Republican Senator Arlen Spector to Switch Parties?

Changes KBH dynamics (0.00 / 0)

She was the thin red line giving the GOP a way to obstruct, but now the math makes her irrelevant. Probably mean she resigns sooner to come home and do battle with Secession-Boy.

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by: George @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 16:32:23 PM UTC

Agree (2.00 / 3)

All the pressure is off KBH now. Perry can no longer say that SHE was the 60th domino.

In fact, it puts HUGE pressure on Perry to appoint someone to replace her who is electable at-large, not just a KoolAid drinker. The appointment of an electable candidate will further confuse Perry's base which is currently splitting time between secession, teabagging, blaming illegal aliens for swine flu, being pissed at Rush for opposing dog fights, and readying themselves for the rapture.

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by: McKinney @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 16:57:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

To answer the question (0.00 / 0)

about the EFCA, unfortunately Specter said he was no changing his position. That could possibly open him up to a Democratic primary challenge from the left, we will see.

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by: David Mauro @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 16:42:26 PM UTC

it could work the other way... (3.00 / 2)

...one could say that one less R makes holding both Texas seats even more important to Cornyn, as the math makes it more likely Obama will have a filibuster-proof Senate the rest of his first term unless the R's pick up a seat or two, depending on what happens to Kay's seat.

That said, enough with the speculation about Perry and Kay. That's the Republicans' problem, and our job as Democrats is to make them losers. For now, we're better served by getting ready to elect Democrats up and down the ballot before redistricting at every level. If we do that, we'll be ready for whatever and whenever the Senate race.

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by: Ed Martin @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 18:56:44 PM UTC

The end of the end. (0.00 / 0)

The Republican party has been consistently dying for a while. The reality is that they failed to move forward with the changes the American society has undergone. The Democratic party was able to capitalize of the generational energy and the deep need for an ideological political shift deeply rooted in national identity. Republicans no longer know who they are, they have no institutional goals, they are like an old marriage out of love. These voters however, still exist and are still very relevant. The religious right has become a burden for the Republican party and maybe eventually, the burden will have to be carried by someone else.  

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by: vukvanizer @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 19:49:50 PM UTC

will Kay Switch parties next? (0.00 / 0)

I think it makes sense if the democrats clear the field for her.  what do you think?  how likey would real democrats be for Kay?

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by: hamiltonfan @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 19:59:47 PM UTC

Burka analysis (0.00 / 0)

Would it make sense?  Yes.  Will she do it?  No.  At least I sincerely doubt it.  Would I support her if she did?  Yes.  I actually really would.  I think a bird in the hand (a candidate that WOULD win the election) would be worth three in the bush (candidates that would be "better" yet wouldn't win).  How common is my perspective?  I dunno, but I think in a high turnout primary the uninformed voters WOULD vote for her.

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by: David O. @ Wed Apr 29, 2009 at 16:13:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no, but... (0.00 / 0)

if she did, we should welcome her with open arms.

i don't think we should clear the field for anyone. she needs to prove to dems that she brings something to the table (a substantial number of KBH supporters that will crossover in the primary) and can win the primary legitimately.

if strayhorn had done it in 06, she likely would have been our nominee and governor.

as long as her numbers look as good as they do among repubs, there is no way she would ever switch.

Please refer to KT's signature.

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by: colin @ Wed Apr 29, 2009 at 17:32:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Big long-term impact. Small short-term impact. (0.00 / 0)

Politicians who switch parties tend to change their policy positions quite a bit, but it takes time. In the short run, they are out to prove that "I didn't leave the party. It left me." We shouldn't expect Specter's switch to help Obama get things passed this year.

Next year and beyond is a totally different story. After a while, party-switchers get used to being on a different team, and are subject to different pressures. There are typically a lot of recriminations over the switch, and a lot of bridges get burned. With a whole new set of political friends, their thinking changes.

Over time, Blue Dog Democrats who switch to the Republican Party become very conservative Republicans. (Think about Richard Shelby, John Connally, Phil Gramm, or Rick Perry.) Joe Lieberman was never exactly liberal, but he became much more conservative when he became an Independent. On the flip side, Jim Jeffords became much more liberal when he stopped being a Republican, but only after helping to pass Bush's budget.

As for Texas, Specter's switch doesn't make a damn bit of difference. Since some filibusters will still succeed and some will fail, the pressure for KBH to keep her seat will remain.  

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by: LSadun @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 20:11:40 PM UTC