Byron LaMasters

I don't know if Philadelphia has chosen Gays over God, but they certainly chose Bill Clinton and John Kerry yesterday.

Meet Streaky Pete

By Byron LaMasters

The DCCC is weighing in on Pete Sessions' hypocricy (watch the Flash Ad).

Also in CD 32, according to several sources, dozens of Democratic D.C. staffers have poured into the district in recent days and have been organizing van rides to the polls for voters in the Democratic precincts of the district. At the HRC Black Tie dinner in Dallas on Saturday night Frost said that his race was the most competetive in the country. Of course he'll say that, but I there's a good deal of truth to it.

DeLay?

By Jim Dallas

The Galveston County Daily News makes a rather strange non-endorsement endorsement of Tom DeLay in the District 22 race. The most amusing part is about Tom DeLay "has sought" to represent Galveston County, the subtext being DeLay's redistricting tactics.

Paraphrased, "we should be soooooooo grateful that the great and powerful Tom DeLay had part of Galveston County drawn in to his district."

What really gets me is that it was penned by the almost-reasonable Heber Taylor, rather than publisher and Republican shill Dolph Tillotson.

Jim Pitts Campaign Above the Law?

By Byron LaMasters

This Jim Pitts campaign truck doesn't have handicapped tags and that's a handicapped parking space...

Update: Responding to some of the comments -- the person who took the picture said he checked the truck for handicapped tags and there were none. Obviously, I'm sympathetic to the Pitts family for the tragic traffic accident resulting in the death of Jim Pitts' wife over the summer. I've changed the wording above because there's some question over whether the truck in mention is owned by Jim Pitts, or whether it is the truck of someone else in the campaign. Either way, it's a campaign vehicle without handicapped tags in a handicapped space.

Check out one of the goofiest pictures of a congressman in the extended entry:

Sorry for the teaser. If you were hoping for nude pictures of Pete Sessions from his streaking days, I'm sorry to disappoint you. But here's the silliest use of the Texas flag on Congressman Joe Barton (R) (with State Rep. candidate Jake Gilbreath (D) in Palmer, TX.

Las Cruces Matters

By Byron LaMasters

That's what Salon says.

And that's why thirty of us from Austin will be going there this weekend.

I guess the Wingnuts Stuffed the Ballot Box

By Byron LaMasters

Because I certainly didn't vote for any of the winners for the Washington Post's Best Politics and Elections blogs. The most laughable is that the National Review's The Corner received the award for "Best Democratic Party Coverage". Huh?

I guess I'll hand it to them. Dems stuffed the online polls after the debates, the Goopers hit this one. It just goes to show that online polls are easy to manipulate and relatively worthless.

Tom DeLay: "We are a permanent majority"

By Byron LaMasters

If Tom DeLay had his way, we probably wouldn't even bother having elections anymore.

Watch DeLay on Drive Democracy.

Update: There's also a new Richard Morrison ad up today, "Drunken Sailor".

Chuck Norris Backs Down

By Byron LaMasters

"Walker, Texas Ranger" star, and well-known Republican Chuck Norris is pulling his ads for Lupe Valdez (Democratic nominee for Dallas County Sheriff) after pressure from Republicans. Kuff has the scoop, and a better title, "Chuck Norris Wimps Out"

Want a 30% Sales Tax?

By Byron LaMasters

Pete Sessions does:

I took a picture of this sign while I was in Dallas over the weekend. This one is on Preston Road near Walnut Hill in north Dallas. Sessions signs outnumbered the Frost signs in the Preston Hollow and Park Cities neighborhoods of the district (no shocker there), but I drove through the Kessler Park and Wynnewood neighborhoods of north Oak Cliff where Frost signs predominated (again, no surprise). I wish I would have had more of a chance to drive through the swing areas of the district such as east Dallas, Irving and Richardson. I did, however notice that Sessions is doing just what Arlene Wohlgemuth is doing to associate himself with the Bush / Cheney ticket. Here's another picture from the Bent Tree neighborhood of far north Dallas:

If Pete Sessions wins, it'll be because of straight ticket voting for the Bush / Cheney ticket, and Dallas Republicans are doing their best to prop up Bush / Cheney by adding Sessions (or Wohlgemuth, or insert the name of the embattled Texas Republican here) to the ticket.

A Winning Team for Texas Republicans...

By Byron LaMasters

... A losing team for Texas Kids:

The Wohlgemuth Record on Children

• Wohlgemuth wrote legislation that will remove as many as 270,000 Texas children from the Child Health Insurance Program - which also will prevent Texas from receiving hundreds of millions in federal funds. So far, 163,000 children have lost health insurance coverage so far. More than 45,000 have been cut from the Maternal and Child Health program.


• Wohlgemuth wrote legislation sharply cutting back on efforts to educate low-income families with uninsured children on how to enroll in the Texas Child Health Insurance Program. This contrasts sharply with the federal government's efforts to expand outreach to get as many as 2.6 million more children insured.


• In 2003, Wohlgemuth proposed ending the Texas Child Health Insurance Program entirely.


• Wohlgemuth voted to eliminate Healthy Texas Families - a child abuse prevention program which targets families at risk for abuse, neglect and other problems and trains young parents in breast feeding, immunization, and child development. So far, 1,768 families have lost these vital services and another 997 have been cut from the Family Outreach Program.


• Wohlgemuth proposed cutting the staff of Child Protective Services, the group that investigates child abuse and neglect and works to get children into safe homes.


• One billion dollars cut from K-12 education, a reversal on the commitment to educate Texas children.


• Wohlgemuth voted to cut a community youth development program meant to keep kids out of jail. This has prevented middle- and high school-age youths in some of the state's poorest areas from participating in athletic leagues and receiving help with homework. So far, more than 5,000 children have been cut from this program.


• Wohlgemuth voted to cut funding for state universities.

Donate to Vote Kids to help tell more voters in the 17th CD about Arlene Wohlgemuth's terrible record for kids in Texas.

Over a Million Served

By Jim Dallas

It's official: over a million Texans (at least 13 percent) have already voted by early ballot -- in just the "Top 15" Counties, which contain about two-thirds of the state's registered voters.

So the true number may have already surpassed 1.5 million, although we really won't know about the other 239 counties in Texas until Election Day. Again, this is just an extrapolation, so the overall statistic would still be about 13 percent turnout.

Karl-Thomas hinted that the million-vote milestone would likely be broken over the weekend, and he was correct.

Turnout so far has been highest in Collin, Travis and Williamson counties.

My observation is that usually about a third of the vote will be cast early, depending on the type of election. In 2000, registered voter turnout was 51.8%, and early vote turnout was about 20 percent.

Given similar ratios, we're likely to surpass that. In Texas I think we'll exceed 55%, and perhaps get closer to 60%.

380 Tons of Explosive Disappear in Iraq

By Andrew Dobbs

That's right, 380 tons of powerful explosives were sitting in a pile in Iraq. We knew they were there and yet we did nothing to secure them and now they are gone. From CNN.com:

Some 380 tons of explosives powerful enough to detonate nuclear warheads are missing from a former Iraqi military facility that was supposed to be under American control, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog says.

Melissa Fleming, spokeswoman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told CNN the interim Iraqi government reported several days ago that the explosives were missing from the Al Qaqaa complex, south of Baghdad.

The explosives -- considered powerful enough to demolish buildings or detonate nuclear warheads -- were under IAEA control until the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. IAEA workers left the country before the fighting began.

"Our immediate concern is that if the explosives did fall into the wrong hands they could be used to commit terrorist acts and some of the bombings that we've seen," Fleming said.

She described Al Qaqaa as "massive" and said it is one of the most well-known storage sites. Besides the 380 tons, there were large caches of artillery there.

Fleming said the IAEA does not know whether some of the explosives may have been used in past attacks.

The multinational force in Iraq and the Bush administration's Iraq Survey Group have been ordered to "look into" the disappearance of the explosives, a senior Pentagon official said.

Just FYI, the same type of explosives that went missing were used in the Pan Am Flight 103 bombing over Scotland in 1989. The bomb that tore that plane to shreds used 1 pound of these explosives. The Bush Administration's understaffing and mismanagement of this war (which I support in spite of Bush's mishandling) has handed 760,000 pounds of the same stuff to terrorists.

I shudder to think of what will happen after 4 additional years of this kind of incompetence.