| Given some of the comments in my post earlier this morning about the 201st District Court race between sitting 3rd Court of Appeals Judge Jan Patterson and Amy Clark Meachum, it appears I need to write a follow up post in order to explain a couple of timeline and process points.
The first point is a timing question with regard to vacancies, seeking other seats, etc. Here are the basic points to remember- all of which are based on fact.
- Jan Patterson's 3rd Court of Appeals, Place 4 seat is the only 3rd Court seat that is on the ballot in 2010. This seat was scheduled to be up for election this year regardless of whether Judge Patterson chose to run for re-election or not.
- As early as December of 2008, right after the presidential election, Jan Patterson had made it known she was planning to finish her term on the 3rd Court of Appeals (not resign) and run in the 2010 primary for the 201st District Court which was going to be an open seat with Judge Covington's planned retirement. As such, Kurt Kuhn was to (and did) become the Democratic nominee for Patterson's Place 4 seat for the same scheduled 2010 election.
- In July of 2009, after the death of 353rd District Court Judge Scott Ozmun in May of 2009, Jan Patterson actively sought appointment by Gov. Rick Perry to the 353rd District Court. At the time of this request, she was still serving as the sitting judge for the 3rd Court of Appeals and was an unopposed candidate for the 201st District Court.
- Jan Patterson would have had to resign her 3rd Court of Appeals seat mid-term to accept Perry's appointment to the 353rd vacancy. This would have created a vacancy for her Place 4 seat.
- While this next point is based on a hypothetical, it is more than reasonable to argue that Gov. Perry would then appoint a Republican to fill Patterson's unexpired Place 4 term whom Kurt Kuhn would face in the general election assuming Perry's Republican appointee won the GOP primary. It very well could have been Melissa Goodwin, who is currently one of two Republicans seeking to be the GOP nominee against Kuhn and whom Perry has appointed to fill vacancies in Travis County before (the 427th District Court where she was defeated in 2008 by Jim Coronado).
Beyond this point, we can argue about whether Perry would have actually appointed someone to fill Patterson's 3rd Court of Appeals seat and if they would have been a Republican. I think the answer to that is certainly yes (he would have) and yes (it would have been a Republican).
So assuming that, we'd have had a 4-2 GOP controlled 3rd Court of Appeals from (best guess) October of 2009 and through the 2010 election- over a year. That's a long time for the GOP appointee to also use that power of incumbency against Kurt Kuhn.
And why is that relevant if there was a GOP incumbent instead of an open seat? Because the 3rd Court of Appeals district is the most evenly drawn district in the entire state and every sitting judge on the 3rd Court today, regardless of party, has been elected by less than 52.5% of the vote.
Look at the numbers below- the winners are bolded.
2008-
Chief Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals District
Ken Law(I) REP 407,243 47.59%
Woodie Jones DEM 448,373 52.40%
2006-
Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals District, Place 2
Alan Waldrop(I) REP 248,966 51.30%
Jim Sybert Coronado DEM 236,314 48.69%
Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals District, Place 3
Will Wilson REP 241,811 49.52%
Diane Henson DEM 246,411 50.47%
Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals District, Place 5
David Puryear(I) REP 256,044 52.26%
Mina A. Brees DEM 233,876 47.73%
Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals District, Place 6
Bob Pemberton(I) REP 250,657 51.24%
Bree Buchanan DEM 238,491 48.75%
2004-
Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals District, Place 4
Bill Green REP 361,904 48.19%
Jan Patterson(I) DEM 389,064 51.80%
Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals District, Place 6 (Unexpired)
Bob Pemberton(I) REP 386,274 51.55%
Diane Henson DEM 362,955 48.44%
And remember, the 3rd Court of Appeals covers 24 counties many of which are not friendly at all. Here's the map.
These elections are heavily dependent on a lot of work by the candidate to work the mid-tier counties and convince swing voters with local endorsements. And one of the most important keys is having a good relationship with and supporting the Democratic Coordinated Campaigns in Travis County which is the single largest source of votes no matter how you slice it.
In Patterson's 2004 race, Travis County was responsible for 208,806 of her 389,064 total Democratic votes.
In the four 3rd Court of Appeals seats on the ballot in 2006, the votes from Travis County ranges from a low of 127,655 for Mina Brees to 134,176 for Diane Henson. Of those four candidates, only Henson won. But if you analyze the Travis County difference between Henson's vote and that of the three losing Democrats, it's interesting.
The Travis County drop off of 2,052 votes for Coronado from Henson's Travis Democratic total makes up only 32% of the votes he needed to flip across the district to win. For Buchanan, her Travis County Democratic difference of 3,127 votes from Henson was 51% of the total votes she need to flip to win. For Brees, the 6,521 Democratic decline from Henson's number was a stunning 59% of the vote she needed to flip across those 24 counties to win.
This is all to say that any edge a candidate has can mean a great deal to win over those critical few thousand votes out of a half million that will get cast this year. Money matters. Name ID matters. Incumbency matters- all you have to do is look at the election results above to see the power of that.
I will concede that I would prefer all of these judicial races to not have to be partisan elections (or even elections at all), partly because it can lead to technical, procedural, and partisan discussions like this! But this is the system we have, and it's entirely reasonable for Democrats to consider these facts in making their decision as to whom they will support in the 201st District Court race. I think it's fair to consider the higher value and importance of maintaining balance on the 3rd Court of Appeals, the most important appeals court in the state- due to it receiving all of the appeals from Travis County (think Public Integrity Unit from the Travis County District Attorney's office, Tom DeLay, and state lawsuits involving the environment, education, energy, and public corruption).
I hope this has clarified and provided some background for readers as to why this issue has been brought up and is important to many activists and attorneys. |