I know this seems really obvious, but let me just walk this though through. Let us suppose the following things are true.
- Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison plans to run for Governor.
- Gov. Rick Perry is running for re-election.
- Sen. John Cornyn would rather KBH not resign anytime soon lest he lose another GOP Senator before 2010 where he already faces multiple retirements which are giving him headaches as NRSC chair. Also, losing a senate seat in Texas might dent his 2010 Presidential ambitions.
- Every Republican under the sun other than John Cornyn wants KBH to vacate so they can finally move up the GOP foodchain either by running for her Senate seat or other people's seats vacated in their run for her Senate seat.
We accept these things to be true. Here are some conventional outcomes.
Gubernatorial Outcome A: The Weak Democrats Self Fulfilling Outcome:
Kay Bailey Hutchison strikes fear into the hearts of Democratic candidates. Everyone believes her internal polling released 15 months before the primary that shows her beating Rick Perry. Democratic candidate fear having to go up against the woman who has slain other venerable Democrats like Barbara Ann Radnofsky, Gene Kelly, and Richard Fisher. As such, Democrats flee the Governor's race for the relative safety of Hutchison's Senate seat, not knowing when or even if it that door will open to them, recognizing that their ability to run for it is held entirely in the hands of Republicans that don't want them to win it. They leave the Democratic Gubernatorial primary open to the lesser candidates of little interest and off-cycle Democratic primary voters recognize this. These Democratic partisans, seeking their one chance to rid themselves of the hated "Good Hair Perry" abandon their pointless primary in droves to cross over and vote against Perry by way of Hutchison.
Senate Outcome A-1: By allowing the GOP primary electorate to expand beyond the base, with only Perry nipping at her heels from the right, she is successful in beating him in the primary. November of 2010 rolls around, and Hutchison is elected Governor in a mandate election, swapping out "Good Hair" with "Big Hair" from Dallas, giving the Texas GOP a new lease on life and delaying their eventual demographic demise.
Hutchison resigned at a time of her choosing to ensure the the Senate special election falls on the 2010 ballot. Facing little serious competition from Democrats in the gubernatorial general election, soon to be Governor Hutchison spreads her political capital across the ticket to help ensure turnout for the GOP, both in the general election and in the runoff. Democratic candidates who had fled the Governor's race for the Senate race suddenly feel like they are running against Hutchison anyways.
Senate Outcome A-2: Perry, being the skillful politician he really is, hangs on and defeats Hutchison in the primary. Just like in 2006, an unpopular Governor winds up getting re-elected in the general election because the Democrats didn't get their act together in the Governor's race.
Hutchison, convinced by Cornyn that the national GOP couldn't afford to lose her seat, didn't resign from the Senate during the primary (part of the reason she lost the primary unexpectedly). This is good news for her since she still has her job, but bad news for the Democrats. Not only have they mistakenly let the Governorship slip through their fingers in lieu of an open Senate seat, now there's no longer an open Senate seat as Hutchinson remains in office at leas through 2012.
In either of these cases, we would likely see the Democratic field in the Senate primary spend time attacking each other as they jockey for a place in near-guaranteed runoff. They might attack the GOP candidates, but only if doing so give them a political advantage over the other Democrat by doing so. Remember, the prize is their own runoff spot, not trying to pick or predict which Republican they get in a runoff with.
Do you think these scenarios are overblown? I admit, I'm trying to make a point, so I get to write the story. But as readers, having lived through the 1998 and 2006 elections in Texas, does this seem familiar to you? Democrats are used to crossing over to vote in GOP primaries if that's where they feel the general election is going to be decided- it's been happening in rural Texas for decades.
The "Kay Bailey is invincible so let's not challenge her" vs "Kay Bailey is invincible because we don't challenge her" argument is a chicken and the egg scenario- it doesn't matter which one is right, both choices are foul (and fowl).
How do we solve this? Here's my simple solution.
- Run for Governor.
- Attack Hutchison
I know it seems crazy, and it takes risk, but I think this model pays dividends.
Gubernatorial Outcome B: I believe that we underestimate Rick Perry's ability to win a gubernatorial primary against Hutchison. Remember, he's a sitting Governor, and he has nothing to lose. He's going to play for keeps, he will occupy the religious right, and he will attack Hutchison mercilessly from the right, but only from the right. Hutchison's only hope, as outlined above, is to pull enough moderates in as new voters or from the Democratic primary to defeat Perry.
What we need is a strong gubernatorial candidate, maybe even one of the existing Senatorial candidates (hint, hint), to be running for Governor for 2 primary reasons.
- To Attack Hutchison from the left.
- To give Democrats a reason to stay out of the GOP primary.
By attacking Hutchison from the left, it helps disqualify her as an option for Democratic voters that might be tempted to cross over and vote for her, while also further raising suspicions about her among GOP voters. Heck, our nominee can join in with Perry's attacks on Hutchison if they want to; the point is that the more people that are deflating the hot air that is in Kay Bailey's Big Hair balloon, the better. This results in 2 possibly outcomes.
- Hutchison Still Defeats Perry: While not ideal, we've probably accomplished something. A Democratic nominee likely has a more weakened Hutchison than would have otherwise. Having opened up new lines of attack from the left, Hutchison still has to satisfy the right, her base. Perry will make the base hate Kay Bailey in the process of him losing, but in this case, there is a Democrat there and able to take advantage of the opportunity. The myth of invincibility around Hutchison is finally brought down to realistic levels. A tough race, to be sure, but at least she's not getting a free pass and spending her time funneling resources into saving her senate successor or others on the ticket.
- Perry Defeats Hutchison: With the help of additional attacks against Hutchison, we've achieved multiple wonderful things. Primarily, our gubernatorial candidate is now facing Perry, a winnable race. We've helped to either
- eliminate Kay Bailey from the political scene if she had already resigned to run for Governor, or if she hadn't already resigned
- seriously damage her future, be it in the U.S. Senate, running for re-election in 2012 for the Senate, or running for any other office. She could just retire altogether.
I think this final outcome is more likely than we think if we are willing to pursue it. It's a huge payoff, and in my view, why it makes a lot of sense for Democrats to consider the Governor's race seriously. It puts us in the driver's seat, unlike running for the mythically non-vacant Senate seat which is the easy man's out, and out of our control. |
