| A lot is being made about Martha Coakley's loss in "historically blue" Massachusetts.
First, lets get one fact out of the way. Republican State Senator, Scott Brown ran a solid campaign with few to no errors. On the other hand, Democrat Martha Coakley ran an awful campaign with some errors that are being described as "one of the costliest political blunders of all time."
Second, as Harold Cook and Phil Martin both point out, Texas is not Massachusetts. A single point of data is not a trend, and the shortsightedness of the press is a gross misrepresentation of the current political climate and facts.
Let's look at some startling facts.
- As recently as 2002, Mitt Romney the Governor's mansion in Massachusetts even with questions surrounding his residency status.
- Since 1990, Massachusetts has elected 4 Republicans and 1 Democrat. The Democrat is Deval Patrick and he took office in 2007. The only other Democrat to serve as Governor in Massachusetts in my short life time is Michael Dukakis. He took office in 1983.
- Coakley was a flawed candidate. The Hill is already calling her mistakes, "the costliest political blunders of all time." After winning the nomination, Coakley stopped campaigning and went on vacation. She confused the Red Sox with Yankees, and arguably misspoke about Afghanistand and the Middle East.
Now let's talk about Texas (After all, that's what this all about).
Massachusetts represents an, on paper, 25+ point plus swing. Rick Perry, the likely nominee, has a waning base of 39%. Even in a redish state, Perry needs +11 to get even. In 2008, a presidential year with elevated turnout, Republicans were +12 in the presidential race, +8 in the railroad commissioner race, and the largest gap in the Texas Supreme Court race was +10 and smallest was +6.
All sizable gaps, but Perry is facing two well funded races in 2010 and starts with a massive voter gap and high negatives.
Now let's talk about polling info. A recent Rassmussen Poll, which Kay Bailey Hutchison is both touting and losing by 10 points in, indicates some positive signs for the November election.
- Rick Perry has been on the statewide ballot for 25 years and is only 10 points ahead of someone who's never run statewide.
- Bill White has not run a dime of TV.
And some takeaways:
- Bill White "very favorables" are stronger than any other candidate.
- Only 16% of voters "strongly approve" of RP job performance.
- Perry trails White by five among women.
As one friend astutely put it, Massachusetts may have been Mars for Texas.
Bill White isn't making Coakley style mistakes. He is running a smart, active, grassroots, field oriented campaign. As I understand it, he doesn't plan on going on vacation on labor day and ignore his campaign and he knows the difference between both the Astros and Rangers and Texans and Cowboys.
Last night isn't a trend either. Let's take a look at all the federal elections that have occurred to date. The New York 20th, Illinois 5th, California 32nd, California 10th and the New York 23rd. Democrats won everyone of those special elections. The New York 23rd being the most impressive since a Democrat hasn't held that seat since 1993 when Democrat Michael R. McNulty has his seat redistricted and in 2008, the Republican John McHugh won +17.7. I only spent time comparing apples to apples. Special election to special election. They are different than general elections and require a different campaign structure, timeline, and level of organizing.
If anything, Massachusetts shouldn't be a sign for Democrats in Texas. Instead, it should be a wake up call for Kay Bailey Hutchison. Her inept, pathetic, go nowhere campaign does strike certain similarities.
As Bob Moser of the Texas Observer wrote:
With six weeks to go before the primary, Hutchison looks a whole lot like Texas' answer to Martha Coakley. Coakley clearly believed she (as a Democrat) was entitled to the job and didn't have to show the people that she'd work her butt off to get it. Hutchison has made it clear that she believes she is entitled to be governor of Texas, simply because she is-drum roll and fanfare, please!-Kay Bailey Hutchison.
Katy Bacon, communication director for the Bill White campaign detailed how they are approaching this campaign and the Texas electorate.
The Texas Governor's race is going to be about issues that matter to Texans. People in our state are sick of career politicians who are more interested in keeping track of political points than getting results. Bill White isn't about the agenda of a political party and never has been -- he's about working hard to ensure that our workforce of the future is educated so that we attract new businesses and new jobs to our state.
At the end of the day, we have learned two things from the slew of special elections leading up to November. 1) Inept campaigns lose. 2) Entitled campaigns lose too.
Time to organize Texas. |
