TX-Sen: John Sharp & Bill White Prove Conventional Wisdom Wrong

Sharp loan? (0.00 / 0)

Setting aside Sharp's lack of transparency regarding his loan, what does Burnt Orange Nation think Sharp needs to show to demonstrate he has more than net worth but a base? How many donors (White has 1,400)? How much non-loan money?

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by: McKinney @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 13:07:59 PM UTC

We have to win this race (0.00 / 0)

If we win this Senate seat, then the national donors will start believing in Texas and we can start investing in our local grassroots infrastructure instead of exporting our resources to other battleground states. That will be the tipping point, so let's get to work and turn Texas blue.

Both White and Sharp are excellent candidates, and we're lucky to have such a strong field. We've never elected a statewide Democrat in my voting lifetime, so I'm thrilled that we finally have a realistic chance to take back Lloyd Bentsen's Senate seat.

If you're in Austin, then swing by one of our upcoming Texans for Obama meetups at Scholz Garten at 6:00pm and get to know these good Democrats:
* May 19 - Bill White
* June 16 - John Sharp

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by: Ian @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 13:19:43 PM UTC

As much as I respect Lloyd Bentsen (5.00 / 1)

I am more excited that we have a chance to talk back Ralph Yarborough's Senate seat.

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by: David Mauro @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 13:47:39 PM UTC

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Hear hear! (4.00 / 2)

I'll second that one David.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 14:41:42 PM UTC

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Agreed (0.00 / 0)

Hopefully Texas will someday be liberal enough to elect another Yarborough-like candidate.

But let's never forget Bentsen's contribution to the TX Democratic Party. His legendary 1982 statewide coordinated campaign helped elect a new generation of Democratic candidates like Ann Richards, Gary Mauro, Jim Mattox, Jim Hightower and Mark White. Without Bentsen's leadership, those down ballot candidates would not have been as successful.

Hopefully this upcoming Senate race will not only provide Obama with a 60th Democratic Senator, but we'll also help elect a new generation of Democrats who can lead us in the 21st century.

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by: Ian @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 14:49:56 PM UTC

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Ralph got in in 1957 (0.00 / 0)

in a special election with only 38%, lucked out when LBJ and the Shivercrats picked a weak opponent in '58, and was re-elected in the 1964 Dem landslide when he and LBJ made nice for political expediency - LBJ wasn't going to back a primary challenger in his home state to the guy who was sheperding much of his legislative agenda through the Senate.

Texas was probably just as conservative then, if not moreso - the party in charge notwithstanding. I think the demographics exist in Texas to elect a candidate like Ralph Yarborough right now, but the political playing field does not. Maybe we should move the game.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 16:15:26 PM UTC

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I see what we're trying to do here. (0.00 / 0)

But the fact is that the current Repubs in this race are little more than placeholders. Obviously much of the Republican money for this race is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the real candidate to appear. When he does, expect the rest of these also-rans to bow out and defer.

If the RPT made one thing crystal clear last cycle, it was that they can bring the necessary cash - when necessary. Of course Sharp and White's numbers are encouraging and we shouldn't overlook that, but anyone who thinks an Abbott or a Dewhurst, once engaged, can't match their haul (and then some)is kidding themselves. Same goes for McCaul, who's future is also in limbo as they all wait for KBH to shit or get off the pot.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 14:39:17 PM UTC

Don't agree (0.00 / 0)

I think a lot of Republican money is going to get sucked into the Governor's race, then in taking back the House. In the mean time, Sharp/White can get a nice pot going to build credibility w/ national folks to keep raising more funds.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 14:54:54 PM UTC

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Robert's right (0.00 / 0)

After all, so far no one knows whether Hutchison will be running in 2012.  She might lose her shot at governor and stay in the Senate.  Until that gets resolved, there will not be a serious Republican in the race.  So we will not really know anything until after the primary next year (if she loses), or otherwise after the general election next year.

The second point is that Sharp and White will use up this money running against each other.  Only after the 2012 primary will the winner have a chance to start accumulating cash for the fall.  At that point a serious Republican will be selected and running, and we will have a telling head-to-head match.

No matter what happens, it will be exciting.  We definitely have a reasonable shot at taking this seat back.

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by: Dale Napier @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 16:59:32 PM UTC

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The senate race is a special election (0.00 / 0)

Dale- KBH has said she will vacate her seat. When she does, it triggers a special election: NO primaries.

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by: McKinney @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 17:07:14 PM UTC

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Well, there's a few caveats here: (0.00 / 0)

a) she could be feinting, and
b) there's a window near the first of the year where she could resign and it would slate the special election for the November 2010 ballot, along with a primary election - which is what I think the NRSC and the RPT want her to do since they don't wanna take a chance on a free-for-all. Plus, the longer she stays in, the more Perry's options narrow re: her replacement.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 17:33:18 PM UTC

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But her problem (0.00 / 0)

then becomes one of engagement. She can't engage effectively with Perry and build a campaign infrastructure from D.C., but it'll look bad for her to keep her seat while she's down here campaigning. If she doesn't get down here this summer, she could be pissing away her margin for error. Perry has made it clear that he's now on the crazy train, but he may be figuring correctly since those folks show up in GOP primaries. Her only path to victory next March is to present herself as the only viable alternative to perry, to both moderate Rs and Dems alike. If we have a credible candidate exciting our base and keeping them in our primary, that really puts her behind the 8-ball.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 17:41:52 PM UTC

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November doesn't help Republicans (0.00 / 0)

When 23% of the vote is from the Houston area, the GOP is not helped by high turnout. They want to avoid November '09 and '10 at all costs. But is the election were November 2010, that means Kay waited too long to quit.  Odds are she quits the first opportunity that would NOT trigger a November 2009 election, so the special election would be in May 2010. The Governor does not have a lot of discretion on when to hold that election.

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by: McKinney @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 20:34:49 PM UTC

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Except high turnout was their friend (0.00 / 0)

last cycle, with Harris ballooning way beyond their 2006 proportion. I would think they would not want a special (out of cycle election), because the turnout is far less predictable.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 21:41:48 PM UTC

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True, but... (0.00 / 0)

There will be a runoff of the top two. Unless they can whittle it down to two GOPers against two Dems, it is unlikely they can send two GOPers into a runoff, so they would still have an unpredictability and off-cycle election.

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by: McKinney @ Fri Apr 17, 2009 at 00:07:16 AM UTC

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I know what she said (0.00 / 0)

She says a lot of things, and often does differently -- just like any politician, Republican or Democrat.  The reality on the ground is that she is in the Senate and has not resigned.  

Sooner or later she will have to cut deals within her party to get the support she needs to beat Perry in the primary.  It seems likely that support for her will be conditioned upon not resigning until she absolutely has to -- which would be after winning in November 2010.  

It is the smart move for outmaneuvering White and Sharp, who the Republicans do not want to have an even chance of running and winning.  Until 11/10 she does not have to resign.  So I'll believe in this special election when the Governor calls it.  It still looks like Sharp and White have been suckered into staying out of the governor's race.

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by: Dale Napier @ Fri Apr 17, 2009 at 00:26:53 AM UTC

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Minor edit (0.00 / 0)

Michael Williams hasn't loaned himself $51k.  Not sure where that came from.  That figure represents invoices that were paid after 3/31.

Further, when was the last time a Dem outraised (not outspent (Sanchez), outraised) a Republican statewide in Texas?  Doesn't happen often.  The Republican Senate candidate will raise plenty of funds to hold this seat.

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by: Corbin Casteel @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 15:14:10 PM UTC

re: (0.00 / 0)

Further, when was the last time a Dem outraised (not outspent (Sanchez), outraised) a Republican statewide in Texas?  Doesn't happen often.

That's our point .. the conventional wisdom is changing. A Republican could outspend White or Sharp in this race, but it will be Dewhurst or Abbott, not any of the candidates currently running.

That is, unless Roger Williams decides to dip further into his car dealer fortune.

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by: David Mauro @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 15:41:49 PM UTC

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re: (0.00 / 0)

We will see about that.

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by: Corbin Casteel @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 15:46:34 PM UTC

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I'm willing to bet (0.00 / 0)

Let's bet: Michael Williams will not raise more money than Bill White.

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by: David Mauro @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 16:45:43 PM UTC

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Not to rain on a parade (0.00 / 0)

But are the currently serving elected officials on a fund raising ban during the legislative session?

Don't know. Just asking.

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by: DyspepTex @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 15:29:46 PM UTC

Yes (0.00 / 0)

However, I don't think that takes away from the advantage.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 15:50:35 PM UTC

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Abbott and Dewhurst Problems (0.00 / 0)

I haven't checked recently, but Abbott was sitting on MILLIONS of dollars in his campaign account ($6-8 million I think). He cannot transfer ONE DIME to a federal election. He will start at ground zero. Dewhurst is rich. He can self fund. Abbott cannot.  

And neither one of them can shore up support after these other Republicans have been out courting precinct chairs and others for a half year.

So Abbott is not real unless he honestly believes he can generate $15-20 million in 4 months time at $2400 a pop. I think he is waiting to take that pile of cash to run for Lite Gov if Dew runs for senate. Dewhurst could still do this, but he is not being smart about preserving his base. No GOPer is playing a very smart game to keep their intra-party opposition out.  

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by: McKinney @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 15:48:28 PM UTC

Also (0.00 / 0)

Dewhurst is a soft boiled egg that couldn't handle the pressure of a real campaign.  

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 15:51:40 PM UTC

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I tend to agree with you (0.00 / 0)

but he did beat Sharp by 6 points or so in 2002.

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by: David Mauro @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 17:48:05 PM UTC

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Post 9/11 (0.00 / 0)

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 18:39:13 PM UTC

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He won't need that much. (0.00 / 0)

A sitting Repub statewide like Abbott could probably win with half that. But I do agree it makes more sense that Dewhurst would jump into the Senate race upon KBH's resignation and Abbott would slide up to LtGuv.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 16:17:47 PM UTC

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