Jason Embry of the Austin American-Statesman released his top five endangered lawmakers list this past Sunday. I really have no quibble with the order of Embry's list and I understand that it is early and so people may go up the list and people may go down the list. Heck, you might find a few new ones on there as well at some point. I do believe he was accurate in at least placing second on the list House District 105 in North Texas.
Rep. Linda Harper-Brown, R-Irving. (2) Harper-Brown barely hung onto her seat last year against a Democrat who had no money and no support from the state party. Now Democrats are paying attention. Democrat Loretta Haldenwang is off and running, having posted a strong fundraising report for the first half of the year. She also has the backing of Annie's List, which has been extremely successful in winning House races in recent years. On the other hand, Republicans need this seat to keep their majority, and even though Harper-Brown is not in Speaker Joe Straus' inner circle, he'll have plenty of money to spend and could spend heavily to help her. The same could be said for Bohac. Obama won Harper-Brown's district, 52-47.
Harper-Brown is most certainly endangered, but nothing has been won yet. Business analyst and former state house district director, Loretta Haldenwang, is considered by most the Democrat to beat in the March 2010 primary. Haldewang, formerly an external affairs director with the Dallas Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, continues to boast impressive financial numbers, Party insider muscle with Annie's List, and campaign infrastructure--particularly with regard to field, that she'll need to weather a tough primary and potential general election battle.
Haldenwang has in no way sewn up victory and she'll be the first to tell you that as she did at our September Mid-Cities Democrats meeting. This race is going to be a trench battle every single day. Obama may have won this district with 52% of the vote in 2008, and Democrats narrowly lost this seat overall---by just 19 votes, but that does not equate to easy victory. Turnout will be lower in 2010 versus 2008. Voter communication will be critical, which means a robust field operation is mandatory. Most importantly, however, will be money. Those three factors will determine whether HD-105 is the barometer by which Democrats can expect a 2010 House takeover, or the race was one of those "the one that got away" stories |
