Burnt Orange Report

Hutchison's Liberal Record

By Andrew Dobbs

Alright, now that headline is not an endorsement of Kay Bailey Hutchison, in fact it is quite to the contrary- it is pointing out that to the hard right of the GOP she will be quite odious. Quorum Report editor Harvey Kronberg wrote an interesting (if mistaken, as I'll argue) column for News 8 Austin discussing some of her recent boat rocking in DC:

Here in Texas, social conservatives and evangelicals dominate the Republican Party infrastructure. While affirming religious freedom, the state party platform goes so far as to declare the United States is a Christian nation. The platform calls on the party to deny assistance to any Republican candidate that does not completely and uniformly subscribe to their two pages of prohibitions on abortion and scientific research using fetal tissue or stem cells.

That's all fine. Whatever encourages citizens to engage in the political process is worthwhile.

But how important is all of that in electing public officials in Texas?

Last week, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison cast her first vote against a Bush nomination to the federal bench. Leon Holmes is an evangelical and the former head of an Arkansas right to life group.

Hutchison has long said she supports abortion until viability.

In the overheated rhetoric that usually accompanies controversial judicial nominations, one Texas social conservative labeled Hutchison a "religious bigot". Two former Republican Party chairmen castigated Hutchison for being a Republican in name only and said conservatives would work to defeat her should she run for governor in 2006. (...)

Religious conservatives are a key part of the Republican coalition in general elections. But the truth is that they are rarely successful in dominating the Republican primary above the level of state rep or State Board of Education.

The congressional primary last spring makes my point. Houston's Ben Streusand outspent Austin's Michael McCaul, pouring millions into messages targeting social conservatives. But as is typical, McCaul beat Streusand by a factor of almost two to one. Don't get me wrong. There are exceptions.

But if history is any guide, the storm and fury over Hutchison's vote last week will have little significance if she chooses to run for governor in 2006.

I respectfully disagree with Harvey on this one. To begin, his key example- the McCaul v. Streusand race isn't really a good one in this instance. Yes, Streusand reached out to grassroots social conservatives more than McCaul but McCaul is also a social conservative. It's not like Streusand was pro-life and McCaul was pro-choice, they are both pro-life. At that point the powerful social conservative voting base of the GOP picks their candidates on other important (or not so important) characteristics such as experience, likability etc. McCaul's victory doesn't prove that abortion doesn't matter above low level races- it proves that it only matters when there is a difference between the candidates on the issue.

With Hutchison v. Perry it will be an issue. Perry is 100% pro-life and Hutchison is moderately pro-choice. Perry will have a boatload of money- new laws suggest that her federally raised money couldn't be used for a race in Texas so she is starting off broke. The latest Ethics Commission numbers say that Perry has a shade under $5.1 million cash on hand. He will continue to be better funded and the social issue threatens to blow the race up. Hutchison "missed" the final vote on the partial birth abortion ban and is publicly pro-choice. For the right wing religious types that control the levers of the GOP in Texas, she's likely to lose a GOP primary.

I really want to run against Perry- he is very unpopular and corrupt, we can beat him. Still, running against Hutchison might not be too bad- with the social issues out of contention a lot of Republicans will stay at home or will consider voting for a moderate/conservative Democrat. A nominally pro-life Democrat like John Sharp or *shudder* Tony Sanchez could perhaps strip her of some of the social conservative vote and benefit from the taint of GOP corruption in this state. Still, she is the most popular politician in the state- right up there with George Bush- so she'd still be a much more difficult challenge.

Lesson: the GOP is in a bind right now and we Texas Democrats are looking at the possibility of gains in 2006 and beyond.