Burnt Orange Report

Yeah! A rally is exactly what we need. But why wait a couple of weeks. We need it sooner rather than later to show our support.

the majority Hispanic population of Laredo would be dominated by the majority Anglo Bexar County suburban vote for the remainder of the decade.

You say this would be a result of the new map? The district as now configured already includes both Bexar County and Laredo...and, even so, elected a Hispanic Congressman. So (1) the map you fear is not much different, apparently, than the one already in place and (2) fears of minority domination by Anglos are obviously unmerited.

My husband, who used to work for Z, forwarded the rally announcement to me, noting that the person listed as the contact for the event was a long-time Z staffer. Looks like Z coordinated the rally rather than it being a spontaneous local thing.

The new map splits Webb county. Half in the 25th, and the other half in the 23rd. Former Rep. Chick Kazen D-Laredo is turning in his grave.

Mark - The Anglo suburban San Antonio vote outvotes the Laredo Hispanic vote now, but by the end of the decade Laredo will likely outvote San Antonio unless Webb County is split in half. Anyway, Henry Bonilla isn't protected under the Voting Rights Act as he is not the choice of the majority of the Hispanic voters in that district. He's the choice of the majority of the Anglo voters in that district.

Henry Bonilla isn't protected under the Voting Rights Act as he is not the choice of the majority of the Hispanic voters in that district. He's the choice of the majority of the Anglo voters in that district.

The VRA purports to distinguish between votes FOR minorities and votes BY minorities? Do you have a cite? I find this...unlikely, given that in the recent gubernatorial election, no one could even agree on how many Hispanics voted for Perry and for Sanchez (in fact, the competing figures disagreed by millions of votes)...so I doubt the mechanism is in place to quantify the voting by race sufficiently to support the VRA on that basis. Now, a simple counting of votes for and against a minority conaddiate, I can believe that.

[Credit my effort at reasoned debate: I did not point out the bigoted presumption that Bonilla is "not Hispanic enough"]

Mark - I'll look into citing it. I believe that one of the lawyers at the TLC said what I said in my comment during debate in the Senate Committee. I don't have the citation for it, though, and if I get around to it, I'll go through the hours of testimony to look for it. It's not on my high priority list, however.

No, there is no way to undisputedly count the Hispanic vote. We've both seen Hispanic vote numbers all over the place and no one really knows what they are. Still, upon looking at a county-by-county canvass of the 2002 CD 23 vote returns, and crossing them with the percentage of Hispanic surnames in that county, I think that it would be impossible to conclude anything other than that Herny Bonilla won the vast majority of the White vote and that Henry Cuellar won the vast majority of the Hispanic vote.

No, there is no way to undisputedly count the Hispanic vote.

I have no doubt that Cuellar received a majority of the Hispanic vote over Bonilla. But conceding that Hispanic voting is impossible to identify, makes a logical case for refuting any assertion that "Henry Bonilla isn't protected under the Voting Rights Act as he is not the choice of the majority of the Hispanic voters in that district."

And Bonilla undoubtedly received the votes of a significant number of minorities...are their rights under the VRA moot because their candidate was not the one who supposedly turned out to be the majority choice of minorities overall? Like you, I don't have time to educate myself on the intricacies of the act, but it is illogical to consider that it takes into account actual votes by minorities rather than the pattern of results...or that it makes a distinction between minority politicians based on their ideology.

The Anglo suburban San Antonio vote outvotes the Laredo Hispanic vote now, but by the end of the decade Laredo will likely outvote San Antonio unless Webb County is split in half.

The demographics of this make sense. But, presuming the "other half" of Webb County would go Democrat anyway, would it not be simpler for the Republicans to just cut Webb completely out of the district? Or do they want to keep their hand in play in Laredo? What a mess...