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2012 Reality Check: The Burnt Orange Report Perspective


by: Burnt Orange Report

Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 03:11 PM CST


Conventional wisdom is a tough nut to crack; once it sets in, people naturally reinforce it. Most will take the conventional wisdom, add a lemon twist to it, and call it their own - aligning robotically behind its truthiness and anointing themselves king of the castle. Others unintentionally reinforce it by strongly opposing it; yet, in the need to feel reasonable, they concede a few points of the conventional wisdom, giving credence to the safe thinking all the same.

The conventional wisdom du jour at Texas Monthly is that Craddick will be re-elected Speaker of the House. Oh no, wait, that was last month. Now it is that Texas Democrats can't win a statewide office.

Of course, this isn't really new conventional wisdom. It's not like we didn't see this coming. In mid-December 2008, all three political voices on the Texas Monthly website - Evan Smith (President & Editor in Chief), Paul Burka (Senior Executive Editor), and Eileen Smith (formerly of In the Pink) - rose in groupthink unison to decry the decisions by John Sharp and Bill White to enter the U.S. Senate race and, a full 23 months before the November 2010 elections, declare that Texas Democrats had screwed up again.

But that wasn't enough. So sure of his opinion, Evan Smith went forward and produced a brief piece in Newsweek explaining to the whole country reasons why Texas Democrats won't win in upcoming statewide elections. Backed by the strength of lazy statistics and sleek writing, conventional wisdom purveyed by the 20th century gatekeepers of Texas politics - Texas Monthly - went national.

And so, here we are, talking about a non-existent problem for a race that is still at least 8 months from starting and 22 months from finishing.

We can continue reporting on the electoral successes of Texas Democrats across the state; yet, moving from an 88-62 split to a 76-74 split in three election cycles is only "modest" progress for Texas Monthly.

We can write about how Rick Noriega raised over $1 million online through ActBlue - more than any other non-Presidential candidate this cycle - despite the fact that his campaign never took off like it should have; yet, his campaign will always be viewed for its failures, because having "no strong candidate at the top of the ticket" is automatically prescribed to any Democrat atop the ticket, strong or not.

We can write about how winning two-thirds of the Hispanic vote is a tremendous accomplishment for a political party; yet, Perry and Bush will be the ones lauded for winning one-third of the Hispanic vote, demonstrating how dramatically ignorant some can be when it comes to understanding the voting patterns of the Hispanic community.

We can write until we're blue in the fists. One day it will matter enough for Texas Democrats. As of today, we're not there yet.

We're not there until Texas Democrats, as a whole, reject the conventional wisdom of Texas Monthly -- and those that inform, repeat, and defend their positions -- and start to believe in a statewide candidate. We're not there until Democrats, and not Republicans, are given the benefit of the doubt by those of their own party. We're not there until Democratic leaders -- not to mention Democratic donors -- are given the time and patience to set up their moves - instead of having to hear, 22 months before Election Day, that it's already a lost cause.
Most importantly, we're not there until someone takes us there.

We know and believe that Texas Democrats can win statewide in 2010. Glenn Smith has already laid out the case to Evan; his numbers  are logical and impeccable. But no amount of discussion can change the minds of some; and as we saw in the Speaker's race, even action will sometimes prevent the purveyors of groupthink from believing. When is Craddick supposed to run again for Speaker?

If you want to believe the conventional wisdom, you will only live it. You will fall into its trap, be captured by its comfort, and ultimately make the prophecy true. Or, you can stand up, step up, and do something about it.

It is humbling to have our words anticipated along with Glenn Smith and Matt Angle- two great voices of our party.  

The reality is, we're all ready to do something about it in 2010. We're ready to make that $1 million that Noriega raised online look like child's play. We're ready to put all of our talents, all of our time, and all of our treasure into a Democrat running for Governor in 2010. We know it can happen, but more importantly, we believe it can happen.

We need you to run. We need to be ready to work in our own backyard. We need to fund our candidates for the first time in decades.  

President Barack Obama has shown us that kingmaker politics has come to an end. Power can come from the top or bottom, and imagine a Texas where favor is curried from both ends equally.

The solutions are simple. We need  true coordination statewide among Democratic campaigns. We need national support in our local, state, and federal races. We need to stop exporting our Texas talent and dollars. As long as we allow our best trained and active volunteers to campaign in Louisiana, New Mexico, and Colorado first, we will never win the big races. The same goes for the dollars spent in supporting candidates across the country. Texas has exported so much for the good of our country, and now it is time for us to be selfish.

Nobody said it would be easy to win in 2010 or beyond, but nothing worth doing ever is.

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Doing what we can (0.00 / 0)
We're a small county with a small number of precinct chairs that have gotten some hands on experience during the general election but it was mostly GOTV. We're about to embark on a concerted campaign move the political center and oust a certain long serving state rep using tools and techniques learned from Robert Creamer's book "Stand Up Straight", Saul Alinsky's "Rules for Radicals" and George Lakoff's "Don't Think of an Elephant". We may not succeed in by 2010 but there's always 2012 so we'll just continue to build on our efforts.

If each county works to change the debate from "tax relief", "tort reform" and "environmental regulations" to "tax breaks for the wealthy paid for by taking food from poor kids", "justice and fairness for individuals" and "protecting health" we'll pick up swing voters for all candidates up and down the ballot.

The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. -- John Kenneth Galbraith


It is up to the volunteer to choose his or her path (0.00 / 0)
"We need to stop exporting our Texas talent and dollars. As long as we allow our best trained and active volunteers to campaign in Louisiana, New Mexico, and Colorado first, we will never win the big races."

______

Personally, I think it is up to the volunteer to decide where they want to work.  It is not up to others to "allow" people to go out of state.  It isn't servitude.  They aren't YOUR volunteers.  They have minds of their own

People made decisions to go out of state and I imagine they were happy that they did so -- everybody that I talked to that did so was ecstatic.  If that is a problem for some in Texas, tough.


Perhaps A Poor Choice of Wording... (0.00 / 0)
...but a very worthwhile sentiment.

Yes, you're exactly right that the decision is up to the volunteer as to where she or he goes and who she or he works for.

However, raising money to pay for and recruiting candidates to motivate our Texas talent to take a second look ought to be priorities in order to give our best and brightest viable alternatives here in-state.

This nut really has two parts to crack from where I sit. The first thing is that going to work on races in other states is usually more about the bigger experience than it is about politics. In what other line of work do you get to meet scads of new folks in your age group who are all super motivated about politics AND get paid to live in a part of the country you've never lived in before? That list is pretty short.

The second thing...and, in my mind, the most important...is that once these folks have built up some campaign chops elsewhere, we need to be able to have coordinated campaigns set up and running here that they can come back and contribute to if they so choose. From those coordinated campaigns flow the local, state and national races.

Look, it's going to be a long road for most of us not in Travis, Dallas or Harris counties. The good news is that it's a road that we've already started down. All over this state we have possibilities for candidates who've run from everything from County Commissioner to the Texas State House to lay down some lessons learned that can help the next generation of candidates, staff and volunteers. We can build off these lessons learned, hopefully in coordinated campaigns, to improve our next generation of activism. By doing this, we can lay a foundation of county infrastructure and campaign infrastructure that will make our subsequent election cycles more attractive to our Texas talent.


[ Parent ]
Some thoughts... (0.00 / 0)
I don't necessarily think that going to work on races in other states is usually more about the bigger experience than it is about politics.  People go where they think they can make the most difference which is a critical element of politics.

The coordinated campaign concept is extremely worthwhile, but it never seems to go anywhere.  I imagine money may be part of it.

Finally, I will note here in Northeast Texas, that many of those who went out of state were not "party regulars."  My guess is that they were wary of the "we're too good for anyone else" attitude that can exist here.  They were much more motivated than many of the local party insiders and were attracted by the Obama campaign's direct approach.  Quite frankly, many of these party insiders may oblivious to these motivated volunteers -- they are often too interested in pettiness and inertia to notice


[ Parent ]
Nice Goal (0.00 / 0)
But I am worried as to how much funding and organization can be put in place by 2010. The Texas Democratic party only has so much money and is not swimming in the dough like some other state parties, or even our counter part, the Republicans of Texas. That money goes to hire and train activists and precinct chairs and there's only so much to go around.

For example, huge progress was made in Dallas, Travis, and Harris this cycle, but there is more to be done like we did in the Valley and Bexar county, especially Nueces County as well as those where progress has been made. Additionally, we are losing ground in East Texas, we need some help there if we want to hold our ground.

By precinct in Galveston County had 1300 voters this year and went 80-20 for McCain (~290 Obama votes). One down ballot democrat got close to 470 votes here and she had a little bit of a field program in my neighborhood. Our current precinct chair is just an older person who does very little, if anything. Now, we're working on turning things around, but it's only one neighborhood. How many more precincts are like this, especially in the Valley or Bexar county?

The goal is right, but is there the money and people to back it up?

And yes, I will work on my neighborhood to give better results in 2010 and do my part.


Obviously (0.00 / 0)
Texas Monthly sees it all as "entertainment," while some of us correctly see it as life and death.

Glenn Smith's brilliant response should be the one in Newsweek.

But the rest of the country just wants to forget Texas and any of its politicians and politics for a very long time. Evan Smith is the right Smith for that job. Sleek writing, indeed. Shiny. And magnificently stupid.


All points are good, including TM's points (0.00 / 0)
It's funny. I finally got the chance to dig through Evan's piece and all the commentary on it. I didn't find anything shocking in any of the pieces. Entertaining all around but also enlightening.

Four years is a lot of time between elections. Can we flip Texas in 2012? Sure. Can we lose even more ground? Sure. It all depends on what happens during those four years as to what will be outcome. If Obama and Congress achieve success we have the opportunity to win and win big. If Obama stagnates during those four years we have a challenge ahead. If Obama and Congress fail or something drastic happens during those four years we stand to lose and lose big. So Evan could be right, Glenn could be right and Matt could be right. As I've said before predicting the outcome of elections in the future is fun and foolish. But it doesn't damn the efforts.

Now regarding the efforts, Evan makes some interesting points we should consider and take action such as fielding strong statewide candidates. Glenn mentions some other points that we should build upon such as capitalizing on the bad aspects of the Rs. Matt brings out some very good points at the end of his piece we ought to take to heart such as building a strong statewide party effort for elections. But none of those three nor anyone else in here has the ability to predict what's going to happen in 2010 much less 2012.

One thing I do caution is that we should not bank on the numbers of 2008 as our basis for success. That year was an anomaly in elections. We may never see it again. The primary alone pulled us together as Ds, something that may not happen in 2012 because we'll be electing an incumbent. Get ready again for those boring primary nights where it's just you and maybe another die-hard at the caucus.

I'm willing to see how this year progresses and if we truly start building on 2008 like we keep saying we will. If we fall back into our old ways we're destined to repeat the past and Texas will stay red.


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