Burnt Orange Report

Charlie Cook on the Texas Races

By Byron LaMasters

Charlie Cook has a must read on the current state of the "2004 toss up races", which include all five of the embattled Texas Democratic incumbents. Check it out here (pdf file). If you don't have time to catch the whole thing, here's the gist of what Cook says (with a few of my thoughts added in).

On TX-1, Cook gives Sandlin opponent Gohmert the edge, although a recent poll showed the race within the margin of error (44-41 Gohmert). For Sandlin to win, Cook says Sandlin must make the race about the candidates and not their party labels - ok, tell us something we don't know. One thing that Cook said about Gohmert really caught my eye:

An Associated Press story noted that Gohmert built a reputation as a “tough, conservative judge who didn’t shy away from controversy.” For example, in 1996, Gohmert ordered a man with AIDS to obtain written, informed consent from future sex partners as part of his probation agreement for a car theft conviction. Gohmert defends the ruling as common sense and it is unlikely that it will create much backlash here.

Yikes. That's just weird. I support laws requiring people that have HIV / AIDS to inform their sex partners of their condition before having unprotected sex, but in terms of having the punishment fit the crime, the above ruling makes little sense. Anyway, moving on...

Cook calls TX-2 a complete toss up that will come down to the ability of Nick Lampson to overperform in Jefferson County and be able to at least hold his own (35%) in Harris County. Tough, but doable.

Cook says that in TX-17, Chet Edwards is the best campaigner in the Texas delegation and the race will be decided on who best defines the other. If Edwards wins, it will be because he successfully defined Arlene Wohlgemuth as an out-of-touch, right-wing extremist. If Wohlgemuth wins, she will have succeeded in portraying Edwards as a liberal Democrat.

In TX-19, competing polls paint different pictures of the race. A Republican poll has Randy Neugebauer up by eleven points and a Democratic poll has Stenholm up by four. The reality is likely somewhere in between. The district strongly favors Neugebauer, but Stenholm will be the hardest of any of the Texas Democrats to paint as a liberal. He has deep roots in west Texas and ought to have a fighting chance.

In TX-32, it's already a hard hitting fight between Pete Sessions and Martin Frost. Cook notes something that I've thought before. The race currently leans towards Sessions, but should he stumble, Frost will take advantage of it. Unlike Frost, Sessions is much less of a seasoned campaigner, and he's prone to saying silly things.

Anyway, I'd pretty much agree with most of Charlie Cook's thoughts. He knows what he's talking about, so read away!

Via Political Wire and Off the Kuff.