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January 22, 2004

The Deans on ABC

By Andrew Dobbs

So I just watched Howard and Judy Dean on ABC's Primetime Live. It was a good interview, I would imagine that it will help to stem some of Dean's freefall in New Hampshire if it was widely watched and it might help him salvage a second place finish there. I missed the debate so I'll either watch it online or watch a rerun of it later.

Dean explained the "I Have a Scream" speech quite well and having Judy with him helped to humanize him a bit. I think that it might help assuage the "Dean is Angry" meme. There are things that are worse to be than angry- remember that at this point in the 1992 campaign Bill Clinton was a draft-dodging, dope smoking adulterer who had been the "failed governor of a small state." Still, Dean- love him or hate him- probably doesn't have 1/10th of the charisma and political instinct of Bill Clinton and George Bush the Younger is a much more astute politician than his father.

Still, according to Political Wire, Dean will do a self-depricating "Top 10 List" tonight, and that plus the interview, plus his new ads, plus the debate performance might add up to better than expected (within 5 points I'd say) in NH and could put him right back on track. Dean has to finish better than expected in NH, win 2-3 states on February 3, win Washington, Maine, finish higher than Kerry in Virginia and probably most importantly (if he lasts through all of that) win Wisconsin if he wants to be the nominee. If he screws up on any of these he's on life support, if he screws up in 2 or more, he's finished. It's a tough task but we'll see if he can do it.

Update: So I just watched the condensed debate on ABC. Dean wasn't so hot actually, but it seemed like Kerry barely got a word in edgewise between all the others. I think that Lieberman really looked good, Clark answered some questions, Edwards dodged some bullets, Kerry managed to look presidential and while Dean didn't lose any ground, it seemed like an awkward rehashing of his stump over and over again. I think he stays down in NH and he might struggle on February 3. I really don't know if he'll last beyond February 10 and I don't know if he can beat George W. Bush in November. I know that Clark probably could (btw- awesome shout out to Charlie Stenholm), Edwards probably could, Lieberman might be able to, Kerry maybe but probably not. We'll see- if he can come back, he'll be formidible.

Posted by Andrew Dobbs at January 22, 2004 10:06 PM | TrackBack

Comments

and to think that a month ago we were perplexed about any possibility that would lead to Dean getting derailed...how times have changed

Posted by: Karl-T at January 22, 2004 10:18 PM

The appearance on Letterman was good--"Ways I, Howard Dean, Can Turn Things Around". My wife and I thought the highlight was "Start working out and speaking with an Austrian accent."

Posted by: Tx Bubba at January 23, 2004 10:03 AM

"...Kerry maybe but probably not...."

I don't think you are giving Kerry enough credit here. If anything I think Dean has helped Kerry by positioning him as more of a centrist candidate than he would have been perceived otherwise.
What we saw in Iowa and what we are seeing in N.H. is a bunch of skittish investors having second thoughts about a promising high tech start-up company at the last moment and putting their money instead into a "safe" blue chip investment like Kerry. I don't think this is a bad thing for the party.
I like Kerry because he is a solid liberal with lots of legislative experience and an unassailable military background. I wanted to commit to Kerry early on but it looked like he was being drummed out at the start. Now that he has bounced back I am encouraged about the Democrats' prospects.
Don't get me wrong. I like Dean and would support him without hesitation if he were the nominee. But this is all a game of perceptions right now and unfortunately Dean is currently losing that battle.
One question I have... Can anyone name one thing that they think Dean would do differently as president than Kerry?

Posted by: Mike Thomas at January 23, 2004 10:21 AM

I finally saw the thing--Howard Dean's Iowa speech. I don't really see what
the big deal is. It was a pep rally atmosphere and he pumped up the
faithful a bit after a hard loss. He didn't seem angry--just excited.

If you are a Dean supporter, this is no reason to abandon him. (I probably
won't vote for him--he turned me off with the "interesting theory" about
Bush knowing about 9-11 ahead of time). I had just got to liking Gebhardt when he got the boot. I like Lieberman too, but it doesn't look good right now.

Posted by: Marvin Keene at January 25, 2004 09:38 AM

Differences between President Dean and President Kerry? Not too much, truthfully. Kerry is slightly more liberal than Dean, but less likely to face down a GOP Congress, so it probably washes out the same.

I probably won't vote for him--he turned me off with the "interesting theory" about Bush knowing about 9-11 ahead of time

Oh, come on. Neither Dean nor anyone else of consequence has claimed that W knew exactly what was goint to happen and when. Not even Cynthia McKinney made that claim, despite what you may have heard.

Many people who are in a position to know, however, believe Bush was warned that an al-Qaida hijacking was imminent, that it might involve flying planes into buildings, and that Bush failed to act on those warnings. This is the "interesting theory" that Dean was alluding to.

We don't know for sure, but Bush's lack of cooperation with the 9-11 Commission suggests he is hiding something.

Posted by: Mathwiz at January 26, 2004 04:58 PM

I heard what Dean said. I am very well aware that Dean does not believe that Bush knew (or according to kookier folks arranged) 9-11 ahead of time. That's one of the reasons I was so turned off by the comment. Dean wanted to bash Bush, but didn't really believe "the interesting theory." So he said it anyway and just attributed it to a rumor. That's just not right.

As for the idea that maybe someone in the intelligence bureaucracy had some inkling about an impending 9-11 attack, well maybe they did--just like they had information on every attack we have had when we have gone to code orange--wait, that's right, there haven't been any. Whoops! False alarm.

As for not being very forthcoming about the 9-11 reports, I can't say that I blame the administration for keeping a few parts secret. Given all of the folks eager to quote out of context and connect the dots after the fact in order to score political points, I might be reluctant to release the info too if I were in his shoes.

Posted by: Marvin Keene at January 27, 2004 07:56 AM
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