That leaves a total of eight states that are competitive in terms of party identification, with none showing a party advantage of greater than two points. These include Mississippi (+1 Republican), North Dakota and Nebraska (even), and Kansas, Arizona, Texas, South Carolina, and Montana (all +2 Democratic).
According to analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from the first six months of 2009, Texas is a competitive state based on party identification.
The poll found that 42% of respondents identified as either a Democrat or lean Democrat with 40% indicating they were Republican or lean Republican. 9,149 surveys were conducted over the first 6 months of the year.
The margin appears to be +/- 3 points so the number is basically a push. These numbers seem to represent what we are seeing on the ground. In 2006, Rick Perry only received 39% of the vote. It has been speculated this was the baseline or raw voter count of the Republican Party in Texas. With this Gallup poll showing 40% Republican/Lean Republican in Texas, we see a long term trend that shows the Republican ceiling.
If Democrats put together a solid slate and continue to appeal to suburban and exurban independents (like we have for 2 cycles), Democrats could win big November 2010.
Regardless of what the Republican noise machine will say in Texas, Democrats are on the brink in the lone star state.
The full story can be found on the Gallup website.