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Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 08:00 AM CST
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| I don't know. Every day that goes by is one more day where a new Tea Party organization splinters from another larger Tea Party organization. Every day that goes by is another day where the crazy Limbaugh/Palin/Beck fringe of the Republican Party gets more and more upset at the core GOP itself. And every day that goes by is another day where Rick Perry continues to sew up the Republican gubernatorial nomination over Kay "I don't know what I'm doing" Hutchison.
With that said, an interesting turn in the saga that is the fracturing Texas Republican Party took place this week when fringe secessionist, and American flag hater Larry Kilgore dropped his bid for the Republican nomination for governor and threw his support behind Debora Medina.
WFAA's Brad Watson notes the following regarding Kilgore's past performances on the ballot:
There has been a substantial protest vote in the past two Republican primaries. Last year those votes went against Sen. John Cornyn and candidate Larry Kilgore got 18 percent of the 1.2 million votes cast. That's nearly 227,000 votes.
In 2006, Kilgore led a group of fringe candidates in scoring nearly 16 percent of the vote against Perry.
SMU Political Scientist Cal Jillson adds the following:
"The question is whether that fringe vote goes three or four percent or nine or 10 percent," said Cal Jillson, an SMU political science professor. "At nine or 10, it can affect the outcome and cause a runoff." |
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| I believe that Jillson is right to cite the question as to whether the fringe vote goes single or double digits because the fact is we have no way of predicting right now. Politics turns on a dime. Earlier in the year, and certainly around the summer, I would have bet on double digits; however, a lot has changed since that time. The one element that has changed the most is the fact that the Republican Party has allowed crazy to become more and more mainstream within their ranks, which has allowed some of those fringe Tea Party supporters to remain home in the Republican Party and show support for the already elected fringe Republicans representing their party---a la Rick Perry and his love for secession these days. The rest of these teabag/birther organizations and their followers are becoming more and more disenchanted with organized political party's, and are becoming more and more disenchanted with the one party they are most likely to associate themselves with---Republican.
If you ask me I think the element of fringe becoming more disenchanted with the one party they most associate themselves with is more likely to stay home then go vote at all. Should that occur I believe the fringe effect in 2010 will be minimal. However, if Medina gains some traction, and is somehow able to out-fringe even Rick Perry, then certainly a scenario where Medina performs in the double-digit range is likely and could lead to a runoff between Perry and Hutchison. If a runoff occurs that would be a bad scenario for the Republicans to encounter in 2010. A prolonged, bruising and bloody battle between two GOP heavyweights spending millions of dollars would strengthen the Democratic gubernatorial nominee heading into the general election.
I think the larger question to ask is when do these disenchanted, fringe crazies break off to form their own political party? That is where the real damage can be done to the Republican Party, not the runoff, but a general election with a Tea Bag supported candidate on the ballot. Should that occur, a la NY-23 special election, Democratic hopes of securing the governor's mansion grow stronger. |
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