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TX-Gov: New GOP Primary Poll Shows Medina Momentum; Runoff Likely


by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 05:19 PM CST


A new poll by Rasmussen in conjunction with Fox Television stations shows Debra Medina now polling in the double digits while Rick Perry continues to lead Kay Bailey Hutchison by a 10 point margin. Numbers in parenthesis indicate the prior Rasmussen poll conducted in November 2009.

Poll of 831 Likely Republican Voters

43% (46) Rick Perry
33% (35) Kay Bailey Hutchison
12% (4)  Debra Medina
11% (14) Undecided

The next scheduled GOP gubernatorial debate is scheduled for next Friday the 29th. The sponsors, Belo, have said 15% will be their threshold for inclusion in the debate, a reachable goal for Medina assuming a least one more poll (internal or otherwise) will be released in the next two weeks.

If Medina is able to hold herself in the double digits, it's highly likely that she'll force the heavyweights to an April runoff. If Farouk Shami and Bill White end up in a runoff due to the seven-way Democratic primary for Governor, it would be the first time both parties had simultaneous runoffs for Governor in decades. (There hasn't even been simultaneous competitive campaigns for Governor in both parties in Texas since 1990).

UPDATE: And with that, Medina is invited to the 2nd debate!

"The Rasmussen poll released today shows Debra Medina is now at 12 percent, which is a substantial jump since the previous poll. Factoring in the margin of error (+/- 3.5 percent) and using reasonable news judgment, it appears Ms. Medina is a viable candidate and qualifies for the Belo Debate to be broadcast on January 29," Devlin said.
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Democrats (0.00 / 0)
so are we so disorganized that we can't have a Democratic Gubernatorial debate?

Farouk Shami claims Bill White won't agree to one (0.00 / 0)
In Shami's response to the Republican debate ( http://www.faroukforgovernor.c... ), he says:

"After tonight's debate, I now feel that it is more important than ever for the other Democratic candidates for Governor to have the opportunity for meaningful dialogue," says Shami. "I hope Bill White will rethink his decision to not debate the other candidates in a public forum."  


[ Parent ]
Why should he debate? (0.00 / 0)
Bill White knows he will win the primary. So why should he debate? Of course there is a certain arrogance in that but then those who watched him in his last term as mayor are used to the arrogance.  And some will vote for Farouk Shami. Just not enough to matter.

The interesting thing about Debra Medina is she looks sane compared to Hutchison and Perry.  But in the end, well, again, the ham sandwich. They're the slices of ham and she's the plain white bread in between. Plain or not, she's there. And she might actually garner enough votes to force a runoff with Perry.  But in the end, Perry will win. So it will be Perry versus White. And Governor 39% will probably become Governor 59%.


[ Parent ]
Who has a ham sandwich (0.00 / 0)
made of two pieces of meat with a slice of bread in the middle?

Somehow this helps me begin to approach an understanding of your world view ...


[ Parent ]
It's a Republican sandwich... (0.00 / 0)
They save a slice of bread they can toss to the person they stole the other slice of ham from.  


[ Parent ]
Good News - I guess - But Scary as Well... (0.00 / 0)
I guess this is good news if you can't stand Rick Perry...At least a run-off means he'll need to spend more special interest $$ before meeting Bill White. But personally, I find Medina getting 12% in any poll to be pretty horrifying. That's a lotta' wing-nuts!

Poll Bill White (2.00 / 1)
I'd love to see a poll of likely R primary voters that includes the choice of "Oh, I'm voting Bill White in the general regardless."


I'm not a player, I just Tweet a lot: @KathTX

Maybe Shami is not getting a return on investment (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Can't imagine (0.00 / 0)
any Republicans I know voting for a Democrat no way, no how. That's my poll.

[ Parent ]
How many do you know in Houston? (0.00 / 0)
I guess those I am thinking of aren't necessarily self-labelled Republicans.  They say they are independents, but they watch Fox News and vote Republican most often.  And they like White.

I don't know if they would vote for White regardless.  But they would over Perry and they probably would over Hutchison.  (and definitely Medina)

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams


[ Parent ]
The Issue here, I think, is Politicians versus "Real People" (5.00 / 1)
Take a look at what is happening here in this GOP race, the Tea Party events, the Massachusetts Senate Race, and other races throughout the nation.  

What is the common Thread?

People are sick and tired of "Politicians" who appear disconnected to their daily reality.

Look at Brown v. Coakley, he drives a truck and shakes hands; she won't go outside in the cold.

Look at NY-23, Bill Owens won because the GOP Candidate got a "annointed" label and the Conservative Party Candidate got a nerd-outsider label.

Now look at Medina's performance in the debate: her answers were real, clear, straight forward and not "politician-like." Perry and KBH, on the other hand, were Ultra-Politician like.

How does this play out for Bill White, who is not a great stump player, and sometimes can come off as a policy-wonk?  

When the general campaign gets here, his campaign has to get the "Bill White - Real Man of Texas - He will roll his blue collar sleeves up and get to work for you" story going.  

If White shows how he let his fingernails get dirty in disaster relief and keeping Houston running well, he can beat Governor Perry.

BTW - My houston area GOP relatives are planning on voting for White over Perry, because they think Perry "has lost touch with real people."


[ Parent ]
Republicans I know (0.00 / 0)
live in Dallas/Fort Worth. I'm glad Houston Independent/Republicans may vote for White. Not sure about Dallas Independent/Republicans. Based on what happened tonight in Massachusetts, anything is possible. Seems Martha Coakley lacked something important. Her concession speech was terrible...no passion and she kept looking down at her notes. This is a very sad night.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen Also Polled White v. GOP Candidates (0.00 / 0)

Interestingly, although not receiving enough media, Rasmussen has also polled "White v. each of the GOP candidates" and finds White starts within 10 points of Perry and 15% of Hutchison:

White 40%
Perry 50%

White 37%
Hutchison 52%

White 44%
Medina 38%

See http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

So white starts within striking distance.


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