| The Texas Tribune was not the first media organization in Texas to do podcasts about Texas politics -- but often times, I find myself enjoying their conversations the most. For one, it is an excellent window into the thinking behind the conventional wisdom and media narrative that shapes the stories we read. Additionally, the Tribune specifically hosts these podcasts to sound like the conversations you would have in a bar, talking politics and thinking through campaigns. This week, the first major topic of conversation was about Kay Bailey Hutchison and the Republican primary between her and Rick Perry. Their conversation -- which you can listen to in full here -- covers a lot, but I'm going to transcribe and focus on a 2-3 minute segment (starting around the 3:10 mark, if you want to hear it yourself) that raises three interesting questions/comments about the narrative of the race: - Hutchison is so far behind, we really shouldn't call this race a "clash of the titans"
- Because Hutchison is so far behind, we could see Perry post larger numbers in mid-January than her, which would blunt the late surge her campaign keeps telling everyone is coming
- Hutchison supporters could very well be drawn to Bill White once she loses the primary
Every day, Rick Perry vs. Bill White beceoms less of a possibility and more of an inevitiability. Let's start at the beginning:
Hutchison is so far behind, we really shouldn't call this race a "clash of the titans"
In some media accounts, we often hear this race referred to as a "clash of the titans" or "war of the roses" -- it has been billed for months, largely by traditional media analysis, as an epic heavyweight showdown for the soul of the Republican Party. When, in fact, it's nothing close to that. I've transcribed part of the Tribcast below -- let's start with Evan Smith's assessment of Hutchison's campaign (emphasis added is mine): Evan Smith: I want to be very careful -- I know you're not saying this, and I'm not saying it -- not to write Senator Hutchison off in this race. This race is by no means over. But I think it is crazy for anybody in the press to pretend that it is the comeptitve race today that the Hutchison campaign would like us to believe. She is behind. She is behind in every measure, and if there is a poll that the Hutchison campaign has that they are sitting on that shows her competitive, please produce it immediately. Because the narrative of this race -- which of course, doesn't determine the outcome, all it determines is what people talk about between now and the outcome -- the narrative of this race is rapidly becoming that he is way ahead, and that her campaign is in trouble, and what can she possibly do at this point to fix it? It's unfair to her, but that's become the narrative, and I'm not sure either she or her campaign is necessarily helping change that narrative.
Evan goes on to make a second point, later in the Tribcast -- that there is an argument that Hutchison is more electable in the general election, as polls have suggested. Yet, you can't get to the general without going through the primary, and all analysis -- including the one Evan just made -- is that Hutchison is never going to make it past Perry in the primary.
Perry May Post Larger Numbers in Mid-January than KBH (Also, His TV Ads Are Better) Elise Hu then raises the point Hutchison's campaign often makes -- that Hutchison will launch a TV war in January. But what happens if Rick Perry has more money than her, and is ahead in the polls? Ross Ramsey answers that question: Elise Hu: Could it possibly be -- this is kind of a conspiracy theory -- but could it possibly be a strategic move? We know, and it's been published, that Kay Bailey Hutchison originally wanted a short campaign, something that ran from January to March, really, and largely on the airwaves. Could they essentially be kind of dark right now and getting ready for some sort of massive push close to the end? Ross Ramsey: You can make that argument. We've talked before about two primaries here -- one of them is a financial primary, where you're basically trying to impress the finance people around the state so that they will give you the money so that when you get to the real primary, you have the $1.5 million to $1.8 million a week it takes to advertise to the whole state of Texas. So, Kay Hutchison is competitive in the sense that she's got a pile of money. We'll see the reports in mid-January on how much she and Perry have raised in the last six months. But, you know, I expect it to be a $30-40 million two month primary. That's a lot of TV stuff -- I wish I owned a television station -- but I think she'll be competitive in that way. But what's going on now is that people are perceiving, sort of the insiders are perceiving that she's not really putting up a fight yet. That's the finance primary. And I wouldn't be surprised if we see in January that Perry has had a more successful second half of 2009, financially, than Hutchison.
I'd also like to point out that Hutchison's ads have been panned as ineffective and boring, while Perry's TV ads are highly regarded as being both persuasive and on message. Paul Burka at Texas Monthly -- who, as a Republican, often does better analysis on Republican politics than anyone else -- has said as much in his review of the three ads so far: Hutchison Supporters Could Support Bill White If She Loses the Primary
Finally, Ben Philpott brings it all home -- the consequences of Hutchison running a completely ineffective campaign, and potentially losing the "financial primary" to Rick Perry -- by telling a story of how a lifelong Hutchison supporter he knows actually likes Bill White: Evan Smith: And ask yourself, Ben, if there are major donors who are sitting here going, "I'm going to write a check to her." Is there a motivation for them to do that? Ben Philpott: There isn't, and I think the idea of public perception of what her campaign is doing right now, you know -- I have a friend, longtime Republican, who talked to me this week and was always a Kay Bailey Hutchison supporter, talked to me this week and said, "You know, I really like Bill White." Now that's just one person -- that's just one moderate Republican friend of mine. But that's -- we've talked on and on that a massive, or rather a bloody Republican primary could have Kay Bailey Hutchison suppoters if she indeed loses, looking to either stay out of the race or possibly looking at a moderate Democrat. Well, I have now one friend who -- he didn't say he was going to vote for White, but he said, "well I sure do like White."
Evan Smith quickly points out that there is no large statistical evidence to suggest that Bill White will automatically attract all of Kay Bailey Hutchison's supporters, and I agree with that. But I've heard too many anecdotes -- and barring a poll, that's all we've got for now -- of friends and co-workers who have Republican family in the Houston area, and their Republican families support Bill White. Conventional wisdom and media narratives are fickle creatures, and they can change at a moment's notice when large actions take place (like Bill White getting in the Governor's race, for example). But, as Evan points out at the beginning of this particular conversation, they set the tone of the election -- especially among those in the "financial primary" -- and can affect polls. It stands to reason that if you vote in a primary, you are at least an educated voter in the sense that you choose to self-identify with a political party, so there's a good chance you follow the happenings of the organization you belong to. For Republicans, the chattering class -- and the media narrative -- is firmly entrenched in Rick Perry's favor. Unless Kay Bailey Hutchison shows some sort of signs of life, which she hasn't been able to do to date, then there may be no reason for anyone -- donors, the press, activists, or voters -- to expect Hutchison to make it past Perry in the primary. Every day, Rick Perry vs. Bill White beceoms less of a possibility and more of an inevitiability. |
