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Texas Round-Up


by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 03:43 PM CDT


  • Matt gives us a heads up on a letter being circulated around the dome urging the Senate to, well, fix the House's mess. 13 groups signed on very quickly. Check it out.

  • Congressman John Carter-R went to Iraq. Guess who he met and didn't know it at the time? His Democratic challenger's son. Mary Beth Harrell is sure to have some fun with this so go check out the story at Kos or in the Washington Post.

  • Kuff has statements from Democratic Rep. Villarreal and Rep. Noriega on why he voted with the Republican leadership on HB 3. (Note: Our apologies for the quick post and getting Noriega's vote mixed up. Noriega voted against HB 3 with most Democrats and 16 Republicans. Our deepest apologies!) We hear that Vince over at Capitol Annex will have some words from Rep. Strama and Rep. Howard soon enough...

  • Here are the internals from the SUSA Governor's poll. I didn't expect those 18-24 to be Perry's strongest demographic and Bell's weakest (48%-Perry, 12%-Bell). Other points, check the gender gap in Freidman's support- women are not impressed. But the claim that Friedman sucks away from the liberal base of Bell's does seem to be true. Looking at Party support we see the following...

    Republicans
    Perry (65%)
    Strayhorn (20%)
    Friedman (10%)
    Bell (2%)

    Democrats
    Bell (32%)
    Strayhorn (30%)
    Perry (16%)
    Freidman (15%)

    Independent
    Friedman (32%)
    Strayhorn (26%)
    Perry (25%)
    Bell (10%)

    Also interesting trends, Friedman's support increases by about 10 points the more educated and higher income the voter gets. Perry's support falls by 14 points the more educated voters get.


  • Sign up for the Democratic Party National Canvass! There will be an event this Saturday over at the TDP HQ. Sign up if you are in Austin or search for other events across the state here.

  • Speaking of a 50 state strategy, when was the last time Wyoming was in play? I can't wait until we have a 254 County strategy in play in Texas, including the 100+ west of I-35.

  • So, I've recently like totally become a fan of Jack's Mannequin.
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Texas Round-Up | 21 comments
Oh for Pete's Sake (0.00 / 0)
Don't kinky and strayhorn both see that they can not win in this 4 way debacle, that the only likely winner is Perry?

No way can or will the Dem. candidate drop out of the race, strayhorn has to realize this and frankly who cares about kinky, he isn't enough of a player in the numbers to make a huge difference, HE KNOWS he can't win regardless of the match up.

Surely Kinky and Strayhorn both want Perry out of office worse than they want the office for themselves, isn't that the real goal, if it is then they both should have the decency and the brains to drop out and make this a real race, one that someone other than Perry has a snowballs chance of winning.

This is just soooo frustrating

Prisoner of hope.


Where the Kinkster voters may have been (1.00 / 1)
Chris Bell may have won the primary but unfortunately the 4% who voted overwhelmingly for him obviously did not necessarily represent the other 96%.  Some of whom would have supported Gammage. But won't support Bell. For whatever reason.  This is the same 4% that forced Barbara Radnofsky into a runoff with Gene Kelly. 

If we wanted a "Caped Crusader" we would write-in Batman. Now he's filing an ethics complaint against Perry and hiding behind "ethical concerns" about the funding of ads supporting Perry's tax plan.  Which Ronnie Earle apparently refused to allow to become another "political platform" for Chris Bell. Apparently Ronnie Earle read the House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct. After the election, Mr. Bell.

No offense to anyone in particular but apparently Chris Bell, like Rick Perry, loses support proportionately with regard to the intelligence of the voters.


[ Parent ]
Don't know about intelligence (0.00 / 0)
But Chris Bell gains support with regard to the education of the voters - his lowest numbers among 'No College' and highest among 'Grad School.'

[ Parent ]
true (0.00 / 0)
But the spread is within the margin of error and far less pronounced that Kinky's or Perry's trends. But yes, you are correct.

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

[ Parent ]
Re-reading (0.00 / 0)
Proportionally, Bell doesn't gain as fast as Kinky Carol. My first read had BS claiming that Bell went down, which was the claim I was rebutting. I guess her claim is within the bounds of acceptable political spin in this day and age.

[ Parent ]
Well back to the 4% (1.00 / 1)
This is the same 4% that put Barbara Radnofsky into a runoff. Obviously not the brightest light bulbs.

Better educated usually means higher income bracket.  You can certainly note that in Chris Bell's campaign finance totals.  The high IQ types in the high income brackets are obviously sending him those big fat checks.



[ Parent ]
Strayhorn has great cross cutting numbers (0.00 / 0)
I think Strayhorn's numbers in all 3 categories show that she can win the race.

I am a Perry supporter, but I am nervous that things could quickly turn in Strayhorn's favor.

I am amazed at the money, and poll results that Kinky has gotten lately...

Conservative Yet Pragmatic


[ Parent ]
Kinky Carol? (1.00 / 1)
"Bell doesn't gain as fast as Kinky Carol."

Carol is kinky? 


[ Parent ]
Minus the hat and seegar <rimshot> (0.00 / 0)
Of course, you should see her when I wear the Rick Perry mask with the pink tutu

[ Parent ]
My Little Look at the 18-34 Group (0.00 / 0)
I spent yesterday "getting to know" one of my relatives in Houston [age 27, from Spring (reverentially always referred to as "The Woodlands,"), law student, economically priveleged since birth, parents always funding  new cars (beamers), european vatcations, etc.] by studying her MySpace page. I considered all of her likes/dislikes, groups, claims, and comments and then surveyed the same for all of her friends, ranging in age from 20 to 29.

What struck me the most was the "groupiness": not many ever seem to do anything alone, and everyone (all were either in school, grad or law or MBA school, etc., not working, and with plenty of money to travel and party) stated how close they were to parents and family, all had many MyGroups listed, all posted photos of themselves with many others, all wearing shirts emblazoned with school or club names. There was absolutely no mention of politics. Most of the best-liked books and movies seemed more appropriate for 12- to 15-year-olds (Harry Potter; Finding Nemo), or just were pop-culture stuff (Dan Brown's books). These are the priveleged of Harris/Montgomery counties, and all I see is group-think and a solid Republican voting block in the future, when they start paying taxes (most of their parents are totally anti-tax: the Cherry Tree Republicans, I think they call themselves). Chris Bell doesn't stand a chance, now or ever. My elderly mom, a true old Texas Dem, feels awfully lonely anymore in Houston.


[ Parent ]
IF they drop out, Bell can't win (0.00 / 0)
There's nothing easy about this. Bell is going to have to pull D's back himself and he's going to have to aggressive.

[ Parent ]
Oh and by the way (0.00 / 0)
funny you should mention it

I'm working on a 27 county strategy as I write.


Prisoner of hope.


nice (0.00 / 0)
Which ones? or at least roundabouts where? That size sounds like a Senate District to me if I had to guess.

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

[ Parent ]
U.S. congressional district actually (5.00 / 1)
I'll let you figure out which one.

give you a hint

it's west of I-35

Prisoner of hope.


[ Parent ]
TX-19 (0.00 / 0)
I have to say, that is one of the funniest damn shapes of a district.  Mine in TX-11 doesn't even have a challenger so. :(

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

[ Parent ]
ahh dude (0.00 / 0)
feel free to join my army of volunteers in 19 aka, the witches shoe

Prisoner of hope.

[ Parent ]
Mary Beth Harrell (0.00 / 0)
I loved the photo of Carter and Mary Beth's son- just points up even more what a "chicken hawk" Carter is. I don't know if he ever served (if so, it isn't on his website, and if he did, I'm pretty sure it would be there.)Cater's website mentions his 4 sons, but nothing about any of them serving, either. Meanwhile, Mary Beth's sons are not only in our military, but on active duty in Iraq.
She's a terrific candidate, and I hope that some real money gets behind her.
Kathi

Kathi Thomas, SD 25

It seems most of yall missed the most important statistic in the poll... (3.00 / 2)
45% of the hispanic vote goes to rick perry.

Ya'll ignored the most important thing KT said!!! (0.00 / 0)
Jack's Mannequin is a band that I too am embarrased to say I like...  as if Something Corporate wasn't bad enough, now I'm a fan of the spinoff!!! :)

Overall Numbers (0.00 / 0)
No one has mentioned the overall result of the poll --

Perry - 39%
Strayhorn -- 25%
Friedman -- 16%
Bell -- 15%

Someone said it's time for Bell to get aggressive.  Don't hold your breath!  If you want to beat Perry this year, it is Strayhorn or nothing. 

And yes, Perry gets 40% of the white vote but 45% of the Hispanic vote.  Verrry interestink! 


Texas Round-Up | 21 comments
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