Burnt Orange Report

Live...from Arizona

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

The following is a report from the other day that I copied out of my regular journal, so it's not exactly written the same way I would write it for the BOR.

...The Phoenix State HQ was much smaller than I expected after the near gargantuan Des Moines and Manchester state offices. But this is Arizona and there are 6 other states voting on the same day as this one.

Things had just started up for the day. The first big task was one that I was prepared for after experience in Fort Dodge, Iowa. Putting labels, precinct specific, on door hangers which would be put in packets with other information. 60 per precinct, all bundled with literally hundreds of precincts for the Phoenix area. Things got a big boost once the Utah group came in, we were at full labeling capacity with about 20 on the job.

Once things were labeled in just over an hour, they all had to be put into larger bags with precinct names put on them. Of course that led to having to find space to put all those filling bags in alphabetical order. We filled once storage room with G-Z. A corner of the main room soon came to own all the S precincts. The Phoenix Dean Chair’s office became the placeholder for C-F and then A and B were placed near the bathrooms.

In between all of this was the continual bag shortage. So bags were scavenged from other packets which were holding old information. So there was this never ending shifting of location for bags as some were emptied from one store room to make way for the emptying of old bags to make room for new bags which were temporarily being put in some other random corner. Co-ordinated Chaos. But the job was done in a couple hours and all were happy.

We also were on a conference call with Rob Reiner and the California “Southwest Voter Express” people, hundreds of them on busses flowing out of the surrounding states to fill Arizona and New Mexico. Most of the Texas people were going to New Mexico and Oklahoma, I was the Texas delegation for Pheonix, if not Arizona! Lol.

Much of today was preparing for the next two days when we would be canvassing about 100 precincts here in Phoenix. I was really impressed with the organization here. It doesn’t seem like it on the surface, but statewide the operation is pretty much the same. The Dean campaign was the only campaign to file forms with the state party to get Democratic watchers for each precinct for election day, meaning we will be able to have access to the voter rolls throughout the day.

Each precinct will have a captain that will be able to cross check the IDed Dean supporters with those that have voted. There will also be the runners for each precinct that will then be directed to drag people to the polls that have not come in yet. This will all be preceded by walkers, dropping polling place info to those IDed Dean supporters and leaners who have not already voted early or by mail, a huge thing here in Arizona. All that will be preceded by the next two days last big undecideds canvassing and phoning. The database here is very well set up, similar to New Hampshire which was by far an improvement over the Iowa technique in my view.

Also, a few weeks ago, the Dean campaign sent out vote by mail applications to 120,000 people. Over 20,000 responded and voted which I found very impressive. There is a very organized, concerted effort to have outreach to the various constituencies here in Arizona by members of those constituencies.

Now the ground game is focused on one last ID and message spreading weekend of canvassing and then getting all those people to the polls. I am impressed, at least for an operation out here. The field office coordinator here is a 6 cycle veteran of this; I’m glad to see that experience on board.

Would the Governor Please Get Serious?

By Jim Dallas

The reaction to Governor Perry's "whip the children" school funding plan is in, and it's not pretty. But then again, that's what this plan deserves.

See, Rick Perry believes the best way to insure that kids graduate from high school is... to withhold money from underfunded schools until they produce results.

It's one thing to be for tough love and accountability, but what Governor Perry is proposing is sadistic -- starving the schools that most need money because they are least able to perform.

There's one decent idea in the plan, and that is incentives for good teachers. But the plan mucks the idea up so bad it's practically worthless.

Only in Republican la-la land where there's an organized "conspiracy" between teacher, parents and public school administrators to purposely sabotage education would this even-remotely make sense.

Although I'll admit -- there is an organized conspiracy surrounding education, and it's called standardized testing. The purpose is to cheapen education while at the same time producing illusory results, ("Hey ma, all the kids know how to fill in bubbles on a sheet of paper! Isn't that terrific!") giving political cover to all involved.

As usual, Comptroller Carole was critical, saying:

"I am afraid that the governor's plan leaves too many children and teachers behind," Ms. Strayhorn said, adding that she thinks the various incentives may widen the funding gap between high-wealth and low-wealth districts because higher-wealth districts are in a better position to qualify for the incentives.

"It may work in some instances, but it appears that it widens the gap on funding equity," she said. "The state has to pick up more of the tab, and we've got to have equity."

Would the governor please get serious about education?

In other news, the federal government is reporting that not only have sex, drugs, and rock and roll invaded suburban schools with a vengeance, drinking and casual sex is actually more common in suburban schools than in the inner-city. The Plano-ization of America has finally happened:

“People who think they’ve escaped these kinds of societal issues by moving to the suburbs — we think they’re mistaken,” Greene said. “The suburban schools aren’t safe havens."

Call me a prude, but you know, I for one happen to think this is sort of a problem. Maybe if the social conservatives would get serious and propose programs that, you know, worked, maybe then our kids wouldn't be out getting into trouble. Example Number One: the stubborn insistence on pushing the failed, Victorian-era abstinence-only agenda instead of a more effective, comprehensive sex education program.

Thoughts on Dean's Eminent Demise

By Andrew Dobbs

Howard Dean probably ought to end his campaign right now but the powerful forces of self-delusion and institutional intertia will keep him on the road until February 8th, the day after the Michigan primary- a primary he is sure to lose. As the New York Times has reported:

After raising $41 million in 2003, far more than any of his Democratic rivals, Dr. Dean spent so much on television and on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire that campaign officials said they were only confident of having enough money to compete through next week (...)

Dean has also pulled all of his campaign ads, has said that he will not campaign in any of the February 3 states, preferring to focus on Michigan on Feb. 7. He fired Joe Trippi- a cult like figure who is almost as beloved by Deaniacs as Dean himself is. He is dealying the paychecks to his employees and is polling very very poorly everywhere. Dean ran a phenomenal grassroots effort to get to the front of the pack and then forgot what got him on top and fell back to the bottom again.

Though it appears that Howard Dean will not be the nominee for our party, I think that it is impossible to say that he hasn't been an amazingly positive influence on our party. His message was one of pride in being a Democrat, outrage at what Bush has done and vision for a future where everyone had health care, education, employment and civil rights. Before he came into prominence the race was one of "I support the President, but..." and one of sloganeering. His presence shook up the party and gave us something to look forward to this year. No less than conservative pundit Andrew Sullivan has noted that Bush is in trouble, in part because of Howard Dean:

The huge turn-out in New Hampshire; the electability factor for Kerry; the passion of the Dean people: all this shows how thoroughly energized the Democrats are to win back the White House. Bush is in the Rove-Cheney cocoon right now. From the SOTU, it looks like he's going to run on 9/11. Bad, backward-looking idea. His coalition is fracturing; his reach out to Hispanics seems to have hurt him more with the base than won him new votes; his spending has independents deeply concerned; Iraq is still a wild card; prescription drugs pandering hasn't swayed any seniors; the religious right wants him to attack gay couples in the Constitution - which will lose him the center. More worrying: I'm not sure he even knows he's in trouble.

Howard Dean has made this race competitive- his passion and his commitment to the grassroots has meant a reinvigoration of the Democratic Party and a new commitment to our values. I'm incredibly proud of the work I did on this campaign and I'll never forget the people I met and the lessons I learned. But its time to move on and get ready for the next fight. My greatest hope and goal isn't to get Howard Dean to be elected President- its to assure health care, education, housing and fair treatment for all Americans. The first step on this goal is beating George W. Bush and Howard Dean will not be the person to do that it seems. Not that he couldn't beat him one-on-one, I believe he could, but that he will not be the nominee.

I would like to see John Edwards recieve the nomination. He is not so easily attacked by Bush and Co- he doesn't have the regional, ideological and polemical problems of John Kerry and I think that he is an attractive alternative to George W. Bush. He can't be attacked as another Northeast Liberal- he isn't either of those things. He can't be attacked as negative- his message is one of hope. I realized that we'll probably end up with Kerry and I suppose I'm okay with that, but Edwards is the man I want.

The thing that pains me, more than not having Howard Dean the nominee or president, is the fact that the experience of this summer- all of those amazing people in a beautiful place working for a cause so much greater than ourselves, all of the fun we had and experiences we were a part of will no longer be there again. Its tough to think that I'll never sleep on an air mattress at 72 Cherry Street again, that I'll never jump into Lake Champlain in all my clothes after a long day of campaigning, that I'll never dance to U2's "A Beautiful Day" with 100 great friends- sweaty and excited at the world unfolding in front of us. It makes me sad, but I suppose its time to move on, time to get ready for the next fight because we can take our country back. I have always said about the Dean campaign that its not the man or even the message but the movement that matters. The movement lives on and the message is as strong as ever even if the man will be staying behind.

Chris P. Carrot

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

I thought I was crazy when I was in Iowa before the Black and Brown Debate. I wrote about it in an entry of mine back then that I thought I saw a Crispy Carrot running for office and that the three supporters there were more than the Clark, Lieberman, Sharpton, Moseley Braun, and Bush campaigns combined.

Low and behold, today I stumble across an article today about Chris P. Carrot running in New Hampshire. It's a PETA project. There is a whole website for him. And the saddest part?

Vice President Colonel Corn.

Please. Make. It. Stop. Ow.

My Thoughts Exactly

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

I have been thinking about this in almost the exact sense and am glad someone put into better words than I have attempted to. And though I don't have any personal grudges against any of the other writers here on the BOR (though I'm sure it has seemed that way the past week or two, my apologies guys) this post over at DailyKos hits the nail on the (ditto)head.

...To put it in more colorful language, in conjunction with the corporate media, the Political Opinion Complex has starved the Democratic electorate of campaign information to the point where they will eat up anything put in front of them. Whether that meal is Clark, Dean, or Kerry, the public is simply far too hungry to choose.

Sadly, this state of affairs has turned the Democratic electorate into dittoheads. We will vote however the POC tells us to vote. We jump at a resume when we are told to jump, we join a movement when we are told to join, we will accept a southern strategy when we are told to accept, and we believe in electability when we are told to believe. We will sell-out unions if we are told it will help us win. We will go to war if we think it will appeal in the south. We will abandon urban renewal if we are told it won't play in Middle America. We will stamp out volunteer movements if we are told they won't lead to corporate donations. Although it primarily exists outside and above the party, The Political Opinion Complex wields significantly more control over the Democratic Party than any institution supposedly "inside" of it....

Momentum is back in a big way, and it's because Democrats have become dittoheads to the center-right POC.

That's all from me now. I'm off to Arizona tomorrow afternoon to continue the good fight for Governor Doctor Dean because I don't believe in letting Iowans and New Hampshirites making up my mind for me. I'll try to blog from Phoenix live when I get the chance. I leave you with a late night spur of the momment quote from yours truly.

If you don't stand for something, then you stand for nothing. If you stand for nothing, then you don't stand a chance.

The Beginning of the End?

By Byron LaMasters

Joe Trippi is out.

It was probably inevitable and it looks like this could be the beginning of the end of the Howard Dean campaign. Then again, John Kerry changed campaign managers a few months ago, and look what happened... No one thought that Kerry could recover, and he did. Will Dean? I don't think so. Dean faces a huge geographic problem at this point. There are seven primaries next Tuesday, but none of them have a natural Dean base. The DNC chair has said that if a candidate hasn't won any primaries by February 4th, they should probably drop out. Well, Dean probably won't have any victories by then as states more to his liking (Wisconsin, Michigan and Washington) aren't untill the next week, and it will be hard for Dean to win those states without any momentum. Furthermore, despite raising $40 Million, Dean is about to run out of money.

As for Trippi? He's a genius. He turned Dean from a no-name governor of a small New England state into the national frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Trippi was brilliant in the way that he embraced the internet and the grassroots structure of a campaign that it could create. He made Dean for America more than a campaign - he made it a movement. For that, we all ought to be grateful for Joe Trippi. With Howard Dean, Trippi has reshaped the way that the Democratic Party communicates to its activists. He tapped into a new source for money and volunteers that will be followed by every major campaign for years to come. However, Trippi eventually got too caught up in the movement, and forgot that he had to win elections. Yeah, it was great responding to the Club for Growth ads and donating to the bat and bringing out Al Gore and Bill Bradley and Tom Harkin, but in the end Trippi lost his focus. Instead of keeping a positive message and keeping Dean cool when he was held to the fire, Trippi and Dean lost focus in the weeks approaching the Iowa caucus. They went negative and forgot that they were running a campaign for president and not a holy war with Dick Gephardt in Iowa, a battle which sunk both Gephardt and (now probably) Dean.

We'll see what Dean does, but the fat lady is warming up...

Kos has thoughts on this as well (and a lot other folks do too, check the Blog for America Trackback link for that).

Behold the power of duct tape

By Jim Dallas

I'm a strong believer in multi-purpose adhesives, as any of the Dean Rangers who watched me patch up a hole in the bus with duct tape last week will attest (yes, I carried a roll of duct tape with me at all times while in Iowa).

But this is just a little too weird for me (from a friend) --

AP: Pantex workers taped together broken nuclear warhead

It's good to know that the Pantex folks out in Amarillo are handling our nation's nuclear stockpile with such tender loving care.

New Hampshire

By Byron LaMasters

Well, it's looking like Kerry by a few points over Dean with Edwards and Clark duking it out for a distant third. If that's what we're looking at I see it as great for Dean (he's back, the comeback Dean? Well, maybe not, but something like that), good for Kerry (back-to-back victories make him the official frontrunner), and not so good for Clark (it looked like he might come in second ten days ago). If Edwards finishes third, that's still a boost for him, and helps him going into South Carolina (he becomes the favorite there), Oklahoma and Missouri. If Clark finishes third, then he does what he's expected to do and isn't helped or hurt. If Clark's fourth, then he's in trouble, but he has enough strength in the 2/3 states that he'll still be in the race (same for Edwards). Regardless, Joe Lieberman is finishing fifth, and it looks like his campaign will be over.

If you haven't seen the exit polls, kos has some from midday, and Drudge has 5 PM (Eastern) numbers at: 36 Kerry, 30 Dean, 12 for Edwards and Clark. The polls close in one hour, so we'll see how things shake out.

Update: Well Dean lost in double digits. It'll be hard for him to come back. Dean's not done, but he's going to have a very tough time in the Feb. 3rd states. States like Michigan, Wisconsin and Washington are more likely to go for Dean, but the Feb. 3 states come first. So, what happens? I don't know, but Dean has some tough decisions to make.

GOP Land Commissioner Wants to Restore Confederate Plaques

By Byron LaMasters

The Austin American Statesman reports:

Texas Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson said he wants to find a compromise to allow the state to restore plaques commemorating the Confederacy that were removed from the Texas Supreme Court building in 2000.

The Sons of Confederate Veterans organization has sued to restore the plaques, which were removed under then-Gov. George W. Bush in response to objections by the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People.

Patterson belongs to the Confederate descendants' group, but he said he is not actively involved in the lawsuit, the San Antonio Express-News reported in Sunday's editions.

I think that it's appropriate to display confederate plaques commemorating the Confederacy for historical purposes. I think that a museum is the best place for it, however, and I'd oppose Confederate memorabilia in government buildings. I think that it's inappropriate to commemorate a government which broke off from, and attacked the United States in order to protect the institution of slavery in government buildings. Put it in a museum....

Yellow Dog Blog Relaunch

By Andrew Dobbs

As many of you may or may not know Byron, Jim and I have been behind the Texas Democratic Party's official weblog, the Yellow Dog Blog. Between BOR, school, work, etc. it has been a challenge for us to keep it up to date so traffic has been low and the site has been only sporadically updated. Well that is now going to change.

I have been hired to work at the Texas Democratic Party and so I will be using this time and opportunity to update the site probably a minimum of 3 times a day. We will also have guest posts from prominent Democrats, opportunities for action and all kinds of other cool stuff. I hope that you all will start visiting the site and getting involved in our online community!

Tuition Deregulation a Mistake, Republican Now Says

By Byron LaMasters

Is it just me, or is this way too little, way too late:

Rep. Fred Brown, R-Bryan, says voting in favor of tuition deregulation last year was a mistake.

"I was a big supporter of tuition deregulation, and I'm almost embarrassed now to tell people I was," Brown told the Fort Worth Star Telegram. "I don't know what to tell people now except for it was a dumb move on my part."

After returning home during the legislature's winter break and receiving a few angry phone calls from tuition-paying parents, Brown and other state legislators are doing their best to condemn the tuition hikes.

Don't blame me for your tuition increase seems to be the mantra of many state representatives.

Pete Sessions: US Poor at least have TVs

By Byron LaMasters

Pete Sessions put his foot in his mouth again. At a Jewish community debate with Martin Frost earlier today, Pete Sessions said this:

The last question was about the gap between rich and poor. Frost gave the standard left-wing answer, but Sessions did something that made my mouth drop open, saying, "This is the only country in the world where the poor have color televisions." As you might imagine, there was a notable gasping from the audience.

What about health care? What about education? What about jobs? Pete Sessions doesn't care. I guess he thinks that all people really need to get by in America is a color television.

He's Baaaaaaaaaaack...

By Jim Dallas

Would anyone agree with me that David Duke is the Freddy Krueger of Louisiana politics... the bad guy whose supposed to go away but always ends up coming back in less-credible and even-more disgusting ways?

Pardon me while I wretch...

Damn! UT Loses...

By Byron LaMasters

The first UT basketball game I went to this season was the Longhorns first loss in Austin in 25 games. Geez!

My Howard Dean Evolution and Devolution

By Byron LaMasters

I promised to respond this post by Karl-Thomas a few days ago. I finally have a chance to write it now.

I first met Howard Dean in May of 2001. I was a senior in high school at the time and a lesbian couple in Dallas (who had gone to Vermont to get a Civil Union), who I had met through my activism during the 2000 election cycle invited me to be their guest to a Howard Dean reception hosted by the HRC Dallas Federal Club (a group of wealthy gay donors who give $100+ per month to the Human Rights Campaign). I had no idea at that time that Howard Dean would be running for president, but it was an honor to meet the man who had the courage to sign a law granting gay and lesbian couples the same equal benefits and rights that are granted to heterosexual married couples. It almost cost Dean his re-election. While he won 50-38% over Ruth Dwyer in 2000, Vermont's quirky election laws send the election to the State House when no candidate wins a majority. With Republicans taking over the state house in a backlash over the Civil Unions (in the "Take Back Vermont" campaign which I saw on barns and yards across the state when I visited in the summer of 2000 for a rowing camp), Dean barely won re-election. Dean was within 2645 votes of the election being sent to the state house, where he surely would have lost, and likely not had the opportunity to run for president. On a side not, my lesbian friends were a big part of Dean's re-election in 2000. When the race was close in September, they decided to send out a fundraising mailer to the several hundred gay and lesbian couples who had gotten Civil Unions in Vermont since it became law earlier that year. Within weeks they raised over $10,000, and that last minute cash helped put Dean over the top.

When I first looked for who to support in 2004, I looked to Al Gore. When I met Al Gore in May of 2001 (yeah, that was a busy month for me), I encouraged him to run again, and I pledged to support him. Al Gore inspired me. I may have been the only person in America to be inspired into politics by Al Gore, but I turned 18 in July of 2000, and while I initially liked Bill Bradley, I quickly rallied to Gore. While there was little I could do to help in Texas for the Gore campaign (and I got involved in a congressional race where I could make a difference instead), I did what I could. I co-wrote an article for my high school newspaper, Al Gore: The Best Choice For Our Generation. And after the election, I was angry and helped organize protests in Dallas of the Florida recount. So I was with Gore, then Gore decided not to run in December 2002, so I had to find a candidate.

Well, January 2003 rolled around and I was angry, depressed and sad for America. Democrats had just gotten trounced in November. We lost our Senate majority, we lost seats in the House, we lost the Texas House, lost seats in the Texas Senate, Republicans swept the statewide ticket and we were about to go to war without allies, without clear evidence and without exhausting all of our other options. There were several candidates running for president and none of them really stood out. That was - until I heard Howard Dean speak. I remember hearing Dean speak at several forums in January and February 2003, most notably the NARAL event and the DNC Winter meeting where Dean inspired me. Finally, a candidate willing to stand up to George W. Bush. Finally, a candidate not ashamed to be a Democrat. We had lost the 2002 election, in my opinion, because Democrats failed to offer a clear and coherent message for America. So many Democrats ran campaigns on messages such as: "I support the President on this and that, but....". Howard Dean was the answer to this problem. He gave Democrats a reason to be proud of their party. He stood up against the right-wing in Vermont, and he beat them. Last Spring, he was the only one standing up to the right-wing in America, and I thought that he was our best - our only shot at beating George W. Bush.

By March, I was a Deaniac. I went to my first meetup in March, and brought half of the University Democrats with me. I hosted a Students for Dean party and raised some money for the organization. I went to meetup in April and then to more meetups throughout the summer. I went to three fundraisers between March and July, donating a total of $40. I wrote letters to Iowans. Why? Because I didn't want 2002 to happen again. I saw most of the other candidates as Bush-lite. I believed that Howard Dean was the only Democrat that could beat George Bush, because he was the only one that had the courage to fight him and speak out. Howard Dean was the only candidate that drew hundreds and thousands of supporters to his events and rallies. He was the real deal.

This fall, I began to have my doubts. There was no defining event last fall that caused me to go from a hardcore Dean supporter to soft supporter - it was more of a gut feeling. My anger over the war had subsided, so that was no long a defining issue. I still supported Dean, but I stopped going to meetups, donating money and volunteering. I stayed in Austin while many of my friends boarded a plane for Iowa in September to blockwalk for Dean as "Texas Rangers". Here's what I wrote about that at the time:

I'm not able to make it for the weekend, because I'll be working tonight, and to be perfectly honest, I'm a little less enthusiastic about the Dean campaign than I was several months ago. I think that Dean had the right message for the Spring of 2003, but I'm not quite sure if it's the right message to win next November. Unfortunately, there's no candidate out there that just grabs me, though, and I'm not longing for Al Gore or Hillary Clinton to jump in the race either. Of the other candidates, the only other candidate that I'm really drawn to is Wesley Clark, but things like this and this obviously concern me. So, basically you can put me on the record as currently leaning Dean, but my support is much softer than before. I've officially resigned from various volunteer roles (Students for Dean, Longhorns for Dean, etc.) that I've held with the campaign.

A few days later, I wrote this:

I do think that there are serious issues about Dean's ego, about his abrasiveness, about his issue positions, about his ideas for Iraq that his hardcore supporters would like to ignore (or just pretend that it's DLC propaganda). Can Dean win the nomination? Yes. Can he be elected President? Yes. But he still has a lot of maturing as a candidate to do (although you could say the same about any of the other candidates, especially Wesley Clark). Back to Bush. I don't just want to beat him, I want to beat him bad. I don't want it to be close enough for their to be any doubt. And I want to bring a Democratic Congress in with our Democratic president. I'll support the candidate in which I think could best do that. If after a few months, it becomes clear that Wesley Clark is in the best position to bring us that victory, then I'll endorse him. If Howard Dean remains that candidate, then I'll stick with him. We'll see.

I guess the main concern was electability. I worried that Dean couldn't beat Bush. Not that I had any specific evidence at the time, but it was a gut feeling that he was less electable than another candidate - and electability was the main reason that drew me to Dean.

Moving forward, some people might think that the "I have a Scream" speech is the main reason that I'm turned off to Howard Dean. Actually, that's not the case. The main reason is that I think that his campaign organization is vastly unprepared to take on George W. Bush. Take a look at the results of Iowa. Howard Dean probably spent about $7 Million in Iowa. He had thousands of volunteers, and finished a distant third. Geez! That's what I call a miserable failure. Pundits have pointed to a bunch of things as turning points in the campaign. The two that I've seen most often are the capture of Saddam Hussein and Al Gore's endorsement. Both are good things. It's good that Saddam is in custody and it was good, for the Dean campaign, that Al Gore lent his support. But where Dean failed, was translating Gore's support and his campaign from one of an insurgent to one as a frontrunner. He never did it. He pulled in endorsements, but continued his message attacking Washington Democrats. And while he attacked "Washington Democrats who supported the war" (Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry), Dean hit the campaign trail in Iowa with his new best friend, Tom Harkin.... a Washington Democrat who supported the war. Hypocrisy anyone? Maybe, maybe not, but regardless, a terrible campaign tactic. And those ads... I hope that Dean has a new campaign ad team. Some of his ads are decent like his response to the first Club for Growth ad, but others where he's speaking into the camera against a blank backdrop are just god-awful.

So why? Why have I gone from "lean-Dean" to uncommitted at this point? Two reasons. The first is that my main reason for supporting Dean in the first place was because I thought that he was the only candidate that could beat George W. Bush. Dean was the only candidate that was energizing Democrats and bringing new people into the party. That theory was disproved on Monday night in Iowa. While more young people attended the Iowa Caucuses than ever, the majority of 18-29 year olds voted for John Kerry and John Edwards. And furthermore, while the vast majority of Iowa caucusgoers opposed the war in Iraq, the majority of anti-war caucusgoers voted for John Kerry and John Edwards. Why is this? Why did anti-war Democrats and young Democrats vote for Kerry and Edwards who supported the war resolution? They obviously saw something in Dean that made them look elsewhere. The main reason that I supported Howard Dean was because he could bring new people into the party and energize the base. The results of Iowa suggest that Howard Dean didn't do that - and if Howard Dean can't win over White pacifist Democrats in Iowa, then how can he win anywhere else, and more importantly, how can he beat George W. Bush?

The second reason for my conversion from lean-Dean to uncommitted is the "I have a Scream Speech". Was I personally offended by it? Not really. Did the media completely blow it out of context? Yeah, of course. But, the fact of the matter is that Howard Dean has two major perceived weaknesses. First, that he is weak on national security, and second that he is angry and doesn't have the temperament to be president. I don't agree with either, but that's not the point. American electoral politics is much more determined by perception than reality. Yes, politics is unfair, but it's true. Is George W. Bush a "compassionate conservative"? Hell, no! But Bush and Rove convinced enough people that he was one, and he became president. Perceptions... Many people heard Howard Dean for the first time on Monday night. And what was their perception? That he is loud and angry and most importantly... unpresidential. Dean and his people like to blame the media. That's the easy way out. He was the frontrunner and the frontrunner gets media scrutiny. That's life. And that's a good thing. If Howard Dean can't handle the fire he gets from the media and other Democrats, how the heck could he handle a barrage of attacks from Bush and Rove? Dean went to the DNC chair to whine about people attacking him when he should have just had a little more thick skin and taken an "Aww, shucks" attitude about it. Instead, he lashed back, and while he knocked off Dick Gephardt, he seriously wounded himself.

So what now? I'm uncommitted. If Dean proves that he can get back on message, that he can laugh at himself a little bit more, that he can spend his money a little bit better, that he can produce better ads, that he can deflect attacks, that he can stop blaming the media, that he can prove that he can go toe to toe with Bush on national security, that he can disprove attacks that he is angry and doesn't have the temperment to be president, that he can once again prove that he (and no one else) can bring new people into politics and the party - THEN I'll be back with him. But I have serious doubts. I want to see the Democrat best positioned to beat George W. Bush win the Democratic nomination, and I don't know who that is. It may be Dean. It may be Kerry. It may be Edwards. It may be Clark. Dean should get credit for being the first serious Democratic presidential candidate in this race to stand up to George W. Bush (which all of the other candidates are finally doing now), but I'd rather nominate someone who figured it out late and can bring a serious challenge to Bush, than nominate a candidate that had the right message from the begining, but who is perceived as unpresidential and would more likely lose to Bush. But for now, I figure that the best thing I can do is wait, work on local races for the next month or so, and let the good folks of New Hampshire, South Carolina, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, Delaware, Missouri, North Dakota and the other states after February 3 help me with my choice on March 9th.

Update: One thing that I forgot to add, which came up in comments by Sherk:

It seems like electability is a fairly important criteria to you, for obvious reasons. I'm curious, though, what if you knew for certain (say, through divine revelation or something equally guaranteed to be true) that no Democrat could beat Bush come November? Would it change who you support?

Well I disagree with the premise, as WhoMe? points out in the comments that polls in the last day or two have shown John Kerry beating George W. Bush. We're a 50-50 nation and I believe that barring any huge changes by November, this election will result in a close victory for either side. However, I would not change who I would support even if I knew that the Democratic nominee would lose no matter what. I want Democrats to nominate the candidate that is not only best positioned to take on Bush, but who is best positioned to have coattails on our entire ticket all of the way down the ballot. In that respect, Dean has worried me for months. While I think that Howard Dean can beat Bush in November, he would probably win with a combination of the northeast, the midwest, the west coast and the southwest (and maybe Florida). The rest of the South would be pretty unattainable for Dean, in my opinion. Well the South (Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Oklahoma) is where the battle for control of the U.S. Senate will be primarily fought. While it's unlikely that any Democrat would win those states (except Florida, and maybe North Carolina for Edwards), Clark and Edwards are best positioned to cut Bush's coattails in those states. If Dean were the nominee, we would probably see the Democratic candidates in those states running away from Dean on issues such as his position on war and rolling back all of the tax cuts. With the Texas redistricting, some of our Texas Democrats will be running away from Dean if he is the nominee. The best example is Martin Frost who in his announcement speach last week boasted his support of education and supporting the "No Child Left Behind Act" (which his opponent Pete Sessions voted against), which Howard Dean has attacked other Democrats for supporting. And Martin Frost is only the tip of the iceberg of Dean's potential problems for Texas Democrats this fall. Frost is probably the most liberal of the five Democratic incumbents (Frost, Stenholm, Sandlin, Lampson, Edwards) running in new Republican-dominated districts. I want all of them to win, and to have a presidential nominee with a platform that they can run with.

Common Sense

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Just a late night post for those still up.

I thought I was the only one to think about things this way. Read this article for some thinking on defining "being presidential."

And elsewhere on the web, an interesting piece that just hit Yahoo's frontpage (a CNN story)...Some very interesting positive stuff...and then...

Some analysts have their doubts about blogs, however.

Larry Purpuro, coordinator of the Republicans' e.GOP Project in 2000, said many bloggers were little more than "armchair analysts in their bathrobes (with) no serious interest in leaving their living rooms to actually help the campaigns."

Well, I don't think that is that case here at the Burnt Orange Report, nor over at Daily Kos and the like. Many of us have just gotten back from Iowa or New Hampshire. Many have been working over the break for local candidates. Some are crazy enough to go galavanting off to Arizona next weekend for another round of Presidential Campaigning (me). That's the great thing about political blogs, they tend to be written by those with experience first hand of what's going on. Or at least they have a sharp sense for what's going on.

The blogs were all aflutter Thursday with a "dance version" parody of the performance. In the audio remix, Dean's rattling off of the names of upcoming primary states is set to a pulsating techno beat punctuated by a siren.

It's nice to have the Blogs get some credit. Isn't it nice when something started among the populace finds it's way into national mainstream discussion? It's not just us reporting on them.

A Father's Wisdom

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

This will likely be my last post on the topic of the Post-Caucus Dean rally, for one, because I don't have any family members left to comment on it. But I bring these words to you, written by my father to friends in the conservative Hill Country west of Austin because I think that sometimes we forget in the world of commenting that a little historical perspective is in order. My father has seen a lot of politics in his over 50 years in this country. He also said something to me today that struck me- "even is all else fails," he said, "and the right rules for the next 10 years, it's only ten years. They will fall just like others have before them. We still must set our agenda."

It is a true statement, yes, and at the same time we have a duty to do the best we can to offer the public an agenda that means something. I personally think back to the days of Andrew Jackson sometimes when thinking about Dean. Maybe we have the opportunity to fundamentally change how things work. We haven’t been able to do it on the House or Senate level, too many people that can't be removed at once. That leaves the Presidency. Kerry or Edwards, all their rhetoric aside, sound hollow when blasting Washington politics as usual. I wonder why.

Anyways, here's a bit from a father, a teacher, a historical buff- older and wiser than I...

I have just returned from Austin, where my wife and I visited our son Karl-Thomas. Karl-T worked for Gov. Dean in Iowa for the last two weeks, while he was on winter break from the University of Texas (he returned to Texas with Deans Texas Rangers last Wednesday). Prior to the Iowa caucuses, Karl-T worked in the Dean HQ in Manchester, NH. for about a week.

Karl-T was in the crowd when Gov Dean gave the Monday speech, rallying his supporters. This evening (Fri.), I saw a digital video of Dean giving the speech that was taken by a volunteer in the audience, close to the stage. This video was electric! Kids, and old farts like me, were waving flags, cheering, chanting, and generally vividly showing their support for Dean's candidacy. The speech I saw Dean give was not the "scream" as portrayed on the major TV networks. There was no loss of control. In fact, I could barely hear the "scream' at the end of his pep talk (but it was there.)

This guy was having fun! He was rallying his troops, many of whom were young people who came into Iowa from across the United States. If you listen to the content of the speech, Dr. Dean just says he will continue to wage his election campaign, in the states of all the Democratic (and Republican) contenders, and he would compete in every state that had a primary or election caucus.

In no way do I believe that he was "out of control," as so many network political pundits were so quick to say. I respect the American media. For the most part, I believe that they do a good job of keeping the public informed about issues of the day.

This is my take on this whole situation. I believe the news media does not know what to think about Gov. Dean's campaign! This campaign has electrified so many people on the grass roots level that the media does not know how to respond. Dean was touted as the frontrunner because of his fundraising and organizational abilities and because of his ability to connect with voters as a down to earth person on a personal level. Of course, he also worked Iowa for quite some time.

I like Howard Dean, warts and all. I think it's about time that we had a leader that had warts.

I cannot remember that last time that there was such genuine enthusiasm for a political candidate. (in my political experience,1972 comes to mind.) In no way did I believe that the Iowa rally was a "Muskie moment." Howard Dean is GENUINE! I heartily approve of his position on many issues that I hold quite dear, such as social security, social spending, and especially education.

He is the same man we wholeheartedly offered our support to at the House Parties on December 31st. When you lead from the front, you have to expect to get beaten upon, even if it is unwarranted. Gosh, he came in third in 2004. In 2002, NO ONE thought he would even be a contender. Clinton was third in Iowa, and second in New Hampshire, and look what eventually happened.

If we keep the faith, and spread the message, we will prevail- on Jan. 27th, Feb. 3rd, 7th, & 10th, and March 2nd and 9th! This wound is in no way fatal, although some other Democrats and FOX News Network, Rush Limbaugh, and their ilk would have you believe so. George W. Bush's political career should be mortally wounded for his handling of the economy, his Iraq policy, and his outright LIES concerning Saddam's purported weapons of mass destruction!

Dean 'Scream'. Bush 'Record'. Which does the media make the big news story?

Where's that Liberal Bias when you need it?

Real Video

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

It didn't take long. Someone from the crowd at Dean's Post-Caucus Rally has a video from the crowd available for watching. This is what really happened. That's why many of us were mystified by the 'scream'. You can hardly hear it. From where I was (directly in front of Dean, halfway between him and the cameras) I didn't even hear it because the crowd was so loud; I would say even more than the following clip sounds.

Hear and Watch the Truth

A Mother's Tale

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Sometimes I get lost in all the media and I never would have thought that talking to my mother would be just what I needed. I called her the other day, after feeling quite foolish for my pre-Iowa comments about how good everything looked from the inside of the Dean Campaign. I thought that I was going to have to reassure her about what was going on.

How wrong I was. She was the one telling me to not lose faith. My just over 40 year old mother, and independent liberal who voted for Perot, Gore, and soon for Dean was telling me about how the media was being so unfair and that now was the time to work harder. She tells me how she just had to give another $100 donation.

It spurred me to give a little more and I will be leaving for Arizona next weekend because this isn't over by a long shot.

But what surprised me was that my normally 'scared of technology' mother and father are now writing letters with the Dean campaign tools, using the online fundraising page (House Party in Fredericksburg- 40 people, $1000+ raised. Fredericksburg is like 85% Republican), and now is even started to comment on the Blog.

This was her post. And remember, this isn't from the stereotypical teenage commenter...

Dr. Judith Dean is for real! Humble, sincere, honest. I love the fact that she doesn't put a show on for the media, no "Washington Wife" here, what you see is what you get. Her family and patients are the most important things in her life, and Howard obviously respects and loves this woman for her beliefs and values (which he also shares).

Howard Dean rocks! Finally, an honest candidate who isn't afraid to show who he is. The reason the media keeps focusing on him, is that they don't know how to deal with a "real" person with honest feelings and emotions. The media is trained that if you don't understand something, attack it. They just don't get it. Howard Dean is the real deal, not some blow-dried pre-packaged politician like Kerry.

Howard and Judith are down-to-earth, practical people. (Yes, a flowering bush for a gift makes perfect sense- pay for it once and reap the benefits of its beauty for years to come- this is a man who can balance our budget.)

Support Dean! Vote Dean! Go, Dean, Go!

Love your parents. Never feel as if they can't surprise you.

Planned Parenthood Construction Continues

By Byron LaMasters

On Wednesday, one day be fore the 31st anniversary of Roe v. Wade, the constuction of a Planned Parenthood clinic in southeast Austin resumes after being temporarily disrupted by anti-abortion activists. The Daily Texan reports:

As abortion rights activists celebrate the 31st anniversary of Roe v. Wade, Planned Parenthood is moving forward with construction of a southeast Austin clinic despite organized opposition from abortion opponents.

Construction on the clinic was temporarily halted by a boycott by local builders when Browning Construction left the project under pressure from anti-abortion activists, but work on the site has since resumed.

"When we made the announcement about Browning, we were overwhelmed with calls from contractors wanting to work on the project," said Danielle Tierney, Planned Parenthood spokesperson.

At the construction site, located on East Ben White Blvd., bulldozers moved dirt Wednesday afternoon while men talked near plain, white pickups.

"We made a promise to this community to guarantee access to affordable health care," Tierney said. "Building this clinic is our top priority right now."

Despite a contractor boycott conducted by Chris Danze and his organization, Planned Parenthood is back on track here in Austin because of the enormous outpouring of support by the Austin Community. Fortunately, women in Austin are lucky. There is widespread community support for a woman's right to choice and affordable healthcare. Unfortunately, in many places that is not the case. Still, Planned Parenthood of the Texas Capitol Region serves ten counties in Central Texas, the majority of which are primarily rural. Click here to support the services they provide for women in Central Texas.

Gov. Wilder to Speak at UT

By Byron LaMasters

Former Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder will be speaking at the University of Texas next week. Wilder, a Democrat, was the first and only African-American governor since reconstuction:

L. Douglas Wilder, former governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, will be the keynote speaker for a symposium that will explore ways that universities can better prepare students for life in a diverse society.

Wilder, the nation’s first African American governor since Reconstruction, will join delegations from seven universities, as well as key leaders from the private sector, the military and government.

“Educating for a Diverse America: A Summit and Symposium” will take place on the campus of The University of Texas at Austin on Jan. 29-30. The symposium is one of several events on the campus commemorating the 50th anniversary of the landmark school desegregation case, Brown v. Board of Education.

Bush a Human Rights Leader

By Byron LaMasters

*Gag*:

He didn't free the slaves.

He didn't rid the world of Hitler.

He didn't even - like his father - preside over the destruction of the Berlin Wall.

Yet George W. Bush tells New Yorker writer Ken Auletta: "No President has ever done more for human rights than I have."

Via Blog Free or Die, a New Hampshire based weblog.

The Deans on ABC

By Andrew Dobbs

So I just watched Howard and Judy Dean on ABC's Primetime Live. It was a good interview, I would imagine that it will help to stem some of Dean's freefall in New Hampshire if it was widely watched and it might help him salvage a second place finish there. I missed the debate so I'll either watch it online or watch a rerun of it later.

Dean explained the "I Have a Scream" speech quite well and having Judy with him helped to humanize him a bit. I think that it might help assuage the "Dean is Angry" meme. There are things that are worse to be than angry- remember that at this point in the 1992 campaign Bill Clinton was a draft-dodging, dope smoking adulterer who had been the "failed governor of a small state." Still, Dean- love him or hate him- probably doesn't have 1/10th of the charisma and political instinct of Bill Clinton and George Bush the Younger is a much more astute politician than his father.

Still, according to Political Wire, Dean will do a self-depricating "Top 10 List" tonight, and that plus the interview, plus his new ads, plus the debate performance might add up to better than expected (within 5 points I'd say) in NH and could put him right back on track. Dean has to finish better than expected in NH, win 2-3 states on February 3, win Washington, Maine, finish higher than Kerry in Virginia and probably most importantly (if he lasts through all of that) win Wisconsin if he wants to be the nominee. If he screws up on any of these he's on life support, if he screws up in 2 or more, he's finished. It's a tough task but we'll see if he can do it.

Update: So I just watched the condensed debate on ABC. Dean wasn't so hot actually, but it seemed like Kerry barely got a word in edgewise between all the others. I think that Lieberman really looked good, Clark answered some questions, Edwards dodged some bullets, Kerry managed to look presidential and while Dean didn't lose any ground, it seemed like an awkward rehashing of his stump over and over again. I think he stays down in NH and he might struggle on February 3. I really don't know if he'll last beyond February 10 and I don't know if he can beat George W. Bush in November. I know that Clark probably could (btw- awesome shout out to Charlie Stenholm), Edwards probably could, Lieberman might be able to, Kerry maybe but probably not. We'll see- if he can come back, he'll be formidible.

Debate Thread

By Byron LaMasters

I'm responding to what Karl-Thomas wrote below, but for now, I'm going to watch the FOX News debate. I've probably watched less than half of the Democratic Presidential debates this cycle. Frankly, they've been boring. But, I have a feeling that tonight will be different. Everyone has something to prove. John Kerry has to prove he's the real deal. John Edwards has to prove that Iowa wasn't a fluke. Howard Dean has to prove that he can laugh at himself without looking too silly. Wesley Clark has to prove that he's not a Republican. Joe Lieberman has to prove that he's got a chance in hell and Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton get to do what they can to keep things entertaining.

Now More Than Ever? I Agree

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

I have waited for a couple of days before posting my thoughts on Iowa here. I wanted to see what others outside of the Iowa operation thought, and what the feelings were of other Dean supporters. I have done my looking and listening and I am thoroughly ashamed by what I see, even here on this blog, and I intend to get to that in just a moment.

Over this break, I was in New Hampshire. I was in Iowa. I experienced the campaign as a volunteer and later as the Fort Dodge, Iowa Storm Center captain. I would give up nothing, absolutely nothing to lose the experiences I was a part of these last two weeks.

I went because of the Dean campaign, not because of my natural interest in politics. I didn’t think that volunteering for the caucus, for any state operation was something that normal people could do, and I am not alone in that thinking. I saw people excited and in awe when it finally hit them that they we ordinary citizens truly can have a voice again in what has become of our democracy. We need this. Democracy needs this. The future needs this and I believe we have reached a critical point in our history that requires us to take part in this type awakening.

Since when has over 3,000 Americans coming together because they feel like they can make a difference once again, been something we can dismiss, even if their guy didn’t win first? Since when has bringing people back into the process and truly being powered by the grassroots been something to overlook?

I don’t know how much energy I would have left for some of these other Democrats because I am not simply anti-Bush, but pro-Dean at this point. A lot of people are as well, and these are people new to the process, new to politics. If we lose the Dean campaign, I feel that we are losing something much more than a candidate, we are losing the inspiration that has called to the other half of America.

Change is what helped Democrats come back in 1992. But now we are in 2004 and we need to change again because the last four years have shown us that old-politics alone hasn’t given us much. Our party has so much potential if only it would be willing to risk change. That is what should make us stronger than Republicans, the ability to accept new ideas. Deep in all our hearts, we know that type of America we want to see in the future. We cannot get there if we keep compromising ourselves.

Simply being against someone as Democrats will get us nowhere. Being for someone and what they stand up for and what they believe in… yes, that takes commitment and no, it is not easy, but it something that we can respect.

Now, to those who have posted about their teeter-tottering support for Dean because of Iowa-

It is my opinion that they have trouble standing up for what they believe in and why they were for Dean in the first place. It is my opinion that they have let themselves be swayed and influenced by the media, one of the very things that Dean’s campaign of change has focused on. It is my opinion that some have let the thinking of old-politics claim victory to the very purpose that has differentiated this campaign, this movement from the others.

Think outside of the box. What all has changed?

Do you think that Kerry will be able to escape the pigeon-holing of yet another elitist, Ted Kennedy, Massachusetts Liberal by the GOP? No number of motorcycle rides, pheasant shooting, or guitar playing has been, or will be able to kill that one. Outside of New Hampshire, where is he supposed to win considering his Iowa win was a last minute consolidation of resources and concentration on old-politics structure? Those non-existent volunteers are not going to help this party. We cannot afford to pay people $100 a day to phone bank which is what was happening in Iowa, honest to God. Has Iowa changed that?

Is John Edwards our savior? He may be a charming young man but his win was only because everyone ignored him and he benefited from Gephardt’s suicide run that drug Dean right down with him. Will this war-voting, Patriot Act-authoring, public finance limiting, son of a mill worker even have enough money to keep winning primaries after February 3? Remember, any nominee will have to last until late July before cash comes back. And Texans, remember that good old frivolous lawsuit limiting Proposition 12? Did you listen to the State of the Union? Combine that Republican issue with a multi-millionaire lawyer, turned politician with an Al Gore-esque populism, once again lacking the people part of the power to the people equation… Has Iowa changed that?

General Clark, probably the man I can somewhat admire because he has that something called grassroots support, might not even see the light of day now that Dean, Kerry, and Edwards are all still in the picture after his Iowa skipping. But he too succumbed to insider top-down campaign management when he had the opportunity to let the grassroots have a larger voice. He has done a wonderful job at mimicking the Dean campaign and would be my choice should Dean never had entered the race. But Dean did enter the race and is by all means very much quite in it still. Iowa hasn’t changed that.

So, in conclusion, I have to say that while I was in disbelief, I was depressed, and I was upset- I am not jumping ship because I believe in something bigger than Howard Dean. It is in our most critical hour of need that we, as a campaign and as Americans (because we are more than just Democrats anymore) remember why we got into all this in the first place and stand by our man and what we have built together.

Senate Democrats Start Blog

By Byron LaMasters

From the Roots: Pulling the Bush Out. So far, so good... it has posts from Sen. Debbie Stabenow and an introduction from Sen. Jon Corzine.

Via Political Wire.

Howard Dean: Now More Than Ever

By Jim Dallas

There has been, on this blog and elsewhere, some hesitancy to get behind Howard Dean after the (admittedly) stunningly awful performance the good doctor gave in Iowa on Monday. Although plenty of candidates have lost and Iowa and gone on to win the presidency (to name a few, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George Bush, and Bill Clinton), rarely has the loss been so stunning; and in the past the time-table has been a little more generous; there's little less than a week to fix the Dean Machine before the New Hampshire primaries next Tuesday.

It's my strongest conviction that now is not the time to flee. Indeed, it's time to support Howard Dean -- now more than ever.

It's easy to rattle off a list of the mistakes that the Dean campaign made in the closing days of the Iowa campaign. For example, the campaign's ads were terrible and uninspired. The message got muddled by a barrage of bad press and a candidate who was blissfully unaware of the fact that his position "on the ground" was slowly going to hell (trust me on this one; if you counted the number of supposed Dean supporters on my walk list who had Edwards or Kerry signs in their front yards - signs apparently put out in the closing weeks of the campaign -- you could see that things were going badly for Dean). Moreover, the ground organization was not capable of putting the thousands of volunteers that showed up for Dean to good use. Even veteran blockwalkers, such as myself, spent about half of the time trying to figure out where in the Lord's name we were (instead of knocking on doors). Better maps -- or even better, a local liaison, would have greatly improved the ground game.

But that's all spilled milk now, and it's time to move on. That was the tone of Dean's victory/concession speech on Monday night, and nobody at the Val Air ballroom there in Des Moines thought it was a joke.

In order to understand what really happened in Iowa, you have to look beyond the mistakes Dean made and recognize that Sens. Kerry and Edwards essentially had to "reinvent" themselves to make themselves palatable to Iowa voters.

Edwards pushed himself as the White Knight candidate who was above the fray. Moreover, Edwards seems to have drawn away much of Gephardt's support after Gephardt's "suicide bomber" strategy blew up in his face. Edwards simply managed to appeal to the Genteel Wing of the Democratic Party. And yet, Edwards' criticisms of the Bush administration seems to have ramped up considerably throughout the course of the campaign.

Kerry, in so many ways, attempted to co-opt Dean's message of reform while undermining Dean personally by pushing the story that Dean was a walking-time bomb. Kerry's ads called him a "fighter". Now where have we heard that before?

(Additionally, Kerry seems to have drawn the lions' share of the vote which might have otherwise gone to Wesley Clark. Should Kerry and Dean push Clark into third place - or worse - next week in New Hampshire, Clark's decision not to compete in Iowa should probably be considered to be one of the worst political blunders in modern history).

In short, Kerry out-Deaned Dean, in a sort of contrived, establishmentarian way. And the result was that the Good Doctor lost, in the eyes of so many voters, that edge of distinctiveness that had so marked his past success.

I support Howard Dean because I still recognize the difference between Dean and the rest of the pack; to wit, that the Good Doctor is a leader. While the Dean Machine was caught flat-footed by the repositioning of the Democratic field in the closing weeks of the Iowa campaign, let's not forget the fundamental relevance of that fact.

Luckily, it appears that Dean's ad folks have clued into this, with their newest ad.

I have to agree with Byron that the fallout from Iowa could be just what the doctor ordered for Howard Dean's campaign. In many ways, I think the campaign will benefit from a week of lowered expectations (and we can hope, lessened media scrutiny).

At any rate, for those doubters out there -- why is it that Dean is so bad, when all the other candidates are trying to be Howard Dean?

Dean Campaign Shifts Gears..

By Byron LaMasters

The new theme is A Doctor Who's Delivered. The slogan reminds me of George Bush's slogan change after he lost New Hampshire to "reformer" John McCain. Afterwards, going into South Carolina, he (well Karen Hughes and Karl Rove) proclaimed himself to be a "Reformer with Results". As for Dean, his new theme (like Bush's SC theme) is heavy on biographical detail and focused on policy. It's an improvement, to say the least, but I don't think it's enough. We'll see..

Update: Howard Dean has a new ad in New Hampshire. It focuses on leadership, civil unions and standing up for what's right (opposing the war, again). I think that the idea for the ad is right - Howard Dean is a leader and he's a "Doctor that has Delivered", but the focus is off. He should focus on issues that more people can resonate with. The anti-war ads backfired in Iowa, and while this is a softer version of those, it's nothing new, and will likely have the same effect. The "Democrats were Silent" text at the end of the ad is more of the negativity that didn't work for Dean in Iowa. Does the Dean campaign get it? While signing the civil unions law was courageous, Dean would probably get more traction with an ad touting his work for health care for Vermont and focusing on his personal biography and family.

Update 2: Jim likes Dean's new ad. I don't really think that it does the trick. My thoughts aren't as negative as what Maura in VA says in a kos diary, but I agree with her more than I agree with Jim on this.

Did Kerry / Edwards Go Negative in Iowa?

By Byron LaMasters

Some Dean supporters claim that they did. I met Anna of Annatopia this summer in Dallas at some Dean events. She writes that John Kerry was push polling and that the John Edwards campaign instucted their precinct captains to spread negative attacks against Dean and Kerry at their precinct caucuses. Anna was on the ground in Iowa, so these charges could very well be true, but then again, they could just be spin from the Dean campaign. Has anyone else heard of these?

Update: Ok, well ABC News confirms the Edwards negativity, but it's nothing that I really have a big problem with. Some people might, but Edwards doesn't say anything dishonest or inappropriate in my opinion. I don't think that it has any legs, but I could be wrong.

Anyone have more info on the claims against John Kerry's push polling?

Howard Dean Remixed!

By Byron LaMasters

Does anywhere have a complete list of the Howard Dean concession speech remixes? I think they're pretty funny. Here's the ones I can find:

Barlow Farms.

The Command Post.

a preponderance of evidence.

Yeagh (mp3 file).

FarmGolf.com: Howard Dean's Crazy Train (mp3 file).

Tex Aggie 79 (mp3 file).

Any more?

Voices For Choice Rally

By Byron LaMasters

Tomorrow at 5 PM on the UT Campus. Celebrate 31 years of a woman's right to choose:

Our rally on the West Mall at 5!

Speakers will include:
Lewis Black, Editor of the Austin Chronicle
Amy Hagstrom-Miller, CEO Whole Woman's Health
Dr. Jim Rigby, Pastor of St. Andrew's Presbyterian Church
Danielle Tierney, Director of Public Relations for Planned Parenthood of
Central Texas
Sarah Wheat, Director of Public Affairs for TARAL

We expect a great turnout, and every speaker will be excellent.

A Plug From D Magazine!

By Byron LaMasters

D Magazine, a magazine covering the city of Dallas has started a blog and they've given us a nice plug.

Here's a great blog on politics from the Democratic side, published by four students at UT, called, appropriately Burnt Orange Report. It has a fairly comprehensive listing of other political blogs in the state.

Thanks! And BTW, Charles Kuffner has the best list of Texas political blogs.

Huston-Tillotson YD's Rally

By Byron LaMasters

This evening I spoke at a rally at Huston-Tillotson College in East Austin. Huston-Tillotson College is a historically African-American College (although open to all races) which recently chartered a Texas Young Democrats chapter. Being the regional director for the area, I helped them get all the resources they needed, so their president, Andrew Bucknell invited me to speak at the rally. It was quite an honor to be up there speaking with a lot of elected officials. I just spoke for a few minutes about how young people have been getting involved recently. I used the evidence of how thousands of young people descended upon Iowa to support their candidate in the Iowa caucuses and how we've established a lot of new TYD chapters in the previous months as examples. I added that young people can't afford to not get involved - when our president lies about going to war, when our leaders in the legislature tell us they didn't raise taxes, yet they taxed every college student in the state of Texas with tuition deregulation, and then with redistricting - that it is a disgrace that in my 8 minute bike ride to campus every day I now travel through three congressional districts. I went on to tell the students that they could make a difference. That there were seven presidential campaigns and a whole lot of local candidates that could use their help in the primary and that we would need their help to have our countywide slate again sweep Travis County. I also put in a plug for our two state rep. candidates against Republican incumbents here in Travis County: Kelly White and Mark Strama.

Speaking of Mark Strama, he was at the event, and I had a chance to talk to him for a little while. He's also got his webpage up and running. If you have some money to donate, he has a PayPal account set up. Strama is running against Jack Stick who was elected in 2002 for the first time. Stick represents North Austin, yet voted for the congressional redistricting map that divided Travis County into three congressional districts, of which none has a majority of its voters residing in Travis County. It is very possible, that Travis County will have no hometown representative in Congress next year, and that would be devestating for us. Anyway, Strama is looking for volunteers, so get in touch with the campaign if you're interested. His race is likely to be one of the party's targetted races in the fall and Strama probably has about the best chance of any of our challengers to knock off a Republican incumbent.

There was an interesting subtext to the event as well. Originally Lloyd Doggett was going to attend, and then Leticia Hinojosa (his primary opponent in the new 25th) was interested (although not originally invited). State Rep. Dawnna Dukes spoke at the rally as Doggett's surrogate, and said how Doggett had fought for Huston-Tillotson and for Austin and it was critical that we re-elected him. Ne