| Unlike some of my counterparts, I haven't been 100% confident we will back the House this cycle. When a party is in power nationally, that party usually sustain major losses in the mid-terms.
Needless to say, 2010 has loomed on a dark horizon for me.
Now there are some solid, tangible numbers for the naysayers and doubters (myself included). The Quorum Report has some interesting numbers from Dana Chiodo. Typically a swing district nationally is a district that is between 47 to 53% Democrat. In Texas a swing District can be as high as 60% Republican according to Chiodo.
That, according to Quorum Report puts Linda Harper Brown, Dan Branch, Dwayne Bohac and Ken Legler directly at risk. It also gives a boost/advantage to incumbents to Kristi Thibaut and Diana Maldonado who both represent suburban areas.
With the House currently at 74 Democrats to 76 Republicans and and 60% Republican district is at risk for Texas Republicans, the House majority appears to be within our grasps.
The way the poll was weighted, it's hard to find a way to refute the set up. As Quorum Report notes:
Since she began crunching the numbers 12 years ago, Chiodo has stayed away from the high profile marquee name races. Instead, she compiles numbers based on an average of down ballot statewide races seeking to find how voters break when they don't know the candidate.
So, seeking to avoid an aberration at the top of the ticket, Chiodo weighted her numbers using four 2006 down ballot statewide races and two down-ballot judicial races from 2008. The drop off from the top of the ticket in 2008 was about 5%.
Giving both 2006 results 2/3rd weight and 2008 races 1/3rd weight in her formulations might suggest even better numbers for Democrats.
The take-away? The long predicted demographic shift pushing Texas Democrats into a competitive position is clearly underway. While Texas Republicans still have a 400,000-500,000 statewide structural advantage, they appear to be losing ground.
While some may remain skeptical or pessimistic for 2010, it seems the numbers are on our side. All we have left to do, hard work. |
