| The latest poll comes from a coalition of five Texas newspapers, including the Statesman and Star-Telegram, and also includes a new head-to-head between Perry and White, the probable nominees for each party.
First, the top lines:
Republican Primary Poll
Feb. 2-10, MOE 4.5% |
| Perry | 45% |
| Hutchison | 29% |
| Medina | 17% |
| Undecided | 8% |
|
Rick Perry vs. Bill White
Feb. 2-10, MOE 2.5% |
| Perry | 43% |
| White | 37% |
| Not Vote | 5% |
| Undecided | 13% | |
Again, confirms previous polling: Perry is ahead but may not avoid a run-off, and a Perry-White match-up looks competitive for Democrats this far out. (As a type this, Bill White has just come on my TV touting our flagging education statistics and need to move Texas forward.)
The sponsoring papers have a few interesting observations and insights on the poll. From the Star-Telegram:
Perry leads Hutchison 40 percent to 20 percent in the three-county Fort Worth region, with Medina running second with 26 percent in the heavily Republican area.
(snip)
"Hutchison does not seem to have a real base in the primary against two more conservative candidates," the pollsters said in a summary of their findings.
Again, though the poll was conducted prior to Medina's Glenn Beck performance in which the radio hate-merchant may have deliberately tried to sandbag her over her conspiracy theorist views, the results suggest again that true conservatives absolutely prefer Medina to Hutchison. Should Medina squeak into a run-off with Perry, it would be a fascinating race for the real heart and soul of the Texas Republican Party.
Also from the Star-Telegram:
Almost half of likely Republican primary voters -- 48 percent -- said they could not vote for a candidate who supports the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion, while 43 percent could.
Again, a majority of Republican voters in Texas don't believe that women have the right to control our own medical decisions. While crying "judicial activism!" towards Democratic judicial nominees, it is the Republican base who seems to want Roe v Wade overturned. Women, if you value your medical autonomy, stop voting for Republicans! They simply do not trust you enough with your own reproductive decisions.
The Statesman offered a few observations about the results:
Perry's 46 percent approval rating among all voters is almost exactly the same as it was in February 2006. He went on to win 39 percent of the vote that year in the general election against four opponents, but his opposition probably will not be as splintered if he makes it to November this year.
Make no mistake: Perry is vulnerable. The head-to-head numbers with White show a single-digit race this far out despite low awareness of White. 65% of respondents to the poll said they didn't know enough about White to form an opinion. Once voters take a gander at his record as Houston's mayor and commitment to core issues such as education, energy, and the economy, Perry may see that gap close further.
However, perhaps one of the most intriguing results: 53% of Texans think our state is on the right track. This, despite being ranked last or near-last in education and social services, while health insurance premiums have risen 92% under Rick Perry. Bill White--should he manage to dispatch Farouk "19%" Shami on March 2nd--has a challenge ahead of him. Define his record of results as Mayor of our largest Texas city, and emphasize how Rick Perry's 10 years have led Texas astray. |
