Analysing TX-32
By Byron LaMasters
Excelent analysis by Greg of the Frost / Sessions matchup. He has a color coded map of the district and outlines what both candidates must do to win. For Sessions, it's easy. Just get the Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents in north Dallas to continue their typical voting behavior. For Frost, it's an uphill climb to defeat Sessions in a high-powered communications battle. One interesting thought that I'll echo here, is that this race will be a guide for the Democratic expansion in Texas over the next twenty years. In order to win statewide, we're going to have to learn how to communicate with voters in places like north Dallas and be competetive there. Frost won't win north Dallas, but if he can be competetive there, he'll be able to win with a strong turnout in Oak Cliff. Anyway, be sure to read the entire post and check out Greg's analysis of the TX-17 race (Chet Edwards vs. Arlene Wohlgemuth). I'd be inclined to agree with him there too. That race will be decided on Edwards' ability to win in Brazos County (College Station) and getting a decisive margin out of Waco.
Posted by Byron LaMasters at May 28, 2004 04:42 PM
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Don't underestimate the "closet Democrats" effect in North Dallas. For decades they had no one to vote for up, so they do not really register accurately in DPI v. RPI performance ratings. Not that Frost will win N. Dallas, but I think he will do better there than people will think. Also remember, voting rates among Jews is VERY HIGH. Probably 90% of the Jewish population (many if not most who vote Republican) lives in the 32nd and they are going to bat for Martin.
