The Beginning of the End?
By Byron LaMasters
Joe Trippi is out.
It was probably inevitable and it looks like this could be the beginning of the end of the Howard Dean campaign. Then again, John Kerry changed campaign managers a few months ago, and look what happened... No one thought that Kerry could recover, and he did. Will Dean? I don't think so. Dean faces a huge geographic problem at this point. There are seven primaries next Tuesday, but none of them have a natural Dean base. The DNC chair has said that if a candidate hasn't won any primaries by February 4th, they should probably drop out. Well, Dean probably won't have any victories by then as states more to his liking (Wisconsin, Michigan and Washington) aren't untill the next week, and it will be hard for Dean to win those states without any momentum. Furthermore, despite raising $40 Million, Dean is about to run out of money.
As for Trippi? He's a genius. He turned Dean from a no-name governor of a small New England state into the national frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Trippi was brilliant in the way that he embraced the internet and the grassroots structure of a campaign that it could create. He made Dean for America more than a campaign - he made it a movement. For that, we all ought to be grateful for Joe Trippi. With Howard Dean, Trippi has reshaped the way that the Democratic Party communicates to its activists. He tapped into a new source for money and volunteers that will be followed by every major campaign for years to come. However, Trippi eventually got too caught up in the movement, and forgot that he had to win elections. Yeah, it was great responding to the Club for Growth ads and donating to the bat and bringing out Al Gore and Bill Bradley and Tom Harkin, but in the end Trippi lost his focus. Instead of keeping a positive message and keeping Dean cool when he was held to the fire, Trippi and Dean lost focus in the weeks approaching the Iowa caucus. They went negative and forgot that they were running a campaign for president and not a holy war with Dick Gephardt in Iowa, a battle which sunk both Gephardt and (now probably) Dean.
We'll see what Dean does, but the fat lady is warming up...
Kos has thoughts on this as well (and a lot other folks do too, check the Blog for America Trackback link for that).
Posted by Byron LaMasters at January 28, 2004 06:54 PM
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I don't really call anybody who blew thru $40 million and a 20+ point lead in the polls in 30 days a genius.
Trippi has a certain flair and he took chances on the internet when no one else would but he (and Dean)failed to capitalize on the huge advantage the netroots gave him.
We donated $40 million hard earned dollars so Dean could run a kick ass media campaign and win some elections. Instead Trippi ran a lame ass media campaign, Dean turned into a gaffe-machine, and the campaign lost site of its message in a flurry of hype and endorsements.
What Trippi did in the beginning was genius, but what he did with the opportunities his online success afforded Dean was malpractice.
I have to kind of agree, there.
Note to self:
(1) When I run my presidential campaign, sack any campaign manager who believes his own press.
(2) Have the most competent ground game.
(3) Make ads that don't suck.
