Considering that early voting starts Monday for municipal elections across the state (and in my father's own re-election campaign), there's no harm in breaking out some numbers to try to guess how many people will ultimately be bothered to vote.
Here in Austin most suspect that number will be pathetically low as usual. The heat and suspense I once surmised might have been stirred into the electorate by a multimillion dollar mayoral race has not come to bare, and my predictions of a 75,000+ turnout are gone with it. Instead, I have lately had a gut feeling that this election would see about 50,000-55,000 voters which apparently is in line with the following analysis by local unaligned consultant, Mark Littlefield, who is allowing me to share his analysis with you.
Feel free to pour through the numbers online or download it via the interface below. In short, here are the key numbers based on the estimates he ran.
Generous Model: 62,701
Realistic Model: 50,763
June Runoff Election
Generous Model: 27,723
Realistic Model: 22,158
Depressing, I know, though I tend to feel that a runoff this year could be more polarizing and meaningful and result in a smaller than typical dropoff.
The author did pass along two notes.
- This does not include Austin voters in Williamson County (though not many end up voting up there anyways).
- These numbers for 2006 and 2008 are from current databases. There were more votes in 06 and 08, but if they don't exist in my 09 database – I can't account for them. If a 3/3C voted in 08, but then moved – they are not counted.