| So a couple of major events in the Houston Mayor's Race that we have been remiss in noting the last week.
3rd Place Finisher Peter Brown Endorses Annise Parker
In a news conference on the steps of City Hall, Brown today that he would be casting his vote for Parker in the runoff election December 12 and he asked all his supporters, friends and family to do the same.
Brown said: "One candidate stands out with a 12-year proven track record of public service, particularly in terms of efficient, transparent government, the quality of life in our neighborhoods, and fiscal responsibility, especially important in these difficult economic times."
Houston Chronicle Analysis Suggest Edge for Annise Parker
Houston Chronicle: "The numbers paint a very good picture for the Parker campaign and present some obvious challenges to the Locke team in the finals," said unaffiliated political consultant Keir Murray, whose analysis of the precinct data concurs with that of the Chronicle. "Annise goes into the runoff in a very strong position. I think she's the person to beat."
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Parker, who established a major base of support among inside-the-loop white voters and placed first or second in traditionally conservative areas, must get out her base and undertake a major push to woo conservatives, a possibility that may be within reach, according to the data, campaign officials and analysts.
Locke, who placed a distant fourth in traditionally conservative areas, must raise black turnout, unite African-Americans behind his candidacy and win over far more upper- and middle-class white voters, particularly those in the conservative areas that may be most up for grabs, analysts said.
Annise Parker Releases Internal Campaign Memo
In an October survey by Lake Research Partners, among voters who voted for Peter Brown originally, Annise was their second choice candidate and by a margin of 2 to 1 over Locke. And among voters who chose Morales (either first or second), almost a third chose Parker (30%) compared to just 10% who chose Locke.
Gene Locke Poll Showing Parker Lead of 4 Points
Burka Blog: Gene Locke's campaign has released the first poll taken since November 3. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday nights (November 9 & 10) by Paul Maislin, who also polled for Lee Brown and Bill White. The poll showed [Annise] Parker leading by 43-39% with 18% undecided. The margin of error was 4%.
The poll shows that Parker and Locke are splitting Peter Brown votes fairly evenly with most white Democrats shifting to Parker and Brown's African-American supporters moving to Locke. The undecided voters at this point are mostly suburban, white, and Republican leaning. The suburban-white-Republican-leaning voters that have made up their minds about the race are breaking strongly in Locke's favor by about a 70-30 margin. This group is primarily been responsible for Locke moving from 10% down in the election to within the margin of error of Parker.
The poll is modeled on a 170,000-voter turnout in the election. About 180,000 voters voted on November 3.
More Maps by Greg Wythe
Now you can see the order of finish of both Annise Parker and Gene Locke by precinct across Harris County in this map. Greg also tries to divine a sense of victory by mapping these three neighborhoods.
Annise Parker Campaign had a Field Game
One of the markers of the first round of the election was that while Peter Brown was spending millions on TV, Annise Parker was talking to her base out in the field. With the first round over, some numbers from muse.
In just the last 90 days, our volunteers have made more than 179,000 phone calls and knocked on over 50,000 doors. On just the weekend before the election, our field operation knocked on 14,000 doors! Now that's how to win a campaign when you are outspent more than two to one.
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The internal memo from the Parker campaign yesterday revealed that their field campaign increased turnout 10% in targeted precincts. That's pretty impressive data on ROI on field. |
