Burnt Orange Report

Heck, maybe Newt is right

By Jim Dallas

Let's face it, we're not big friends of Newt Gingrich round these here parts.

But I've been intrigued by some of the former House speaker's recent projects regarding health care transformation.

Newt, who describes himself as a "Theodore Roosevelt Republican" when it comes to health, has helped to shove the Center for Healthcare Transformation into the limelight recently. And that's a good thing, I think, because the center's focus on the "big picture" of what is wrong with the health care "zone" (Newt claims health care is too disorganized to be called a "system", and I'm inclined to agree with that logic).

In any case, the AARP is pleased with Gingrich. Considering the AARP is usually a pretty strong supporter of everything Democratic, it's worth taking note of what the Executive Director of the AARP, William Novelli, wrote in the preface to Gingrich's book on health care transformation:

Gingrich believes that our healthcare system is beyond reform -- that it needs to be transformed into something totally different than it is today. "Reforming," Newt says, is the process of trying to make the current pattern work. "Transforming" is about developing new and very different patterns.

Volumes have been written about the problems with our healthcare system, and hundreds (if not thousands) of conferences are held every year with experts discussing how addressing a specific piece of the problem will improve the system. Yet, with all the talking and tinkering, costs continue to rise while quality care continues to decrease.

Newt Gingrich has never been one to tinker. He is a big idea person, and moreover, he has the ability to link big ideas into something even larger still. He believes it is time to focus the healthcare debate where it truly belongs -- on people's health. That is what Gingrich does in Saving Lives and Saving Money. The gap between the health and healthcare we should have and what we actually have is appallingly huge, and will only get larger if we don't transform the system. And, in the process of improving our health, the nation can also save billions of dollars if we make substantial changes in the way we practice health and health care.

Gingrich is proposing nothing less than dramatically changing one of the largest segments of our economy. His ideas for transforming the system are not academic theories. They are based on real-life examples of entrepreneurial changes people are making across the healthcare system throughout the country, and he offers specific examples to back up his claims and allow people to find out more.

Even if you're not inclined to agree with Gingrich on some of these grand-scheme-of-things notions, Democrats could be in serious trouble if President Bush (who has no health care agenda) seizes some of the CHT's rhetoric in an attempt to look bold and decisive (the way he "Greenwashed" his poor record on auto efficiency by promoting hydrogen-fueled cars in his last State of the Union address).

Alternatively, the idea of linking health care to national security (Newt talked a lot about bio-terrorism recently at a lecture on Medicare) could be a way for Democratic candidates to kill two birds with one stone.

Getting every American good health care is what we Democrats want. But we can't do it unless we look harder at cost containment. We can and should win on health care, but if we let the Republicans out-innovate us, we're going to be marching into a disaster.

ADDENDUM: In the here-and-now, I think it's worth pointing out that the sort of ideas looked at by the CHT -- improving health care integration, changing incentives by replacing Medicare deductibles with subsidies, special health care courts, etc. etc. -- provide a pretty strong indictment of the idea that malpractice suit caps such as those allowed by Prop. 12 aren't going to be enough to reduce the cost of malpractice insurance or health care generally. Newt pretty much admits this. Let's face the facts - Prop. 12 (by itself) probably won't do you or your family a tinkers' damn, while taking away your rights all the same.

Daily Texan on Prop 12

By Byron LaMasters

Yesterdays Daily Texan featured a column attacking Prop 12. By the same guy attacking Henry Bonilla. I really like this guy! Heh. It's a very well informed and well written column, so take a look, here.

Burnt Orange Report Endorsements: Props. 13 & 17

By Jim Dallas

Proposition 13 - No endorsement either way. Vote your conscience -- if you have one.

Proposition 17 - We endorse a "No" vote.

The Houston Chronicle has asked its readers to vote against both propositions, which relate to property tax freezes for seniors and disabled people. The Dallas Morning News suggests a "no" vote on 13 and a "yes" vote on 17. The Austin Chronicle suggests a "yes" on 13 and a "no" on 17.

There are good reasons to be concerned with property taxes, particularly for traditionally disadvantaged groups like senior citizens and those living with disabilities. Coming to a decision on these two ballot items was not easy, particularly given the fact that they were widely supported in the legislature.
HJR 21, the legislation proposing Prop. 17, was passed unanimously out of both House and Senate committees; and unanimously on the floors of both the House and Senate.

However, this is a very bad time for both state and local governments. Although supporters of Proposition 17 argue that the approximately $3 million in revenue tha local school districts would lose in 2004 could be made up from the Foundation School Fund (and, after all, $3 million works out to something like a dollar per student), the effect of the freeze will likely grow rapidly over time as taxes go up and as as more and more people register as disabled.

Moreover, the benefit to each person isn't likely to be all that substantial; the wording of the state Constitution (see Art. 8, §1-b(b))ties eligibility for the tax freeze under Prop. 17 to eligibility for federal disability insurance. According to the Social Security Administration, 257,000 Texans received disability payments in 2000; $3 million dollars spread over 257,000 Texans works out to $11.68 per disabled taxpayer, or just about enough to treat an average family of 4 to a McDonald's dinner on Christmas. And while the costs to education will grow and grow and grow as more people become disabled (and get their 4 Big Macs per year), the benefits won't - unless, of course tax rates continue to rise and rise past 2005.

But property taxes shouldn't rise any more in this state! Proposition 17 handily ignores the bigger problem of school finance by giving a small, band-aid-like break to a small group of people; and compounds that huge problem by taking even more money out of public education (and every dollar counts these days). While it's nice to see our state government trying to do something for disabled people, the logic behind this proposed amendment will end up disabling an entire generation of Texans by ignoring their pressing educational needs.

We suggest as an alternative that the state focus more on providing health services for all Texans (especially the disabled) instead of tossing out open-ended tax subsidies.

And doing something once and for all with our unwieldy school finance system.

Proposition 13 would allow city and county governments (as well as junior college districts) to freeze their local property tax rates for seniors and the disabled. While it also could lead to revenue shortfalls for local governments, the idea of letting localities make case-by-case decisions based on their local needs is better than the blanket, one-size-fits-all rule offered by Proposition 17. You know, power to the people and all that stuff.

Again, here are the BOR endorsements so far: YES on 10, 11 and 15; NO on 3, 8, 12, 17, 18 and 22; and WHATEVER on 13.

BOR Endorsement: YES on 15

By Byron LaMasters

Prop 15 reads:

The constitutional amendment providing that certain benefits under certain local public retirement systems may not be reduced or impaired.

Basically Prop 15 would prevent local governments from reducing retirement benefits promised to public servants such as firefighters and police officers. Retired public workers have worked hard for their retirement benefits and ought to be able to enjoy the benefits of retirement without having to worry about local governments cutting their benefits. A YES Vote on Prop 15 will help ensure that. We endorse a YES vote on Prop 15.

Again, here are the BOR endorsements so far: YES on 10, 11 and 15, NO on 3, 8, 12, 18 and 22.

Taco Bell Democracy

By Byron LaMasters

Live in California? You can VOTE in the Taco Bell Recall Poll. Arnold is winning, but neither Bustamante or McClintock are included, so it's certainly a little suspect (not to mention that's it's Taco Bell after all). But, hey it looks like fun! So if anyone in California wants to buy a Chalupa in my honor, I'd apreciate it (as they will be adding a Chalupa as a vote for Bustamante soon).

Found via ToT.

Wagons South!

By Jim Dallas

Two entries from The Nation and The American Prospect make the case that Democrats can win in the South (and among Christian conservatives) by talking about social justice and jobs:

The bottom line for Democrats should be clear: Fighting the next election on behalf of jobs, family farms, healthcare and education for all, a populist Democratic nominee could give George Herbert Hoover Bush a real race in a region that the GOP--and its media boosters--now take for granted.

The question of the day is, "how does the Democratic nominee campaign as a socially conservative bleeding-heart in the South, but as a socially liberal tightwad in the North?"

More on this later...

Bolton Gets the Boot

By Andrew Dobbs

I know that this happened on Tuesday but I'm just now finding some time to post on this news. Terrell Bolton, the first black police cheif in Dallas history was given his walking papers by City Manager Ted Benavides on Tuesday, causing an uproar among certain elements of the black community in Dallas. Bolton's four year stint as the top dog at DPD includes such shining accomplishments as having the worst crime rate in the nation, sending dozens of (presumably) innocent people to jail for posessing what turned out to be sheetrock crushed up to look like drugs, hiring a suspected murderer as a police officer and shamelessly playing the race card to keep a job he certainly didn't deserve. As happy as I am that someone who was so clearly not cut out for the job of Dallas Police Cheif got a pink slip the whole episode neatly illustrates all of the things that make me glad I moved down to Austin.

First, we must realize that in Dallas there is only one issue, race. No other issue is important because all issues are merely facets of the one issue. South and East Dallas council members run race-loaded and often crooked campaigns such as Black member Maxine Thornton-Reese's 1999 election against a white incumbent with the slogan "Vote for someone who looks like you." In North Dallas the candidates feed off of the racism and fear of its largely White electorate to win elections. As soon as any Black official is accused, legitimately or not, of corruption, the South Dallas self-declared, self-promoting "community activists" jump all over the White officials accusing them of racism. For example, Mayor Laura Miller, a White liberal, was the object of protests led by powerful Black County Commissioner John Wiley Price that included calling her by vulgar names in her front yard as her children were home because of her opposition to former Council Member Al Lipscomb. Lipscomb, who has been nominated to serve on a police oversight committee, has been convicted of federal corruption charges (the conviction was overturned on a technicality though the evidence is overwhelmingly against him).

Though it was the Hispanic City Manager, Ted Benavides, that actually fired the police chief (as the Mayor or Council cannot fire the cheif, only the City Manager can), most of the invective has been hurled Miller's way. One writer to today's Dallas Morning News called her "a sick and dangerous person." Another suggested that Benavides fire her instead, which is not only impossible but idiotic. Bolton's attorney says that the explanation for his firing was "Laura Miller told (him) so." The final claim is distinctly unlikely as Miller has been gunning for Benavides as much as Bolton and with a divided council he is fire-proof- she has nothing to coerce him to do anything. It is clear that this is yet another example of the race card being played against White politicians who were simply doing their job, or rather, not doing anything but getting the blame when another officer does their job. Not to be outdone in the stooping low department, Price and other city officials suggested that race riots would follow a Bolton firing. If so, they'll only be able to happen because an incompetent and poorly managed police department festered under Bolton's lack of leadership.

There are lessons to be learned from this episode. First, move to Austin- race really never seems to play a big part of our politics, we have Black and Hispanic council members and they are elected by a White electorate. We also have a great City Manager in Tobi Futrell. Barring that, Dallas MUST get rid of the City Manager system. The current Council of 14 members and the Mayor has to have a 2/3 vote to fire the City Manager so as long as 6 members are putting their race over their city Ted can kick back and relax and can let awful police cheifs like Bolton run amok. Currently, 7 members and Mayor Miller would have voted to fire Bolton, but they didn't have that power. Dallas is the largest city in America to use this antiquated system and it seems that they have outgrown its usefulness.

Finally, Miller might be able to get a two for one deal. Benavides fires Bolton and stirs up the rancor of the minority members who once formed a coalition to protect him. Miller and the North Dallas members join them in firing Benavides as this takes 10 votes, but then hire a new, Miller-ite manager as it only takes a simple majority to hire a manager (which the 7 N. Dallas members and Miller will make). For the longest time I've said that Benavides and Bolton should both get the axe and now, that just might happen without having to win a whole bunch of elections.

Race is a touchy subject and there are a lot of White politicians, including some on the Dallas City Council I'm sure, who are legitimately racist and are set on reducing the rights and status of minorities in America. But Black and Hispanic community leaders severely diminish their credibility when they rally around criminals like Lipscomb, racists like Thornton-Reese or incompetents such as Bolton simply because of the color of their skin. Dallas needs to update its charter, but more importantly, update its heart- a city with such a dramatic and devastating divide cannot do the great things it should. Bolton's departure is a step in the right direction, though we must weather a storm of short-sightedness before that becomes apparant to all.

Austin Chronicle Endorsements

By Byron LaMasters

Here are the Constitutional Amendment Endoresements by the Austin Chronicle. Their verdict?

Yes: Good Law, Even If Not Constitution-Worthy - Props 1, 7, 10, 21

Yes With Reservations: Probably Good Law, but Shouldn't Be in the Constitution - Props 6, 11, 13, 14

No, With Reservations: Questionable Law, but Not as Bad as Proposition 12 - 2, 9, 15, 16, 17

No. Bad Law. Bad, Bad Law. (But Still Not as Bad as Proposition 12) - 4, 5, 8, 18, 19, 20, 22

Hell, No! - 3, 12

Arnold: Orgies, Drugs, Fags and more sex

By Byron LaMasters

This ought to drive social conservatives crazy. I don't really have a problem with any of it. Even the gay stuff. He throws around "fag" a couple of times, but I don't see it used with hostility towards gays. The orgy stuff - as long as he didn't exploit women, then I really don't care what someone does in the privacy of their own home, or privacy of - wherever. But it's there. And social conservatives will have a choice to make. Is Arnold who they want to represent the Republican Party?

No On Recall, Yes on Bustamante.

Another Endorsement: YES on Prop 10

By Byron LaMasters

Prop 10 reads:

The constitutional amendment authorizing municipalities to donate surplus firefighting equipment or supplies for the benefit of rural volunteer fire departments.

Makes perfect sense to me. Larger population centers have a larger tax base and have a greater risk of high casualty and high economic loss fires. Thus, they'll have more up to date equipment. When they buy new equipment, rural and volunteer fire departments can surely use their old equipment. This amendment makes it easier for urban/suburban departments to get rid of unneeded and outdated equiptment as well as helping out rural / volunteer fire departments attain valueable resources. We endorse a YES Vote on Prop 10.

Again, here are the BOR endorsements so far: YES on 10 and 11, NO on 3, 8, 12, 18 and 22.

More Endorsements: NO on Props 8, 18 and 22

By Byron LaMasters

As promised, here are some more endorsements regarding the upcoming constitutional election on September 13th. Early voting started today. For a list of Early voting locations in Travis County, go here (PDF file). For early voting locations in Dallas, go here.

Prop 8 will read:

The constitutional amendment authorizing the legislature to permit a person to take office without an election if the person is the only candidate to qualify in an election for that office.

I don't like the idea of cancelling elections in any circumstance, even if it's uncontested. What about write-in candidates? Some argue that this would save money. If Republican majority were really interested in saving money with elections, they would have held this constitutional election on the first Tuesday in November when Houston is having their mayoral election. That would have saved all of the voting locations in Houston from having to pay for an extra election. But I can only conclude that Texas Republicans want to discourage voting. That's why they're holding this election in September when most people aren't thinking about voting, and that's why we have Prop 8. We endorse a NO Vote on Prop 8.

I oppose Prop 18 for the same reasons. It reads:

The constitutional amendment authorizing the Legislature to permit a person to assume an office of a political subdivision without an election if the person is the only candidate to qualify for an election for that office

We endorse a NO Vote on Prop 18.

And here is Prop 22:

When a public official enters active military duty, they must leave the office they hold. Proposition 22 would allow officials to retain their offices while in the military and allows the appointment of temporary replacements.

It seems nice and all. But who gets to appoint a temporary replacement? I might support an amendment that would allow the public official on active military duty to choose a temprorary replacement for him/herself. But the amendment fails to make that indication. I wouldn't want a Democrat on active military duty to be "temporarily replaced" by someone appointed by Gov. Perry (for example). So, while I think this prop has good intentions, I believe that it's flawed. If a public official is unable to serve for any reason, they ought to resign (I'm sure I'll get someone trying to draw a parallel to the Texas 11, here. My state senator Gonzalo Barrientos is serving the majority of his constituents just fine). Again, we endorse a NO Vote on Prop 22.

Anyway, here are the BOR endorsements so far: YES on 11, NO on 3, 8, 12, 18 and 22.

Freshman Cheat Sheet

By Byron LaMasters

Ok, Freshman (and prospective students and all). Need to know what the heck we mean when we talk about "the drag", the "six pack", "SMurF", the PCL or the West Mall? The Dean of Students has a fun webpage set up to help you out.

My Fair and Balanced Professor

By Byron LaMasters

"For FOX News to say they're fair and balanced is like Al-Jazeera saying they're fair and balanced"

- My Classical Civilization professor after noting that his class will be fair and balanced.

I like it already.

Hispanics Attack Henry Bonilla

By Byron LaMasters

In today's Daily Texan. A good Opinion column. We all know Henry Bonilla's real constituency. He's the Hispanic puppet for the white suburban Republican folks in northern Bexar County. He doesn't represent the Hispanics in his district:

Earlier this month, Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, of U.S. Congressional District 23, spoke in favor of congressional redistricting. Because Congressman Bonilla is Hispanic, his presence at the press conference was no doubt an endeavor on the part of Republicans to quell accusations GOP redistricting efforts are an attempt to dilute the political potential of 1.4 million Texas minorities, many of whom are Hispanic. With Lt. Gov. Dewhurst at Bonilla's side, the scene resembled that of a ventriloquist and his puppet - his little Hispanic puppet. When asked why he supposed most Latino organizations like League of United Latin American Citizens were opposed to redistricting, Congressman Bonilla said that such organizations do not speak for most Latinos.

"At least 99 percent of Hispanics in this state and in this country are not affiliated with LULAC or any of the other 'Hispanic' groups," Bonilla said.

In his attempt to further discredit these Hispanic organizations, Congressman Bonilla went on to say organizations like LULAC are "professional minority groups that are trying to inject their agenda into Texas politics."

Not only is the congressman's statistical support highly questionable, his statement about the nature of such groups is completely inaccurate. Most Hispanic groups like National Council de la Raza and LULAC are non partisan, nonprofit, grassroots organizations run primarily by volunteers. The entire survival of such organizations, in fact, depends upon their constituents - every day, civic-minded Hispanic citizens.

In regards to redistricting, Bonilla said he was concerned with the Hispanics who are "at issue," which are the Hispanics who are, as he said, "going to work" and "driving their kids to school." However, if one were to take a close look at the politics of Southwest Texas, one would see that 66 percent of Bonilla's constituency is Hispanic, and most of these people did not vote for him. Throughout the press conference Bonilla tried to present himself as the common man in touch with the sentiments of his community, yet he has opposed Hispanic interests on 84 percent of votes, according to the National Hispanic Leadership Agenda Congressional scorecard.

In response to Congressman Bonilla's remarks, LULAC National President Hector Flores ardently defended his organization and denounced Bonilla's credibility to speak on behalf of Latinos.

"Congressman Bonilla is out of touch with the needs of his constituents," Flores said. "In fact, a majority of Hispanic voters in his district consistently oppose him at the ballot box. To say that LULAC does not represent the Latino community and that we are a professional minority group who is trying to inject our own agenda into Texas politics is not only an insult to the Latino community, but also an insult to the intelligence of those who are fully aware of how Bonilla has consistently voted against Hispanic interests."

Now is a time when the Hispanic population in the U.S. has sky-rocketed to become this country's largest minority group, and many within the Latino community are making efforts at political consolidation and mobilization. The last thing Latinos need right now are so-called leaders like Henry Bonilla, who, in order to satisfy partisan objectives, are willing to go on the record in front of national media and portray Hispanics as apolitical, simple-minded, working stiffs.

In reality, after a long history of struggling with racial, cultural and language barriers, Hispanics are growing less and less fearful of the government and are becoming more inclined to demand their rights. People like Congressman Bonilla must realize Hispanics need and want leaders who believe they deserve a voice and who are going to look out for their interests.

Prop Updates

By Byron LaMasters

I'll be making endorsements on the remaining amendments shortly. So far, I have endorsed a NO vote on Prop 12, a YES vote on Prop 11 and a NO vote on Prop 3.

Stout Dem Blog has made endorsements on each amendment. I would tend to agree with him with most of his suggestions, but I want to research them more fully before I make a blanket endorsement.

The Curmundgeonly Clerk did a good overview of the controversial Prop 12, which is one of the amendments which Texans will vote on in the upcoming September 13th election. Once again, The Burnt Orange Report has endorsed a NO Vote on this Proposition. Curmudgeonly Clerk brings up an interesting point. He seems to be inclined to support the idea of caps on malpractice non-economic damages, but thinks that the amendment is too broad. Remember, Prop 12 would not only enable the legislature to cap non-economic damages in malpractice settlements, it would enable the legislature to limit non-economic damages in all areas of law.

The Curmundgeonly Clerk also did a good round-up of Texas bloggers on the topic. Grunt Doc argues in favor of Prop 12 because, well, "Doctors and my malpractice carrier are for it, and Trial Lawyers are against it". I would argue that instead of blaming trial lawyers, we should go after the malpractice insurance carriers that are artificially inflating rates. Off the Deep End has a little bit more of a creditable arguement. We do have an insurance crisis in this state, and Phil is right that "152 counties in Texas have no obstetrician, partly because OBs have higher malpractice premiums than other doctors". I would argue, however, that instead of a gut reaction to just blame the trial lawyers, we should actually look at the real problems. Insurance companies are artificially inflating their rates. And, a very, very small percentage of doctors (6%) are responsible for one-half of insurance payouts. The solution? Crack down on the insurance companies and get doctors to better discipline the very small percentage of doctors who are irresponsible. It's unfair that all doctors have to pay for this and if we decided to look at this problem constructively, I'm confident that a bipartisan agreement could be reached. Rangel MD probably makes the best arguements in favor of Prop 12 that I've read. I still stand by my endorsement, but if you're interested in reading a well-informed and thoughtful arguement in favor of Prop 12, check him out. And of course, there's the far right wing folks who remind us to be aware of Prop 12 opposition. I know... those darn liberal Democrats.

As for others opposing Prop 12, Begging to Differ has many of the same concerns that I have about the proposition - the vague wording, the odd date of the election, giving the right-wing legislature more power and the constitutional questions. A special thanks to Half the Sins of Mankind for their link to my endorsement Against Prop 12. They agree with me. Finally, The Sake of Arguement adds a little humor to the case against Prop 12. He points to a case where doctors removed a man's penis because they "removed his penis and testicles without consulting him after they mistakenly thought he had cancer." Well, it's not really funny. Seriously, I'd like more than $250,000 for my penis. I find it rather important, and value it at greater than $250,000. But that's just my opinion...

Finally, The Curmundgeonly Clerk points to some newspaper endorsements, which I'll go through at a later time. Anyway, I'm glad that The Curmundgeonly Clerk took the time to research blogger reaction to Prop 12. I guess I have some blogroll updating to do...

Someone Needs to do their Research before Posting Comments..

By Byron LaMasters

Mark Harden made the following comment to this thread:

The Staples map by no means stretched any Travis County district down to the Valley. See PLANC01151. This is the map your man Barrientos could have obtained for you had he not run off to New Mexico. Now he will be coming back to lord knows what map."

[...]

If you ignore the propaganda site linked here, and instead refer to the Official Maps of the Texas Legislature, you will see that Austin would share absolutely no part of any districts with ANY of these three cities [McAllen, San Antonio or Houston].

Have you yourself looked at the official proposed maps yet? They didn't make them publicly available for nothing.

I'm sorry, but maybe we're not looking looking at the same Official Maps of the Texas Legislature. The Staples map as amended was passed out of the Senate Jurisprudence Committee. The map is Plan C01327. Take a look at it. You know Mark, I even saved a copy of the UT area for your convenience. As you'll notice, the actual University of Texas would be placed in Lamar Smith's 21st district (San Antonio). However, the Baseball field over on the other side of I-35 would be in the new 25th District which, yes, would extend all the way down to the Valley. Finally, my apartment, which a mile north of UT on 38th Street would be in the 10th district dominated by suburban Houston. Who would represent UT on this map, Mark? No one.

Bowling for Michael Moore

By Jim Dallas

I finally got around to seeing Michael Moore's Academy-award-winning documentary Bowling for Columbine.

Even conservative critics acknowledged that the film is hilarious; but the NRA wasn't happy. They complained that use of video shot at a NRA convention in North Carolina was inappropriately presented as footage at the NRA meeting in Denver held shortly after the Columbine tragedy. This is (technically) a legitimate gripe, although it's not particularly uncommon for television news broadcasters to use stock footage and I don't think it seriously undermines Moore's point.

But most of the NRA's fire is reserved for a segment which ties the explosion of gun ownership in the 19th century to racism:

Another outrageous sequence in Moore`s supposedly "non-fiction motion picture," tries to associate NRA with the Ku Klux Klan and depicts an NRA member assisting in a Klan cross burning. The rationale? NRA was founded in 1871—the year the KKK was declared an illegal organization. The absurd connection is intentional. It`s Michael Moore`s idea of humor.

An honest documentary would record that NRA was founded by former Union Army officers who fought a war to bring an end to slavery. It would record that Civil War veteran Maj. Gen. Ambrose Burnside was the Association`s first president. It would record that the man who signed the act making the Klan an illegal organization later became NRA`s eighth president—Ulysses S. Grant.

A true documentary would note that NRA`s early history was written by figures who had not only fought to end slavery, but who would later oppose the persecution of freedmen. Such a man would assume command of the Fifth Military District, and he would then remove governors in Texas and Louisiana for failing to oppose the KKK. That man later became NRA`s ninth president—Gen. Philip H. Sheridan.

To be clear, the line connecting the NRA to the Ku Klux Klan might be gratuitous. But it probably isn't as far from the truth as the NRA wants to admit; lots of Union soldiers were racists (and let us not forget that the Klan was not just anti-black but more broadly neo-Confederate; one could be a racist but against the Klan simply by virtue of being a Damnyankee or "scalawag"). And just because the organization had presidents like Burnside, Sheridan, and Grant doesn't exactly prove that its members were squeaky-clean.

But in any case, the fact that the NRA seizes upon one flippant joke in one of the film's lighter scenes shows, I think, just how desperate they are. The larger point made by the "Brief History of the United States" cartoon is that white culture in the United States has been incredibly paranoid and fearful. And in general, this is spot on.

(One might also suppose that the NRA - of which Michael Moore is a lifetime member - might be grateful that the film explicitly points out that some of the first gun control laws were racist attempts to disarm the black community.)

It's also downright silly to deny that white racism is partly to blame for America's fascination with guns. Many gunowners (and particularly the worst ones, in my experience) are ones who think that owning a gun will protect them from the "criminal element" (Warning! Racially Loaded Term!) of society.

In order to check this idea, I did some back-of-the-envelope data analysis using GSSDirs, an incomparable research tool which allows University Web users to analyze data from NORC's General Social Survey. True to my expectations:

• Gun- owners are more likely to support racial segregation than non-owners.

• White gun-owners are considerably less likely to say that they are "close" to blacks. Indeed, according to my analysis, white gun owners are equally likely to espouse racist (49.5%) and non-racist (50.5%) attitudes toward blacks; only a third of non-gun owners admit to not liking black people.

• Gun owners (and especially white gun owners) tend to say they feel safer in their community than non-gun owners (despite clear evidence that guns provide a false sense of security).

I don't mean, of course, to cast any aspersions on the majority of gun owners, who, I think we can be sure, are not closet racists. Indeed, most gunowners and many NRA members are genuine sportsmen.

Overall, I think, Bowling is a fair treatment of the issue which plays to neither gun-rughts or gun-control ideologues. I think it is one of the best pieces in recent years to show just how foolish the gun-control ninnies are - after all, Canada has lots of guns but very few murders. The problem is clearly cultural - but not the kind of "pop culture" red herrings conservatives and Joe Lieberman whine about. It calls the NRA and Charlton Heston for their clear insensitivity towards gun victims.

Incidentally, the NRA thinks that Bowling is "un-American" because, in short, it dares to argue that the reason everyday Americans keep killing each other with guns is... because there's something wrong with the way everyday Americans think and act.

So much for "Guns don't kill people, People kill People!"

Again - I happen to believe that the right to own a firearm is an important Constitutional right and that further gun control legislation is wrong. But, I also happen to think that private groups like the NRA (and more importantly, the government) are not doing enough to push gun safety, individual responsibility, and a strong community ethic.

Redistricting Updates from Off the Kuff

By Byron LaMasters

Yeah, I'm just getting back into the routine, here in Austin, so I'll be back to covering the details of the redistricting fight soon, but for now, Charles has great coverage. Today, the Democratic lawsuit saying that Republicans intent to change the two-thirds rule was a violation of the Voting Rights Act was considered to be a poor case by a federal judge, but it will be reviewed by a three judge panel anyway.

Charles also has all the details about the Democratic senators planned and cancelled trip to Laredo, the ruling from the Justice Department and the latest polling numbers across the state. So check it out over there.

This is what Constituent Service Looks Like

By Byron LaMasters

Much of redistricting has been a partisan battle between Democrats and Republicans. Democrats talk about precedent, minority voting rights, and argue that the current district lines which favor Republicans in 20 out of 32 seats are more than fair. Republicans on the other hand argue that they're the majority and their is nothing inapropriate about trying to expand their majority through mid-decade redistricting so that they can better advance their Bush/Republican agenda in Congress. Those have been the battle lines.

But Republicans often forget that it's about more than that. If Republicans get their way, they win and Democrats lose. Fine. But constituent service loses, too. Yesterday, I wrote about the Ratliff Republicans who generally lean conservative, but care more about rural issues such as timber and water than they care about the party affilation of their congressman. The letter from our Congressman Lloyd Doggett in today's Daily Texan welcoming Longhorns (back) to campus is what constituent service is all about. Doggett is a liberal Democrat. I know it, I admit it. But find me one thing in this letter that is about advancing a liberal Democratic agenda. If Republicans get their way in redistricting, we lose this type of constituent service. Regardless of your political affiliation, Lloyd Doggett is a powerful voice for students at the University of Texas. If students have a concern about financial aid, for example, there is one congressman to contact to help. The University of Texas matters to Lloyd Doggett and the 10th district. With about 50,000 students and tens of thousands more in faculty and staff, the UT community is a significant constituency of the 10th Congressional District. Republicans want to destroy our constituency and punish us because we vote Democratic.

Anyway, here is Doggett's letter, a letter which we would not receive from a Democratic or Republican Congressman from McAllen, San Antonio or Houston (where Austin's representatives would likely live under GOP redistricting maps).

Welcome back to another exciting year at the University of Texas. Every fall, my thoughts always turn to the 40 Acres and the thousands of students who will start filling up the classrooms and gathering around the Mall. The University has been an important part of my life almost since birth. I grew up in the shadow of the Tower and earned my first real paycheck as a summer dishwasher and errand runner for the Botany Department. Later, as an undergraduate in the School of Business and then as a law school student, I met some of the finest people anywhere - including my wife, Libby. I developed my interest in public policy at the University, where I served as Student Government president.

I will never forget my wonderful years at UT, and I hope your experience will be equally fulfilling. You are lucky to be attending one of the best universities in the world and living in one of the finest cities anywhere.

Please know that I am here to work constructively on matters of importance to the UT community. From tax relief for teaching assistants to improving student financial assistance, I serve as an advocate for the concerns of students, faculty and staff. I have also actively promoted fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget, environmental protection, and policies that encourage economic growth and job creation like an unfettered Internet.

Regardless of your career plans, government affects you. I hope that, as a student, you will choose to get involved with government and public service in your community. There is a wide range of community service opportunities and philosophically diverse political organizations, both on campus and in the community, with which you can get involved.

Both my district office in Austin and my congressional office in Washington provide year-round internship opportunities for students who have an interest in government and want to learn about the inner workings of a congressional office. Internships should be coordinated through the office in which you wish to work. It is a great source of pride that many of my permanent staff are University of Texas graduates.

As the congressman of and for the University, I invite you to visit my Web site at www.house.gov/doggett where you can find the following helpful information:

Austin information and web links: You can explore my hometown of Austin by visiting the About the 10th District section of my Web site. There are several links to help folks learn about Austin's media outlets, civic organizations, community service opportunities, government and culture.

Student financial assistance information: I strongly believe that all students should be able to get all of the education for which they are willing to work. While I fight in Congress to make more student financial aid available, you can find several financial aid resources on my Web site by clicking on the "Constituent Services" button and "Information for Students" to find several financial aid resources.

Ways to communicate with me: From my Web site, you can fill out an electronic survey on some of the important issues being considered in Congress, or you can send me an e-mail about issues that are important to you. I want to hear from you in order to make sure your priorities are my priorities in Washington. My Austin office can be reached at (512)916-5921 and my Washington office phone number is (202) 225-4865. My staff in both cities are ready to assist you. Additionally, I hold Neighborhood Office Hours several times a year at locations throughout Travis County. I encourage you to attend one of these events so that I can meet you personally.

Information on legislation pending in Congress: Enter the "About the 10th District" section to find web links for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, all federal agencies, and Thomas, the Library of Congress' Web site containing information about bills introduced in Congress, Congressional schedules, and information in the Congressional Record. You can also look up your Representatives at the Texas Legislature by clicking on the "Who Represents Me?" link.

My office stands ready to assist you in matters of a federal nature. Have a safe, productive and memorable year here at the University of Texas.

Hook 'em, Horns!

Rep. Doggett represents the 10th district, which includes the University.

Freshman Diaries in Person

By Byron LaMasters

I may just go to this. I blogged on the show earlier, here. Anyone want to go with me?

Emmy Award-winning executive producer R.J. Cutler and Showtime go to college with “Freshman Diaries”

Free sneak preview screening of the first episode of Showtime’s “Freshman Diaries,” a documentary television series focusing on the lives of University of Texas at Austin freshmen produced on campus from September 2002 to May 2003. The series premieres on Showtime, Sunday, Aug. 31.

The 12 University of Texas at Austin students starring in the documentary will be on hand, along with Emmy Award-winning executive producer and director R.J. Cutler, to introduce the documentary and answer questions. The series follows the lives of a group of students from move-in day to finals, taking the audience on a journey of what it means to be an adult for the very first time.

The shooting style is pure documentary filmmaking; the aim—to become part of the woodwork. Tiny crews of just two or three people closely follow the day-to-day lives of the students. Small cameras and minimal sound gear is used, and there is never any lighting, cables or heavy equipment whatsoever. The filmmakers pride themselves on being unobtrusive and consider it critical that they impact the environment in which they work as minimally as possible.

The sneak preview screening is sponsored by the College of Communication, the Department of Radio-Television-Film and The University of Texas Film Institute

Free sneak preview screening tickets will be available starting Wednesday, Aug. 27 at the Student Events Center ticket office on the fourth floor of the Texas Union (room 4.300). First come, first serve. A University of Texas ID is required. Limit two tickets per person.

WHEN: 6 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 28

WHERE: Texas Union Theater, The University of Texas at Austin

The Ratliff Republicans: Endangered but Alive

By Byron LaMasters

Some of my more conservative readers would argue that a "Ratliff Republican" is a RINO (Republican in Name Only). But they exist. These folks are moderates and conservatives who split their ticket. Rural east Texans who vote may have previously been Democrats, but now generally vote Republican. They vote for Sen. Bill Ratliff but also support their moderate to conservative congressmen in Max Sandlin, Jim Turner and Ralph Hall. They also support similarly moderate to conservative Democratic state representatives such as Barry Telford, Chuck Hopson, Mark Homer, Jim McReynolds, Dan Ellis, etc.

So what's my point? Both Democrats and Republicans in East Texas generally win because they're moderates. Ratliff has sided with Democrats in this redistricting battle, not because he is shunning the Republican Party, but because he knows that mid-decade redistricting is not only unprecidented, but that it's bad for the rural water and timber interests of his state senate district. And both the Republicans and the Democrats in his district realize that. That's why, if Bill Ratliff runs for re-election, I doubt that he'll have much trouble. Why? He sided with Democrats in redistricting in 2001, because it was the best thing for his state senate district. It cost him the chance to run for a full term as Lt. Gov, but it didn't hurt him at all in his district. Republicans went all out to defeat Bill Ratliff in the 2002 Republican Primary. They ran former state representative Jerry Yost against him who was supported by the Young Conservatives of Texas and Free PAC (yeah, the guys who unsuccessfully attacked "RINOS" in the 2002 GOP primary with gay-baiting political pornography direct mail pieces). So what happened? Ratliff beat Yost by a margin of better than two to one:

Yeah, and Democrats like Ratliff, too. He votes for his district, not for his party (just like Democratic congressmen elected in GOP districts: Max Sandlin, Jim Turner, Ralph Hall, Chet Edwards and Charlie Stenholm), so he didn't have any trouble in the general election.

My point, however, is that Republicans can complain all they want about Ratliff. But the fact is -- he's popular in his district. Most rural east Texas Republicans care more about having their Democratic or Republican state rep/state senator/congressman fight for their water rights and their timber rights and having someone that represents their rural values than they care about being represented by a lockstep suburban Republican who won't take their interests to heart.

Back in Austin

By Byron LaMasters

Well, I'm back in Austin now, too. I'm in my very bare apartment that I moved into today (my parents will be coming up on Saturday to help me move all my stuff in here). I start classes again at 10 AM tomorrow. I realized this afternoon that the computer I'm using which my dad built me over the summer (his new hobby is building computers, which is great with me) didn't have a dial up modem connection. It just had the DSL line. Well, I won't be getting my cable/DSL modem stuff set up for a week, so I got a little hyper. But I calmed down, bought a dial-up modem at CompUSA, went to a meeting, then went home and installed the thing. So, now I have a (very slow) internet connection. Nonetheless, I'm basically back to normal blogging, so you can all dance in the streets.

More evidence we invaded the wrong country

By Jim Dallas

The Guardian reports that UN inspectors have found evidence of highly-enriched weapons-grade uranium in.... Iran.

You know, the junior member of the Axis of Evil.

VIENNA, Austria (AP) - U.N. inspectors found traces of highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium at an Iranian nuclear facility, a report by the U.N. nuclear agency says. Iran said Tuesday the traces came with equipment purchased abroad decades ago.

The find heightened concerns that Tehran may be running a secret nuclear weapons program.

Agency inspectors found ``particles'' of highly enriched uranium that could be used in a weapons program at the facility at Natanz, said the report prepared for a meeting of the U.N. agency's board Sept. 8 in Vienna. Contents of the report were made known to The Associated Press by diplomats who requested anonymity.

The United States has accused Iran of developing a clandestine nuclear weapons program, violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty barring the spread of atomic weapons.

Iran has denied the allegations, insisting its programs are devoted only to generating electricity.

Ali-Akbar Salehi, Tehran's ambassador to the IAEA, said the equipment was ``contaminated'' with enriched uranium before it was purchased by Iran.

Salehi told AP the equipment in question was ``brought many years ago from intermediaries'' and so it was impossible to name the countries of origin.

Iran strongly insists it doesn't have a nuclear program.

Poll: Texans oppose redistricting, but aren't happy with Dems either

By Jim Dallas

The Dallas Morning News reports:

The latest posturing came as a new Texas Poll suggests that the public is divided over redistricting.

According to the poll, 46 percent of respondents didn't think that congressional maps should be redrawn, while 40 percent felt redistricting was a good idea.

The poll found that Texans overwhelmingly disagreed with the Democrats' decision bolt to New Mexico. Sixty-two percent disagreed with the action, while 29 percent agreed.

About 46 percent of respondents faulted Mr. Perry's decision to call a second special session, compared with 44 percent who supported it.

The poll, conducted by the Scripps Data Center, surveyed 1,000 Texans on Aug. 7-21. The margin of error was 3 percentage points, meaning the results may vary by that much either direction.

Although Democrats have talked tough about staying in Albuquerque "as long as it takes" to kill redistricting, the Senate Democratic Caucus has not decided whether to return for a third special session or continue the boycott.

The "Texas 11" are coming to another critical juncture - whether to sit out a third special session on redistricting, which Gov. Perry may call as early as today; Democrats have previously indicated they might return for it.

Columbia panel releases final report on accident

By Jim Dallas

The Columbia Accident Investigation Board released its final report on the disintegration of the Space Shuttle Columbia this morning. The 248-page report can be found here.

If even a few of the Board's recommendations are adopted, there will be major repercussions in the way NASA is run (and indirectly, the economy of the Houston area).

The Board's press release pretty nicely summarizes the report --

The CAIB report concludes that while NASA's present Space Shuttle is not inherently unsafe, a number of mechanical fixes are required to make the Shuttle safer in the short term. The report also concludes that NASA's management system is unsafe to manage the shuttle system beyond the short term and that the agency does not have a strong safety culture.

The Board determined that physical and organizational causes played an equal role in the Columbia accident - that the NASA organizational culture had as much to do with the accident as the foam that struck the Orbiter on ascent. The report also notes other significant factors and observations that may help prevent the next accident.

The Board crafted the report to serve as a framework for a national debate about the future of human space flight, but suggests that it is in the nation's interest to replace the Shuttle as soon as possible as the primary means for transporting humans to and from Earth orbit.

It cannot be stressed enough how much the report emphasizes a lack of national leadership (for well over 30 years) in being an institutional cause of the Columbia tragedy; much of Part II and Part III of the report is a siren call for more funding and serious, Apollo-like goals:

Since the 1970s, NASA has not been charged with carrying out a similar high priority mission that would justify the expenditures of resources on a scale equivalent to those allocated for Project Apollo. The result is the agency has found it necessary to gain the support of diverse constituencies. NASA has had to participate in the give and take of the normal political process in order to obtain the resources needed to carry out its programs. NASA has usually failed to receive budgetary support consistent with its ambitions. The result, as noted throughout Part Two of the report, is an organization straining to do too much with too little. - Page 209

As a matter of political reality, the Board suggests that the Space Shuttle be replaced with a more reliable means of accessing low-earth orbit in the near-to-medium term (a program which the Bush administration killed a couple years ago). The report says that "previous attempts to develop a replacement vehicle for the aging Shuttle represent a failure of national leadership. (211)"

Back in Texas

By Byron LaMasters

I'm back in Texas. The NYC trip was great. Currently, I'm packing to move back to Austin. I'll be heading back there in an hour or two (from Dallas). Hopefully, I can get my computer set up and get an internet connection in my new apartment, even if I have to use my AOL account and a phone line for a day or two (I know, that's so 1990s, right?).

Finally, I must say that I'm happy to learn that my state senator and 10 of his colleagues are still in New Mexico. I voted for Sen. Barrientos because he represents my views and fights for his constituents. So, needless to say, I'm still a happy constituent (I guess I always have this fear that when I'm away from news for several days, something crazy will happen).

Update: Two down, ____ to go....

So it's official, I'm a "Dean-y-bopper"

By Jim Dallas

Just returned from Howard Dean's San Antonio "Sleepless Summer" rally. The official crowd estimate was 3,500, although it could have been higher or lower. In my humble opinion, there were about as many people there as there were on the floor of the state Democratic convention in El Paso last year (which was about 3,000 plus or minus a thousand). The crowd also raised at least $17,000.

State Reps. Ruth Jones McClendon, Michael Villareal, and Eddir Rodriguez (all "Killer Ds") endorsed Dean.

Dean's speech hit on many of his standard stump speech talking points (for several minutes Andrew was able to recite word-for-word what Dean was going to say about health care reform).

But it alsoincluded an interesting tangent about building schools instead of prisons, which incidentally brought back vague memories of the Nader campaign.

On the other hand, it also included a discourse on why Dean feels he would be tougher on national defense than Bush ("He spent three trillion on givin tax breaks to Enron instead of fully funding homeland security," etc.). Which was nice.

Dean even cracked a joke about odd it was for a bunch of Texas Democrats to be applauding him on his balanced-budget pitch (which received some of the loudest applause of the night).

The energy was amazing. Let's leave it at that.

Update (via BlogforAmerica): The report filed by the San Antonio Express News.

Remember the dead and work like hell for the living...

By Jim Dallas

From a friend, "Obituary backs 'removal of Bush'" --

When Sally Baron's family wrote her obituary, they described a northern Wisconsin woman who raised six children and took care of her husband after he was crushed in a mining accident.

She had moved to Stoughton seven years ago to be closer to her children and was 71 when she died Monday after struggling to recuperate from heart surgery. Her family had come to the question of what might be a fitting tribute to her.

"My uncle asked if there was a cause," her youngest son, Pete Baron, said.

Almost in unison, what her children decided to include in the obituary was this: "Memorials in her honor can be made to any organization working for the removal of President Bush."

"She thought he was a liar," Baron's daughter, Maureen Bettilyon, said. "I think his personality, just standing there with that smirk on his face, and acting like he's this holy Christian, that's what really got her."

Bettilyon, who lives in Stoughton, said her mother didn't trifle with petty neighborhood squabbles but was attuned to significant policy-making at all levels.

"She'd always watch CNN, C-SPAN, and you know, she'd just swear at the TV and say 'Oh, Bush, he's such a whistle ass!' She'd just get so mad," Bettilyon said.

The full obituary can be found here.

Back in Austin, an itinerary

By Jim Dallas

I'm back in Austin, which means broadband internet access as well as being in the "thick of it" again.

I'm planning on going down to see Dean's speech in San Antonio tomorrow.

Until then I'm going to unpack and clean up the apartment, and start looking for a job.

Hasta mañana,

Jim.

Text of Republican Ad Attacking Hinojosa

By Byron LaMasters

Last week Texas Republicans ran an ad in heavily Mexican accented English attacking Sen. Hinojosa in South Texas. Here is the transcript of the ad as provided from his office (via Mike):

I went to Sen. Hinojosa's office today and I did pick up a transcript of the
commercial, here it is typed out by me.

Paid for by the Republican Party of Texas

I solemnly swear that i Will faithfully execute the duties of the office of
Senator of the State of Texas

That is the same oath of office that senator Chuy Hinojosa took in January

Now, Senator Hinojosa is hiding from his duties in New Mexico

The El Paso Times calls it a betrayal of constituent trust and says Senator
Hinojosa elected to play politics with items vital to the state.

Unfortunately Senator Hinojosa has a record of breaking our trust.

He tried to weaken sex offender registration laws.

He opposed schoolchildren reciting the pledge of allegiance

He supports a law with criminals to lie in court to protect themselves

He even voted against increasing state education and healthcare spending by
more than a million dollars each.

With his record, maybe we are better off if Senator Hinojosa stays in New
Mexico

Call Senator Hinojosa's at 956.872.1841 and let him know that he's betrayed
our trust

There it is.

Hi from NYC

By Byron LaMasters

Just wanted to say hi from NYC. I'm at an Internet Cafe in Times Square. Although I had some trouble getting the ticket machine to take my change, I made it. Yesterday, several of us went to the WTC site. It was quite an experience, and I'll write about it when I get back. Anyway, I'm looking forward to another two days here before I return on Monday.

Update: Speaking of NYC, I am currently in a congressional district represented by a Congressman supporting Howard Dean. I know, only a dork would think of something like that. Heh.

Perry Pardons A-Go-Go

By Jim Dallas

The Austin American Statesman is reporting that Gov. Perry has pardoned 35 people from Tulia who were wrongfully accused of pushing dope.

Calling the Texas justice system "tough but fair," Perry wipes clean the slate for these folks. Unfortunately, most of them already spent their time in jail. Thirteen others were released from prison earlier this year.

Tough, yes. Fair... well we'll get to that.

The other 25 pardoned were mostly older folks who committed minor crimes in their teenage years, and have long since paid their debts to society.

In any case, the Tulia debacle is now basically over, removing a big ugly stain from our state's integrity. Thank goodness for that.

Update: Sigh... a review of the facts indicates that pardon forms for the Tulia 35 have been sitting on Gov. Perry's desk for nearly a month, despite unanimous recommendations from the Pardons board and the consensus of just about every thinking person on the planet.

I want my three-and-a-half weeks back.

And now, back to non-stop coverage of the Texas 11...

Off Year Elections and What they Mean

By Andrew Dobbs

Alright, so everybody seems to be all tied up on the California Recall and the 2004 Presidential race, but there are 4 other elections in the very near future that will be indications of how well Democrats can expect to do in 2004 and what messages might work for us.

First, on September 9 Alabama voters go to the polls to vote on whether or not to raise their own taxes. Funny thing is, the conservative Republican governor- Bob Riley- is the man pushing this tax hike. If this ballot measure passes, even in right-wing Alabama, it will suggest that people are valuing services over cost at this point. If a tax raise can be passed in Alabama then a strong anti-tax cut message can work all over the country.

Secondly, on September 13 Texas votes on constitutional amendments. Usually a dull affair with little importance there will be one hitch this year. Proposition 12 is a ballot line that empowers the legislature to go through with tort reform. They probably don't need constitutional authorization to do it anyways, this is a CYA affair, but it doesn't matter as it will almost certainly pass very easily. Having worked for a legislator this year the calls and letters were easily 10 to 1 in favor of tort reform because doctors have convinced their patients it is a good thing. Problem is it doesn't only affect doctors: anybody who wants to sue anybody for any reason will face more of a challenge now as the law is rigged against plaintiffs and in favor of big businesses. If by some chance this were to fail it would be a significant message of opposition to the Texas GOP but there seems to be little to no active opposition so we can bet that the Texas Dems won't use this as a referendum on Perry's sliding popularity. Another opportunity wasted...

Thirdly, on October 4 is the Louisiana governor's election. In Louisiana they don't have primaries- all the Republicans and all the Democrats run at once and if no one gets a majority the top two vote getters have a runoff. In Louisiana the Democrats have at least 2 very strong candidates- current Lt. Gov Kathleen Blanco and long time AG Richard Ieyoub. The best thing going for the GOP is Bobby Jindal- a 31 year old former Bush administration official with the support of 3-term GOP governor Mike Foster and most of the Bush machine. He might not even make it into second place. Right now Blanco has a healthy lead of about 6-10 points but after that it is a dead heat between Ieyoub and Jindal with one-time congressman Buddy Leach and former state Senate President Randy Ewing (both Democrats) close behind. If the runoff is between two Democrats it will signal to the rest of the country that even a state where Bush is popular won't just swallow his word hook, line and sinker. Democrats will be encouraged to go to not only tossup states, but states where Bush is expected to win but isn't overwhelmingly popular- Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Tenneseee, Ohio, West Virginia, Arizona, Nevada and Florida to name a few.

Next comes the California Recall on October 7. I think that there is a lot out there about this already, but basically we'll find out if budget mismanagement and cockamamied energy policies are enough of a reason to kick someone out of office. Here's hoping, as the chief executive of all the United States has shown incompetence in these matters on a scale that dwarfs any mere governor.

Finally we have election day on November 4 which will include the Louisiana runoff and statewide races in Kentucky and Mississippi.

In Kentucky I think that the Democrats should already be perking up. Bush easily won KY in 2000, and he has a 70% approval rating there. The Democratic incumbent governor has been plagued with scandal. Even with a two term AG running as the Democrats' nominee there is no reason he should be even close to the lead. Add into this that he is running a staunchly anti-Bush campaign. He should be pissing off at least 70% of the people in his state, but Democrat Ben Chandler is running even or only a point or two behind GOP Congressman Ernie Fletcher. He has a bold proposal to create 100,000 jobs before his first term is up. If an aggressive message and grand vision can keep us even in a state where Democrats are in shambles and Bush is king then why wouldn