TX-Gov: Rasmussen Shows Hutchison 40, Perry 38

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A new Rasmussen poll of likely Republican primary voters shows Kay Bailey Hutchison with 40 percent and Rick Perry with 38 percent. Two months ago, in mid July, a Rasmussen poll showed Rick Perry leading Kay Bailey Hutchison by 10 points in the Republican Gubernatorial primary.

The two candidates have practically identical approval ratings among the likely primary voters, with Perry at 72 percent and Hutchison at 71 percent.

The polling report included some interesting points on Perry's approval rating as governor:

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of primary voters now approve of the job Perry is doing as governor, down five points from July. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disapprove of the governor’s performance. Perhaps more significantly, 20% strongly approve, down five points from the previous survey, while 12% strongly disapprove, up three points.

In a primary will relatively low turnout, the intensity of support matters greatly. To see Perry's “strongly approve” go down and “strongly disapprove” go up, even slightly, may worry the Governor's campaign team.

While the polling at first glance seems like good news for Hutchison and bad news for Perry, a question still remains about how a challenger, even one as popular as Hutchison, can defeat a ten-year incumbent governor who has a nearly 70 percent approval rating among likely primary voters.

Some of Perry's largest leads in the poll were from self-identified conservatives and voters under 65, two groups that will likely make up a disproportionately high percentage of Republican primary voters next March.

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  1. waiting on hamiltonfan
    to tell us this race is over again. i think he officially called it for rick back in june.

    kay baby ain't going away. i would expect her to build a lead and hold it…especially if she'll start making family appearances.

    clearly perry's polling has indicated that he needs to tie her to DC at every turn…and my gut tells me kbh's polling indicates that if you give gov. pomade enough rope, he'll hang himself.

    i don't think that kbh's strategy (and, therefore, karen hughes strategy) of taking the abuse with a smile is by accident.  i'm sure her polling must have found a thematic that shows perry's attacks soften his support and embolden her support.

    assuming the lyceum poll was accurate, this is a 14 point swing in 3 months.  don't think that happened, i think the lyceum poll was a little off.

    this is shaping up to be a very exciting cycle.

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